ANALYSIS
"Erdogan's Irredentism Just Can't Keep Up" by Nick Danforth, Foreign Policy
Erdogan hoped that as American power waned, he would have more room to maneuver, both at home and abroad, while U.S. allies like Greece and Israel grew more pliant without their patron. Instead, the United States' sudden shift under Trump risks simultaneously empowering both Russian and Israeli revisionism, leaving the region a far more dangerous place for Turkey.
There was always something implausible about the relentlessly positive win-win framing of these geopolitical visions. Certainly, people on the receiving end of them weren't always convinced. But at best, they made it possible for other countries to buy into American—and for a brief period, Turkish—power as a mutually beneficial project. Now, some vestigial rhetoric aside, this win-win framing is gone. At best, countries can appeal to others as the lesser evil—a temporary partner in the face of a greater threat.
"Russia Might Be Preparing to Buy Back Turkey's S-400 Anti-Air Systems" by Peter Suciu, National Interest
The Kremlin's forces have seen several S-400s destroyed in the ongoing war in Ukraine, and Russia must replenish its own inventory while ensuring its exports aren't delayed further. Moscow has already been forced to postpone the transfer of an S-400 battery to India, and current plans call for the systems to arrive no earlier than late 2026 or early 2027.
According to Defense Mirror, the Russian military currently has no spare S-400s. The S-400s, which have essentially remained untouched since 2017, could allow Russia to quickly replace missile batteries destroyed in Ukraine—and restore Turkey to the F-35 fighter program.
POLITICS
Ozgur Ozel Re-Elected CHP Chairman at 22nd Extraordinary Congress
At the 22nd Extraordinary Congress of the Republican People's Party (CHP) in Ankara, Ozgur Ozel was re-elected chairman for the third time in two years.
Certain delegates, including 196 Istanbul Supreme Board members suspended by court order, non-parliamentary members who became "natural delegates" after the 38th Ordinary Congress, and those under investigation, were barred from voting.
The key development was not Ozel's re-election but the move to dismiss the court case scheduled for October 24, leaving the lawsuit without a subject. At the Congress, Ozel and his board were ousted by a vote of no confidence before being re-elected in a subsequent contest, effectively nullifying the previous Congress results.
Ozel was the sole candidate at the latest congress, where 917 of 1,127 registered delegates voted. He received all 835 valid votes and secured another term as CHP leader.
Ankara Court Adjourns Key Hearing in CHP Vote-Buying Case
An Ankara court on September 15 adjourned a crucial hearing into alleged vote-buying that could affect the leadership of Turkey's main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP).
The court postponed the case until October 24 and ordered the Çankaya District Election Board to send the delegate list and minutes of the CHP extraordinary congress on September 21, after the congress takes place.
Turkish Appeals Court Upholds Prison Term and Political Ban for Imamoglu
A Turkish appeals court on September 19 upheld the prison sentence and political ban for jailed Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. Imamoglu was sentenced in late 2022 to two years and seven months in prison and barred from politics for four years for allegedly insulting members of Turkey's Supreme Election Board (YSK).
The case stems from Imamoglu's public remarks after the annulment of the 2019 Istanbul mayoral election, which he had initially won against the ruling party's candidate. He was accused of calling those who cancelled the vote "fools," though he told the court his comments were aimed at then–Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu, not YSK officials.
If the Supreme Court of Appeals also upholds the verdict, Imamoglu could be sidelined from politics ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
Istanbul District Mayor Hasan Mutlu Arrested in Corruption Probe
Hasan Mutlu, the Republican People's Party (CHP) mayor of Istanbul's Bayrampasa district, was arrested, along with 25 others, in a corruption investigation targeting the municipality. A court ordered 26 suspects, including Mutlu, held in pretrial detention, while 19 others were released under judicial supervision.
"There is neither concrete evidence nor a valid legal reason," Mutlu said in a statement on X. "Our only crime is refusing to bow to pressure and threats and not abandoning our principles."
Turkey's Interior Ministry suspended Mutlu from office on September 17 following his arrest.
Following the removal of Bayrampasa Mayor Hasan Mutlu, the deputy mayoral election was held on September 21. After four rounds of voting ended in a tie, the winner was decided by lottery.
The draw resulted in the election of Ibrahim Kahraman from the Republican People's Party (CHP) as Bayrampasa's new deputy mayor.
ECONOMY
Turkey's CDS Slumps to 5.5-Year Low
Turkey's five-year credit default swap (CDS), a key market "risk barometer," fell to 240 basis points, marking its lowest level in 5.5 years. Investors increasingly view CDS as a more dynamic measure of country risk than traditional credit ratings.
