This week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivered two passionate speeches, strongly criticizing the Israeli government. This is not his first critique of Israel since the recent outbreak of the Israel-Palestine crisis, which began on October 7. He condemned Israel when it initiated its air campaign against Gaza and expressed support for Hamas, refraining from condemning the organization for its actions on October 7. While strong emotions and anger marked Erdogan's recent speeches, it may be more related to fulfilling the expectations of his constituents rather than reflecting a change of heart.
Since the Hamas attack on October 7, Erdogan has endorsed a more balanced policy emphasizing the ceasefire and humanitarian aid for the civilians. Turkey’s decision to normalize its relations with the regional actors, the high cost of ideological foreign policy endeavors, the Islamist group's lack of transformative potential, and the concern to protect the Turkish-American relations further pressures are the factors that have encouraged Ankara to act cautiously in the latest episode of Israel-Palestine crisis. So, instead of using the crisis for populism, the Turkish government has so far kept its tone and action in tune with other regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt.
However, on Tuesday and Saturday, President Erdogan gave very emotional speeches that revoke the images of his Arab Spring performance in 2011. His address to the Parliament on Tuesday and great Palestine demonstration on Saturday have raised questions about whether Turkey was changing its track and embracing a more ideological course, as it did before. During the Arab Spring, particularly in Libya and Syria, and later in the 2017 Qatar crisis, President Erdogan made radical policy changes that contradicted his earlier statements. In those crises, Erdogan failed to maintain his initial restrained attitude by becoming a party to the conflict. Likewise, this Tuesday’s speech seems to be a rupture that might indicate a change in Ankara’s policy towards Israel.
As a matter of fact, Erdogan’s speech contains elements that indicate both the continuation of Turkey’s restrained policy and a change towards a more ideological stance. In contrast to his criticisms of Israel, he depicted Hamas as freedom fighters. President Erdogan and his party have always been sympathetic towards the group. Turkey has never recognized Hamas as a terrorist organization. Thus, Erdogan’s praise for Hamas as liberators is not a policy change, but Turkey, except Iran and Qatar, is the only state actor that has expressed such a strong support for the group.
More interestingly, Erdogan mentioned military force in both speeches albeit in broader regional contexts instead of Gaza. He equated Turkey’s role in the Middle East to its role in Libya and Karabakh – two conflicts that Turkey provides military support to its allies. ‘We can come all of a sudden one night,’ Erdogan said, using his catchphrase threat.
On the other hand, in both speeches, Erdogan directed his criticisms more against the West, particularly the US, rather than Israel. Contrary to his persistent record of the last decade, President Erdogan has abstained from depicting Israel as a ‘terror state.’ Instead, since October 7, he insistently accused Israel of acting like an organization, a carefully chosen word to deny a government legitimacy it should enjoy. Moreover, he said that Turkey will not take populist measures without any strategy, emphasizing statecraft. Despite the emotional tone of his speech, these statements suggest that Turkey's restrained approach continues.
Indeed, there are some concrete signs that Turkey will continue to show restraint. First, Turkish journalist Fehim Tastekin reported that after the October 7 crisis, Ankara asked Hamas leaders to leave the country. Second, before his speech, President Erdogan signed the protocols on Sweden’s NATO membership and sent it to the Parliament. With this move, Ankara likely hoped to soften the atmosphere in Western capitals before giving a tirade to Israel. Also, Turkey has not called its Tel Aviv ambassador back to Ankara or given a diplomatic note to the Israeli Embassy in Ankara.
Although Erdogan’s open embracement of Hamas is noteworthy, his criticisms of Israel are not different from what the Jordanian King and Egyptian leader say. As Saudi Arabia froze normalization talks with Israel, Erdogan announced freezing natural gas exploration activities with Israel. Likewise, it is an interesting fact that the Speaker of the UAE’s Federal National Council, Saqr Ghobash, attended Saturday’s Palestine demonstration in Istanbul together with Erdogan. In other words, Turkey’s steps seem coherent with other regional actors.
Erdoğan’s speeches mark a change from Ankara’s more conciliatory tone to a more outraged language against Israel. And, given the increasing tension and huge civilian losses, a policy change will remain as a possibility for Ankara. Yet, given Erdogan’s performance in the previous crises, all seems quiet in Ankara for now.
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