Turkey's Syria Calculations Amid U.S. Troop Withdrawal from Iraq

Turkey's Syria Calculations Amid U.S. Troop Withdrawal from Iraq

Washington and Baghdad have reportedly agreed on the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq, aligning with the U.S.'s broader tendency of disengaging from the Middle East. Under the proposed plan, the US troops are expected to leave Iraq by the end of 2026, with phased withdrawals that will likely have ripple effects beyond Iraq's borders. Turkey is likely to welcome the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, viewing it as a gain that could expedite the U.S.'s exit from Syria.

Currently, the U.S. maintains around 2,500 troops in Iraq and approximately 900 in Syria, aimed at preventing an ISIS resurgence and supporting The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which controls large areas in northeastern Syria. The initial phase of the withdrawal will involve hundreds of U.S. and coalition troops departing from Baghdad, western Iraq, and other key locations by next September, followed by a drawdown in Erbil by the end of 2026. A small contingent of U.S. forces is anticipated to stay on in Iraq in an advisory role, providing logistical support for American troops stationed in Syria. This suggests that the U.S. intends, among other things, to keep its supply lines to Syria open for as long as possible. The lack of an official announcement this week indicates that Washington and Baghdad have yet to finalize the details of the withdrawal.

The U.S. withdrawal is also likely to create a power vacuum in eastern Syria. The potential reduction of U.S. troops raises concerns for the SDF, which has relied heavily on U.S. military assistance to maintain its control over northeastern Syria. Although American officials have assured more than once that the withdrawal from Iraq does not currently include Syria, the changing dynamics in the region suggest that this could merely be a temporary stance. The logistics of sustaining U.S. operations in Syria are dependent on the support routed through northern Iraq. If U.S. forces reduce their presence in Iraq, the ability to maintain effective operations in Syria may be compromised. Additionally, pressure from Baghdad—driven by Iran—could further disrupt this support, leaving the SDF increasingly isolated.

For Turkey, this development might provide new opportunities to advance its strategic interests in Syria. Ankara views the SDF as an extension of the PKK, a terrorist organization according to Turkey and the US, and sees any empowerment of the SDF as a direct threat to its national security. Turkish officials have previously threatened military operations against the SDF in northeastern Syria. Up until now, the presence of U.S. forces in Syria has acted as a deterrent for large Turkish military operations. 

While the Pentagon has conveyed its intention to continue supporting the SDF with weapons such as air defense systems, the withdrawal will inevitably complicate logistics. Past U.S. commitments to the SDF have been undermined by political decisions, such as President Trump's orders to partially withdraw U.S. forces from Syria. It remains possible that the current military commitment could be reversed or weakened by future political shifts. Turkey will likely try to exploit any ambiguity in U.S. policy, employing its proxies to consolidate control over strategic territories in Syria. Although a full-scale Turkish intervention is not guaranteed, Ankara could still use the changing situation to encroach further upon SDF-held areas.

On the other hand, if the U.S. presence becomes less effective due to logistical constraints or a full pullback, the Assad regime, backed by Russia and Iran, may see an opening to reassert control over areas currently held by the SDF. This raises the risk of renewed conflict in eastern Syria. In this context, the SDF may be forced to negotiate with regional actors, including Turkey and the Syrian government, to secure its future. These negotiations would, however, require the SDF to make considerable concessions.

The US withdrawal from Iraq will have implications for Syria, especially as it raises the possibility of a U.S. withdrawal from Syrian territory in the mid-term. The SDF’s future now hinges on its ability to navigate this increasingly precarious geopolitical landscape, where it might have to come to terms with either Damascus or Ankara. Nonetheless, the undermining of the SDF is a strategic goal for the Turkish government. In Turkey's eyes, a reduced U.S. presence is not just a military advantage but also a diplomatic one, as it would force the SDF to reconsider its alliances and strategies, pushing them to come to terms that are favorable to Ankara.

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