The decline comes as expectations for a rise in the USD/TRY exchange rate eased after the Central Bank's total reserves surpassed $180 billion, boosting capital inflows. Strong tourism revenues and continued capital inflows also improved the current account balance, further supporting the drop in CDS.
In 2023, Turkey's CDS spiked above 700 basis points following the first round of general elections before gradually declining. It surged again after operations targeting the Istanbul Municipality on March 19, hovering above 300 basis points.
Iraq Moves Closer to Deal on Restarting Kurdish Oil Exports Through Turkey
Iraq has given preliminary approval to resume pipeline oil exports from its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region through Turkey, sources familiar with the talks told Reuters. The pipeline has been closed since March 2023 after an arbitration court ordered Turkey to pay $1.5 billion in damages for unauthorized exports between 2014 and 2018.
According to two sources, Iraq's cabinet has approved a draft plan, and international oil companies operating in Kurdistan have also tentatively agreed. "Discussions have intensified and we're closer to a tripartite agreement than we've ever been, as all sides are showing flexibility," an executive from one of the companies said.
Under the proposal, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) would supply at least 230,000 barrels per day (bpd) to Iraq's state oil marketer, SOMO, while retaining an additional 50,000 bpd for local use.
An independent trader would manage sales from the Turkish port of Ceyhan using SOMO's official prices. For each barrel sold, $16 would be placed in an escrow account and distributed proportionally to producers, while the remaining revenue would go to SOMO.
Alamos Gold Sells Turkish Assets to Nurol Holding for $470 Million
Canadian mining company Alamos Gold is exiting Turkey, selling all its assets to Turkish conglomerate Nurol Holding's Tümad Madencilik for $470 million, the daily Sozcu reported on September 15.
The assets include the controversial Kirazlı, Ağı Dağı, and Çamyurt gold projects in the Kazdağları region, a mountain range located in northwestern Turkey, spanning the provinces of Çanakkale and Balıkesir. Alamos said it will use the proceeds to fund higher-return projects in North America and reduce debt.
The deal involves three staged payments: $160 million at closing, another $160 million after one year, and $150 million in the second year. The transaction is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Alamos had previously launched international arbitration proceedings against Turkey through its Dutch subsidiaries after its license was not renewed. As part of the sale, those proceedings will be suspended and ultimately terminated once contractual conditions are fulfilled, the company said.
Turkey to Build 20-Block Greenhouse in Syria to Boost Agricultural Cooperation
Minister of Agriculture and Forestry Ibrahim Yumakli, during his visit to Damascus, announced plans to build a greenhouse complex of 20 blocks on a 50,000-square-meter site in Syria.
Yumakli recalled that the Syrian Minister of Agriculture visited Turkey in April, leading to the creation of a joint committee to address agricultural developments. Later, this committee prepared a roadmap with a clear timetable for cooperation, he said.
Yumakli added that Turkey will continue supporting efforts to revive agricultural production in Syria, highlighting the significant potential for expanding trade between the two countries.
Mubadala Considers Exiting All Getir Investments in Turkey
Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala, the top shareholder in Turkish delivery company Getir, is exploring a complete exit from its Getir investments in Turkey, including financing arm Getir Finans and car rental unit Getir Arac, Reuters reported, citing two sources familiar with the matter.
Talks to sell Mubadala's stake in Getir Arac are at an advanced stage with Turkish car rental company Tiktak, the sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
Discussions on the sale of Getir's core delivery business are also underway with more than one potential buyer. However, it remains unclear whether the talks will lead to finalized deals.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Report: Turkey Ranks Third Among EU Candidates in Press Freedom Violations
Turkey ranked third among European Union candidate countries for press freedom violations in the first half of 2025, according to a new report by the Media Freedom Rapid Response (MFRR). The report documented 64 incidents that affected at least 157 journalists and media outlets.
Courts and judicial authorities accounted for nearly half of the violations (48.4 percent), followed by police and state security forces (32.8 percent). More than half of the cases (59.4 percent) involved arrest, detention, or imprisonment. During the monitoring period, courts convicted at least 15 journalists, issuing prison terms and suspended sentences.
The report also documented 19 violations targeting journalists covering the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and subsequent protests, including arrests, detentions, and police violence. Additionally, eight cases of physical assaults against 22 media workers were reported, all attributed to the police.
Turkey Detains 31 Over Alleged Military Links to Gulen Movement
Turkish authorities detained 31 people with suspected ties to the Gulen movement in two separate operations last week, targeting what prosecutors described as the group's "secret structure" within the military.
