About eight years after the migration deal with Turkey in 2016, the European Union seeks to make a similar agreement, this time with Tunisia. President of European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte paid a visit to Tunis on June 11 and had discussions with Tunisian President Kais Saied. The main topic was a “comprehensive partnership package” in which the EU has offered financial assistance of more than 1 billion euros to assist the ailing Tunisian economy in return for ending the migrant crossings to Europe. As Leyen outlined at a press conference, the proposal includes an immediate injection of 150 million euros into the Tunisian budget to support the IMF reform plan, along with 900 million euros in 'macro-financial assistance' in the long term. Additionally, the EU will release 105 million euros this year to reinforce Tunisia's capabilities for border management, search and rescue operations, and anti-smuggling.
The details of the partnership have not been made public yet. However, as stated on the EU Commission’s website, the package will focus on four areas: bolstering economic and commercial relations, partnership in sustainable energy, combating illegal migration, and fostering people-to-people contacts by extending Erasmus-like student exchange programmes. Dutch Premier Mark Rutte stated that they reached an “excellent agreement” to tackle the “cynical business model of boat smugglers.” He underlined that migration is one of the most important issues the EU is facing at the moment. Ursula von der Leyen said that an agreement is expected to be signed at the EU Summit, which will be held at the end of June. A press release on the EU Commission website, confirming Leyen’s expectation, states that Tunisian Foreign Minister and EU Commissioner for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Policy have been mandated to draft a Memorandum of Understanding to be signed by the EU and Tunisia before the end of June 2023, ahead of the EU Summit.
Nevertheless, it seems that the Tunisian government does not share the enthusiasm of the EU leaders. Tunisian President Kais Saied reaffirmed, at a phone call on June 15 with the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, his country's position with regard to the irregular migration and stressed that Tunisia would not be a transit or a settlement country for the migrants. He said Tunisia "can only guard its own borders." Instead, Saied proposed organising an international conference on illegal migration to find a cure for root causes. President Saied reiterated his country’s position when he received French and German Interior Ministers on June 19 by confirming that “Tunisia will not be the gatekeeper of another country, nor will it accept the settlement of immigrants on its soil.”
Saied’s persistent objection to the migration deal with the EU is not limited to his anti-immigrant stance. The EU assistance offer is not unconditional as it is somewhat linked to Tunisia’s ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund. Tunisia is negotiating with the IMF because its economic outlook is deteriorating and its collapsing economy needs immediate foreign financial assistance. Public debts are about 80% of the budget and the country is having difficulty in attracting foreign investors. Fitch Ratings has recently downgraded Tunisia's financial outlook from CCC+ to CCC-, indicating an “intensified financing risk” and increased signs of default. In this vein, talks with the IMF have been at a standstill since October 2022, when a preliminary plan for a $1.9 billion loan was agreed on at the technical level. Nonetheless, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF, said at a press conference in Luxembourg on June 16 that “significant progress” has been made in reaching an agreement with Tunisian authorities.
Although it is still unclear whether a deal with the IMF is a prerequisite for the EU package or not, it makes the situation even more complicated as the Tunisian leadership is unwilling to carry out some key structural reforms required by the IMF program, inter alia, cutting state subsidies for certain products and re-structuring state enterprises. President Kais Saied denounced the IMF conditions as “dictats” and a “serious threat to social peace.” He was referring to the deadly Tunisian riots in 1984 following an agreement with the IMF to raise the prices of bread and cereals.
There is no doubt that Saied is worried about a social explosion, which can bring an end to his newly established authoritarian rule. He can’t be unaware of the fact that making life is getting harder every day for the Tunisians. They are facing harsh economic conditions as consumer prices have an upward trend, which is leading to the meltdown of the households’ purchasing power. If the government cuts subsidies, then the Tunisians will have to buy basic ingredients such as flour, sugar, poultry and dairy products at skyrocketing prices, which might eventually ignite nationwide protests against Saied’s regime.
If the economic crisis in Tunisia deepens, the number of illegal migrants is likely to increase, posing a greater challenge for Europe. This worst-case scenario undoubtedly concerns European countries, particularly Italy, mainly due to its geographical proximity to Tunisia. Italian Lampedusa island is just 180 km (110 miles) from the Tunisian coastal city of Sfax, making Tunisia a preferable departure point for illegal migrants. In recent years, the number of illegal migrants crossing the Mediterranean has reached unprecedented levels. Only in the first three months of 2023, more than 28.000 migrants arrived in Italy, about four times the number of migrants in the same period in the previous year, according to the Italian Ministry of Interior. As of 24 April, this number rose to 36.610, including 2.882 Tunisians, said the same Ministry.
Stopping the migrant boats was a promise Giorgia Meloni, Italian far-right Prime Minister, made during her election campaigns last year. Accordingly, since she came to power, her coalition government has pursued a proactive policy to keep her anti-migrant promises. Thus, it is not surprising that Italy is spearheading the EU initiative to make a deal with Tunisia. Meloni visited Tunisia for the second time in a week, first on June 6 alone and second on June 11 along with der Leyen and Rutte.
