Turkey's Bet on Syria: All in for HTS

Many Western and Arab countries send delegations to Damascus to meet the new leadership and test the waters. Many are adamant about maintaining sanctions on Syria until the government demonstrates the capacity to establish an inclusive government that protects the rights of all Syrians, with particular emphasis on the Christians and the Kurds.  

In the meantime, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) faces significant challenges in governing Syria's deeply fractured society. Several reports of arbitrary killings of Alawites and skirmishes between different sects show that the Syrian government is in the early phases of power consolidation. Despite the many uncertainties clouding Syria's future, the Turkish government is fully committing its support to the country’s new government.

Turkey’s Full Engagement in Syria

To bolster the new leadership during this precarious period, Turkey is prepared to offer comprehensive economic support. By 2022, nearly 25% of Syrians were living in extreme poverty—a condition that was almost nonexistent before the war. Additionally, two-thirds of the population (67%), or approximately 14.5 million people, live below the lower-middle-income poverty line. Without establishing an economically viable country, HTS may struggle to survive.

For Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, ensuring the survival of the Golani government in Syria is of utmost importance. In a recent cabinet meeting in Ankara, Erdoğan instructed all his ministers to take proactive measures to address Syria’s needs within their respective areas. These efforts include reopening migration offices in Damascus and Aleppo, expanding aid and housing projects, simplifying customs procedures for returning Syrians, repairing infrastructure, offering military training, enhancing counter-terrorism collaboration, and improving access to education and psychosocial support.  

Energy deserves special mention in Turkey’s efforts to support Syria. Plans are underway for coordinated maintenance on both sides of the border to ensure an uninterrupted energy supply. A delegation from the Turkish Ministry of Energy has already visited Damascus to discuss the maintenance and operational mechanisms of Syria's electricity sector. The Ministry’s initial focus is on restoring the Birecik-Halep Interconnection Line, which has the capacity to supply up to 300 megawatts of electricity—enough to power approximately 150,000 Syrian homes.

Turkey’s Military Role: Beyond Security Agreements

Pro-government media in Turkey reports that Ankara is poised to play a pivotal role in restructuring Syria's military forces by providing advisory and expert support. Turkish Defense Minister Yaşar Güler stated, “We currently have military training and cooperation agreements with many countries. We are ready to provide necessary support if the new administration in Syria requests it.” However, indications suggest that Turkey’s defense cooperation with Syria may extend beyond a simple security agreement.

Plans include unifying Syria's fragmented military under a single structure and establishing a Turkish military presence at five strategic locations. This would involve establishing a military base in Damascus, a naval base in Tartus, and conducting joint drills and operations in the Mediterranean.  

This military restructuring could spark a geopolitical rivalry between Turkey and Israel due to their conflicting visions for Syria’s future, as warned by political analyst Haşim Tekineş. Israel perceives a unified Syria led by an organization with questionable credentials as a significant threat to its national security. Israel’s extensive campaigns, which have systematically destroyed the Syrian military and established a buffer zone in southern Syria, stem from these concerns. Ironically, these actions—while addressing Israel’s short-term security needs—may compel Damascus to reconsider the presence of Russian military bases on Syrian territory as a counterweight and could further draw Turkey into deeper military involvement in Syria.

Turkey’s Push for Diplomatic Recognition of HTS

Although HTS has renounced its ties to terrorism and rebranded itself as a legitimate and reasonable governing force, its background in al-Qaida—a terrorist organization par excellence—continues to raise concerns. However, Arab countries are primarily concerned about the potential outbreak of a new 'Arab Spring.' They are seeking assurances from Damascus that it will not attempt to export its regime. To this end, Syria's Foreign Minister first visited Saudi Arabia, with planned visits to Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan to follow. 

Turkey supports these diplomatic moves to secure recognition for the new Syrian government. During the early days of the Aleppo offensive, Turkey’s diplomatic efforts were primarily directed at Russia and Iran to reconcile with the realities on the ground. Following the fall of Assad, Turkey’s intelligence chief, Ibrahim Kalın, became the first high-ranking foreign official to visit Damascus. Now, in the consolidation phase, Turkey is turning its attention to Saudi Arabia and other wary Arab capitals, urging regional leaders to reintegrate Syria into the Arab fold.

“Sun is rising again in Syria,” President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan proclaimed. From diplomatic initiatives to military restructuring and energy cooperation, Ankara is investing significant political, economic, and strategic capital to ensure the survival of the Golani administration. However, this assertive approach is not without risks. The security arrangements with Syria could complicate Turkey’s volatile relations with Israel and, by extension, its interactions with the United States. The integration of the Kurds into the new Syrian government may also have repercussions for Turkey's new Kurdish opening.