On September 15, prosecutors in the central province of Konya launched an investigation into the network's alleged infiltration of the Turkish Armed Forces. Police conducted simultaneous raids across 17 provinces, including Ankara, Istanbul, and Antalya, detaining 21 of 25 suspects named in detention warrants.
Two days later, Ankara prosecutors ordered the detention of 10 current or former navy officers and noncommissioned officers accused of links to the movement's network inside the Naval Forces Command. Authorities said one suspect was an active-duty officer, while the other nine had already been dismissed from the military. All 10 were taken into custody.
Separately, authorities also targeted what they described as the movement's structure within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Detention orders were issued for 15 people, including eight still on active duty.
On September 16, Turkish police carried out operations across four provinces, detaining suspects under warrants issued by the Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor's Office.
Report: Child Worker Deaths Rise to 72 During School Year
At least 72 children died while working in Turkey between September 2024 and August 2025, the Health and Safety Labour Watch (ISIG) reported, marking a roughly 10 percent increase from the previous school year.
The watchdog said most of the deaths occurred in cities. By sector, 20 children died in agriculture, 19 in industry, 17 in construction, and 16 in services.
ISIG found that 11 of the victims were younger than 14, below Turkey's legal working age, while 34 were between 15 and 17. Many of them were enrolled in state-run vocational programs or school internships.
The group partly blamed the trend on the expansion of Vocational Education Centers (MESEM), a government-backed apprenticeship track that places students in workplaces four days a week. ISIG estimates that about 505,000 students are currently enrolled in MESEM, which it says "legitimizes cheap labour."
Retired Turkish Colonel Jailed for Posts Criticizing MHP Leader Bahceli
A retired Turkish colonel has been arrested over social media posts criticizing Devlet Bahceli, the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader.
Cetin Orkun Ozeller, who served 28 years in the Turkish Armed Forces and took part in military operations, was detained on September 17 as part of an investigation by the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office. He later testified at the Ordu Courthouse in northern Turkey.
Ozeller had recently criticized Bahceli over ongoing peace efforts with the PKK that began last year following a call from the MHP leader. He admitted writing the posts but said they were political opinions, not a crime. After questioning, a court ordered Ozeller jailed pending trial on charges of inciting hatred and hostility.
FOREIGN POLICY
Trump to Host Erdogan at White House for Key Fighter Jet and Trade Talks
US President Donald Trump announced on September 19 that he would welcome Turkish President Erdogan to the White House next week, aiming to resolve a long-running dispute over fighter jets. This will be Erdogan's first White House visit since 2019, during Trump's first term.
Trump confirmed that Erdogan's visit is set for September 25, following their participation in the UN General Assembly in New York. "We are working on many trade and military deals with the President, including the large-scale purchase of Boeing aircraft, a major F-16 deal, and a continuation of the F-35 talks, which we expect to conclude positively," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
Bloomberg reported that Boeing Co. and Lockheed Martin Corp. could secure orders from Turkey as early as next week for up to 250 commercial planes.
Turkish officials familiar with the matter said Erdogan aims to strike agreements worth tens of billions of US dollars in defense and energy. Turkey plans to buy 40 F-35 jets, 40 F-16 Vipers, and a range of munitions, including bombs and missiles. Negotiations over the final price for the F-16s are still underway, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
CHP Leader Claims Trump Jr. Met Erdogan in Istanbul
CHP leader Ozgur Ozel said that Donald Trump Jr., the eldest son of US President Donald Trump, met with President Erdogan at the Dolmabahce working office in Istanbul on September 14.
Ozel claimed a Republican People's Party (CHP) rally in Istanbul's Bahcelievler district on September 17, noting that Trump Jr. appeared in the presidential log as a businessman and that business matters were reportedly discussed.
"While Palestine is bleeding, they are doing business with Trump's son through lobbying companies," Ozel said. He added, "On the Palestinian issue, Erdogan pretends to criticize Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but does not utter a word against the real patron of the matter, Trump."
Middle East Eye also reported that Trump Jr. met with Erdogan as Ankara sought a meeting between Erdogan and Donald Trump. A Turkish source close to Erdogan confirmed the meeting took place but described it as a "courtesy visit," saying there were no formal discussions on Gaza or any other specific topics, rejecting Ozel's claims.
MHP Leader Bahceli Calls for Turkey-Russia-China Alliance Against US and Israel
Devlet Bahceli, leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a key ally of Turkish President Erdogan, has called for an alliance between Turkey, Russia, and China to counter what he described as a "coalition of evil" led by the United States and Israel. Bahceli said such a partnership would be the most suitable option for the region, according to a written statement released on September 18.