Likewise, high-level Italian officials have been engaged in shuttle diplomacy to convince the European and American leaders to provide financial assistance to Tunisia. Prime Minister Meloni called on the IMF to develop a “practical approach” for an international bailout for Tunisia. She reiterated, at a press conference after a meeting in Rome with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, that a destabilised Tunisia will have detrimental repercussions on North Africa, which would eventually affect Europe. Tunisia’s need for financial assistance was also on the agenda of the talks when Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani met his American counterpart Antony Blinken during a visit to the US on June 12.
Intensified diplomatic efforts, along with taking advantage of the rise of anti-immigrant right-wing political parties in Europe, have already started to bear fruit for Italy. It was able to secure a compromise from the EU Interior Ministers meeting, held in Luxembourg on June 8th on migration and asylum. According to the agreed “connection rule,” member states have the flexibility to determine if a country is “safe” to deport the migrants and to define the migrant’s link with the country of return. Moreover, staying in a third country for a period of time will be considered an adequate connection, allowing member states, in this case, Italy, to deport migrants to a transit country such as Tunisia.
If the migration deal comes into effect, migrants whose asylum requests are denied by European countries will be sent back to Tunisia. Nonetheless, the re-admission of migrants will further deteriorate the sensitive situation in Tunisia as the atmosphere is already tense and inhospitable for Sub-Saharan Africans, mainly due to the government’s anti-immigrant policies. President Saied accused on February 21 the African migrants of harming Tunisia’s demographic and Arab-Muslim character and urged Tunisian security forces to take action against undocumented migrants. President’s discriminatory rhetoric incited a wave of attacks and abuses against the Africans in the country. Some African countries had to evacuate their citizens from Tunisia. Saied’s remarks against the African migrants prompted condemnation from the international community. The African Union urged the Tunisian government to avoid “racialised hate speech.” Although President Saied rejects racism accusations, his stance against African migrants is unwavering. Therefore, despite Tunisia’s urgent and desperate need for foreign aid to stabilize its economy, President Saied’s intransigent opposition will likely remain a stumbling block before a migration deal.
Furthermore, President Saied is not alone in opposing the migration deal with the EU. Non-governmental organisations and rights groups have also raised their voices against the EU package. Tunisian Forum for Economic and Social Rights (FTDES) denounced the EU offer as “blackmail”. Romdhane Ben Omar, the spokesperson of FTDES, states that the EU had made a similar proposal to Tunisia in 2014, which Tunisia rejected at that time. Human rights defenders criticised the deal for ignoring the repression in Tunisia, where Kais Saied’s authoritarian leadership has become more severe, particularly in the aftermath of July 25th, 2021, when he dissolved the parliament and grabbed the power in his hands. Lauren Seibert, researcher at Human Rights Watch, expresses concerns about reinforcing the Tunisian security forces, which are accused of committing serious human rights violations and abuses against migrants and asylum seekers. Dutch Premier Rutte stressed “full accordance with human rights”. Nevertheless, the EU leaders have so far failed to take firm and concerted action against the consolidation of authoritarianism in Tunisia. In the face of the dilemma between security and human rights, it seems that the EU prioritizes security at the expense of the latter.
Tunisian political analyst Amine Snoussi is worried that the EU financial aid package may reinforce the autocratic regime in Tunisia as President Saied takes advantage of Europe’s migration fears. As Enes Esen points out in his analysis for INSTITUDE, migration is Europe’s Achilles’ heel. In this regard, it is highly likely that Tunisia's leader will emulate Turkey's Erdogan and exploit the issue of immigration as political leverage against Europe.
The chances of finalizing an agreement before the end of June seem low, if not impossible. There’s only one week left before the expected due date. The European leaders, in particular Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, will definitely intensify their efforts to persuade Kais Saied. Until now, there has been no sign of a compromise. However, a last-minute revision of the partnership package, such as raising the sum of financial aid or easing the conditions of the IMF plan, might be a game-changer. Populist leaders can make U-turns when they see a greater opportunity, and Tunisia’s Kais Saied is no exception.
If Tunisia and the EU agree on a deal, financial assistance may bring short-term relief for Tunisia’s current financial crisis, delaying an immediate economic collapse. Nevertheless, it will not provide a solution to the country's persistent structural economic and social problems. Nor will it end illegal crossings to Europe.
Last but not least, Tunisia has traditionally served as a transit country for African migrants. However, due to the dire social and economic conditions, Tunisia has recently become a source of migration, under Kais Said's iron-fisted rule. EU leaders should recognize that Tunisians, particularly the youth, have lost hope for a promising future in their own country. As such, they embark on perilous journeys across the Mediterranean, risking their lives in an attempt to reach the shores of Europe, all due to the worsening mismanagement within Tunisia.
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