On the night of December 3rd, an army drone targeted a religious gathering in northwest Nigeria, killing at least 85 civilians and injuring 66 others during the observance of the Prophet Muhammad's birthday (Maulud). The Nigerian army has taken responsibility, clarifying that it was conducting a routine mission against bandits but inadvertently affected the civilian community. The Nigerian military probably employed Turkish-made armed drones, leading to this unintended outcome. Unfortunately, this is not the first time Turkish drones have been involved in civilian killings in Africa.
Local media reports shed some light on the strike. According to these reports, the army received intelligence on bandits planning to abduct people during the Maulud and called for air support. Suspecting something unusual due to the presence of soldiers around, the bandits called off their plan. However, the drone operators did not receive the latest updates and decided to proceed with the strikes.
To this end, an independent Nigerian analysis firm indicates that a military reconnaissance operation, deploying a Bayraktar TB2, targeted a group suspected to be armed bandits. In the same vein, the New York Times reported that an initial U.S. assessment concluded that the drone used in the strike was Turkish-made. The Nigerian army acquired TB2s last year and has been known to operate them since. Therefore, it is likely that the drones in question are Turkish Bayraktar TB2s.
In this context, we witness that a gloomy pattern has started to emerge regarding the death of civilians with drone strikes. First, there is a large gathering in a nearby conflict zone. It can be a hostile gathering such as insurgents or terrorists preparing for an attack. Or it could be a wedding, a funeral, a marketplace, a refugee camp, a school, or a religious festivity, i.e. an innocent occasion. Second, the military makes a rushed decision over this gathering, involving misinterpreted data or wrong intel. Third, the military carries out a strike with Turkish or Chinese-made armed drones.
The latest deadly drone attack in Nigeria, in which at least 85 civilians were killed follows this pattern. The reconnaissance mission observed the movement of people suspected of being bandits, misinterpreted their pattern of activities, and then carried out a strike, as stated by the Nigerian army spokesperson Brigadier General Onyema Nwachukwu.
Another notable example was the Ethiopian Air Forces' TB2 deployment against Tigrayan rebels in January 2022. The Ethiopian Air Forces targeted an internally displaced people camp, resulting in the death of more than 60 civilians. There are also other instances where TB2s are suspected of causing civilian casualties in Africa.
Turkey typically displays utter indifference to the involvement of their drones in the killing of civilians in Africa, whether the incidents are allegedly accidental or intentional. As usual, there was not a word from the Turkish government on the latest strike in Nigeria. While Turkish media covered the incident, mostly through direct translation from the West, there was not even a single mention of a possible involvement of Turkish drones. Several Turkish media outlets, however, have celebrated that the Nigerian government was interested in procuring more arms from Turkey, including TB2 platforms.
As discussed in our report at instituDE on the proliferation of Bayraktar TB2 Drones and their associated risks, the deployment of armed drones in military operations raises concerns about potential civilian casualties. Even with the best intentions, drone operators may be susceptible to mistakes. Therefore, it is crucial for Turkey to provide extensive and substantiated training for drone operators in Africa. More importantly, Turkey must refrain from exporting its arms to governments that may deploy them against civilians. Failure to do so will undoubtedly result in more civilian casualties, further tarnishing Turkey's perception across the continent.
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