His remarks came in response to recent comments by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about Jerusalem. During a high-profile ceremony in Jerusalem's City of David, Netanyahu declared, "This is our city, Mr. Erdogan," and vowed the city would never be divided. He also warned that if "Jerusalem falls," Ankara would "lose" and Istanbul would "burn."
Turkey Welcomes New Roadmap for Syria's Sweida After Sectarian Clashes
Turkey's foreign ministry announced on September 16 that it welcomes a new roadmap for Sweida, a southern Syrian province home to many members of the Druze community, following sectarian fighting in July.
Syrian officials announced the plan in Damascus with participation from Jordan and the United States. The roadmap includes steps to maintain aid delivery, restore electricity and water, deploy interior ministry police on key roads, pursue those who incited violence, account for missing persons, and enable the return of displaced residents.
The ministry said it will continue to support efforts that promote peace, security, and stability across Syria.
Turkey and Egypt to Hold First Joint Naval Exercises in 13 Years
Turkey and Egypt will conduct joint naval exercises in the eastern Mediterranean for the first time in 13 years, the Turkish Defense Ministry announced on September 18, as part of efforts to strengthen bilateral ties.
The "Friendship Sea" drills are scheduled for September 22–26. A high-level observer day is planned for September 25, when commanders from both Turkey and Egypt's naval forces are expected to attend.
Greece Approves Purchase of Fourth French-Built Belharra Frigate
Greece's security council, KYSEA, approved on September 17 the purchase of a fourth Belharra frigate from France to modernize its armed forces and keep pace with rival Turkey, two government sources told Reuters.
"KYSEA approved the procurement of a fourth Belharra frigate from France," a senior government official said, without providing details on the cost. A second official confirmed the decision.
Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias said after a presentation to KYSEA that the new frigate would be equipped with ballistic missiles. The deal is expected to be approved by a parliamentary committee in the coming days.
Greece Conducts Aegean Military Drill Following Turkish Survey Announcement
Greece launched a medium-scale military exercise across the Aegean Sea early on September 17, deploying air, naval, and ground forces, in response to Turkey's announcement of potential surveys in the region, Greek Kathimerini reported.
The exercise followed Turkey's Navtex 0863/25 issued from Izmir, reserving areas for research by the vessel Piri Reis. Although the surveys were expected to begin the same day, Greek officials reported that the ship remained anchored in Izmir marina, which Athens interpreted as a possible sign of hesitation in Ankara.
Turkey Monitors Israeli Air Defense Deliveries to Cyprus
The Turkish Defense Ministry said on September 18 that it is monitoring the arrival of Israeli-made air defense systems in the Republic of Cyprus and has taken steps to safeguard the Turkish Cypriot north. The ministry spokesperson said, "Every attempt to undermine the balance on the island is being closely followed and measures are being taken for the peace and security of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus." The Republic of Cyprus has begun receiving Barak MX surface-to-air missile batteries from Israel.
Armenia to Remove Mount Ararat from Passport Stamps Amid Controversy
Armenia will remove Mount Ararat from passport stamps at its border crossings, according to a government decree, in a move officials say aims to avoid sending "dangerous messages" to neighbours. Critics, however, denounce the decision as a concession to Ankara, the Armenian Asbarez reported.
Mount Ararat, known in Turkey as Mount Agri, lies across the border but has long held symbolic importance in Armenian identity.
The order, signed by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on September 11, takes effect on November 1 and introduces redesigned stamps without the mountain's silhouette.
Pashinyan defended the change at a security conference in Yerevan, arguing that national symbols should not provoke conflict. Ruling party secretary Artur Hovhannisyan added that passport stamps should feature only state emblems and avoid sending "dangerous messages."
Opposition leader Seyran Ohanyan criticized the move, saying the government was acting "under coercion" to appease Ankara.
Groundbreaking Ceremony Held for New Ministry of Foreign Affairs Campus in Ankara
The Housing Development Administration (TOKI) commenced construction of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Campus with a groundbreaking ceremony on September 17, attended by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Speaking at the event in Baglica, President Erdogan said the current ministry building no longer meets the growing vision, needs, and staffing requirements of recent years.
The new campus will be built on a 548,000-square-meter plot, offering 334,500 square meters of indoor space, including 203,000 square meters above ground and 131,500 square meters underground. Designed to be user-friendly, ecological, and visually appealing, the campus aims to add significant value to Ankara, Erdogan said.
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