Turkey's Divergence from NATO: A Complex Balance

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s attendance to recent NATO Summit in Washington has not become the reiteration of Turkey’s commitment to the alliance. On the contrary, Turkey's position within NATO has become increasingly divergent, especially highlighted during the recent NATO summit in Washington. As NATO braces itself for stronger measures against China and Russia, Turkey, while signing the declaration, appears to chart its own course regarding these two major powers. Turkey (together with Hungary) has obviously different threat perceptions than the rest of the alliance.

Despite NATO's characterization of China and Russia as primary challenges, Turkey's stance differs significantly. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's attendance at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, where he expressed interest in membership and met with the Chinese leader, underscores Turkey's intention to develop closer ties with Beijing. This follows Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's recent visit to China with a large delegation from the ruling AKP, highlighting a strong political and economic will in Ankara to deepen relations with China.

Regarding Russia, Turkey maintains a complex relationship marked by cooperation and conflict. While Ankara supports Ukraine by providing arms, Erdoğan places significant blame on the West for the ongoing war, rather than on Russia. Moreover, Turkey plays a crucial role in helping Russia bypass Western sanctions, further distancing itself from NATO's unified stance against Moscow.

Despite these divergences, Turkey's continued NATO membership serves several strategic purposes:

1. Institutional and historical ties: Turkey's military and defense industry are deeply integrated with NATO. With nearly 70 years in the alliance, Turkey's military doctrines, organizational culture, and defense technology are intertwined with Western standards. This integration necessitates continued reliance on Western arms and jets, which are compatible with NATO systems, ensuring Turkey's defense industry remains competitive and advanced.

2. Diplomatic leverage: NATO membership provides Turkey with significant leverage in its dealings with Russia and China. The potential to pivot back to Western alliance enhances Turkey's negotiating position, enabling it to secure more concessions from Beijing and Moscow than it might achieve independently.

3. Influence over the U.S. and Europe: NATO is a powerful tool for Turkey in its interactions with the U.S. and European countries. As the U.S. seeks to rally NATO against China and Russia, Turkey's ability to obstruct these efforts enhances its bargaining power. Ankara has used this leverage effectively, notably holding up Sweden's NATO membership for nearly two years until securing U.S. approval for F-16 purchases.

Turkey's strategic use of NATO extends to its domestic and regional agendas. Ankara leverages its NATO membership to address its concerns about dissidents, particularly focusing on the Kurds and the Gulenists. Ankara seeks Western cooperation in extraditing these dissidents and ending U.S. support for Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces in Syria, which has been a longstanding issue between the two countries.

Furthermore, Turkey aims to lift Western-imposed arms sanctions linked to its human rights record. Restrictions on defense exports and technology transfers hinder Turkey's defense industry, and Ankara consistently pressures NATO allies to revoke these limitations.

NATO, constrained by its lack of mechanisms to expel or limit the veto power of a member state, must navigate these challenges delicately. The alliance's leaders frequently engage with Erdoğan, acknowledging Turkey's importance publicly and attempting to address its concerns. Initiatives like the establishment of a counter-terrorism coordination office and the planned 2026 NATO Summit in Turkey are part of these efforts. Additionally, if NATO agrees to appoint a Turkish deputy secretary, it would be another concession to Turkey, which Erdogan requested in exchange for his backing of Mark Rutte’s election to the top NATO position.

Turkey's divergence from NATO is emblematic of its broader geopolitical strategy, clumsy balancing between East and West to maximize its national interests. While NATO remains a crucial pillar of Turkey's defense and diplomatic posture, Ankara's independent foreign policy approach, particularly towards China and Russia, continues to pose challenges for the alliance. At every critical juncture that NATO will face or important step the alliance will take, Western countries will likely need to offer new concessions to Erdoğan to ensure the effective operation of NATO.