In 2023, Turkey completed the year without witnessing significant shifts in its domestic politics and foreign policy. The fusion of authoritarianism with crony capitalism and fluctuations in diplomatic relations persisted, reflecting a continuity with previous years. However, Turkey, under the leadership of President Erdogan, made attempts to address some of the shortcomings and turbulence in its policies following his electoral triumph in May 2023. Despite these efforts, the inherently authoritarian and corrupt nature of the regime impeded any genuine strides toward normalization.
Following the elections in May, a noteworthy development was Ankara's endeavor to improve ties with the West. Many observers viewed this as a rational choice for Turkey given its geopolitical rivalries with Russia and Iran. Moreover, the Turkish economy has needed to secure funds from Western countries. Erdogan's pledge to ratify Sweden's NATO membership and amicable discussions with President Biden at the NATO Summit in Vilnius hinted at a belated correction in Turkey's strategic alignment. However, this optimistic phase was short-lived. The Turkish Parliament delayed the approval of Sweden's NATO membership, citing concerns about Sweden's actions against groups designated as terrorist organizations by Turkey. Additionally, the United States' refusal to sell a new batch of F-16s to Turkey led to Erdogan contemplating replacing them with Eurofighters. Yet, his visit to Berlin did not yield a warm reception, and Turkey's diplomatic overtures did not bring substantial changes in relations with Washington or Brussels.
Turkey's relations with Russia also faced challenges, with President Putin not accepting Erdogan's invitation to visit Ankara. Erdogan's visit to Sochi failed to secure a new grain deal, further complicating Turkey's position in both Ukraine and the West. Despite reaping economic benefits from its dual engagement with Russia and Ukraine, this delicate balancing act did not translate into significant political gains.
On a positive note, Turkey's efforts to normalize relations with regional countries have shown better results. Although the normalization with Egypt progressed more slowly than with Gulf countries, intensified contacts and presidential meetings between the two nations took place. However, attempts to normalize relations with Syria and Israel faced obstacles, particularly in the case of Syria, where President Assad's precondition of Turkish military withdrawal from Syrian territories remained unacceptable to Ankara.
Hamas’s attack on October 7 significantly impacted Turkey-Israel relations. Prior to the attack, President Erdogan's meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu in New York seemed to set the stage for improved relations. However, Erdogan's subsequent harsh criticisms of Israel seem to have halted diplomatic reconciliation efforts.
President Erdogan's major corrective measures focused on the Turkish economy. After the May elections, Mehmet Simsek was reinstated as the Minister of Economy with full authority to address economic challenges. The Central Bank raised interest rates by 31.5% since June to 40%, successfully controlling monthly inflation and slowing the devaluation of the Turkish lira against the US dollar. Despite these accomplishments, international investors remain skeptical about the longevity of the new economic team and their policies, given Erdogan's history of changing economic strategies.
Another critical move was Erdogan's appointment to the Interior Ministry, initiating a campaign against some crime syndicates. The new Interior Minister, Ai Yerlikaya, sought to reverse the open-door policy for the criminal world implemented by the previous minister. However, some view this campaign as a continuation of Erdogan's strategy to balance factions within the bureaucracy rather than a genuine effort to establish the rule of law and accountability.
Erdogan's relentless pursuit of power, the establishment of a personal authoritarian regime, and adherence to populist policies have come at a considerable cost to Turkey's democracy, foreign policy, and economy. While he consolidated his rule with the latest electoral victory, Erdogan faces the challenging task of normalizing the country, stabilizing the economy, and curbing excesses. The authoritarian and corrupt characteristics of his regime, however, pose significant obstacles to a comprehensive recovery. Erdogan's policies have weakened institutions, politicized the courts, triggered brain drain, increased corruption, and eroded confidence in the Turkish state. Consequently, international counterparts, investors, and observers harbor doubts about the sustainability and sincerity of Erdogan's normalization initiatives.
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