ANALYSIS
"The Turkish House: Buildings Don’t Make Diplomacy" by Hasim Tekines, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey aimed to use Turkevi as a key player in expanding its diplomatic reach. To that end, Ankara even bribed New York mayor Eric Adams risking already fragile Turkish-American relations. However, a look at Erdogan's meetings with world leaders during the UN General Assembly from 2014 to 2024 shows little change in Turkey's diplomatic interactions.
These numbers indicate that, despite the grand opening of Turkevi, Erdogan's diplomacy traffic has not significantly changed. The countries he meets with seem to be the same, with a mix of non-Western states and occasional Western leaders. In the same vein, Erdogan has struggled to meet with Western leaders, particularly U.S. presidents and senators.
Having a modern facility like Turkevi can give an impression of strength, but it is essential to understand that buildings alone do not drive successful diplomacy. Over the past decade, Turkey has made significant mistakes that have damaged its global standing.
If Turkey genuinely wants to strengthen its diplomatic capacity, it should prioritize establishing trust and collaboration, rather than buildings, will be crucial in restoring Turkey's diplomatic influence.
"Trump or Harris? Turkey's government can't decide which would be best", by Ragip Soylu, Middle East Eye
There are four days left until the US presidential election and the Turkish leadership in Ankara is split over which candidate they favour.
Turkish officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to Middle East Eye, believe either of the two outcomes would have a consequential impact on Turkey's foreign policy, as well as regional and global dynamics. Many observers in Turkey believe President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is awaiting the election results in the United States before making his own policy decisions, even over his cabinet staffing.
Yet, officials have been particularly and unusually tight-lipped about their preferred candidate in this campaign period. Turkey's non-engagement with the candidates stems from two things, sources in Ankara say.
First, Ankara is deeply confused about the possible ramifications - advantages and disadvantages - of a Trump or Harris presidency for Turkey's relationship with the US.
The second reason Ankara has kept a studious silence is the election has been incredibly close. For weeks, the polls have been very tight and there is no indication that one candidate is more likely to emerge victorious.
Ankara’s previous attempts to engage with Trump officials before the 2016 elections were also educational. Turkey’s bid to lobby Trump’s then-national security advisor Michael Flynn massively backfired when investigations into his activity treated Turkish efforts on par with Russian influence campaigns.
This time, the Turkish government doesn’t seek any adventures and maintains a by-the-book approach to the elections.
"Turkey could soon strike a historic peace deal with the Kurds", The Economist
On October 22nd, to the astonishment of most Turks, it was the same Mr Bahceli who raised hopes of a settlement with the PKK, by calling on the group’s imprisoned leader, Abdullah Ocalan, to address parliament and renounce violence.
Turkey now has a much stronger hand. The PKK has been wiped out as a fighting force in the south-east. Mass arrests have pushed Turkey’s main Kurdish party, the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM), to the fringes of politics.
That has many watchers wondering why Turkey’s government chose this moment to rekindle the peace process. The probable explanation has to do with the damage Iran and its proxies have suffered at Israel’s hands in the past year. Iran’s waning influence in Syria and Iraq risks emboldening the region’s Kurds to pursue more autonomy, says Mesut Yegen, a Turkish academic. “That’s the scenario Turkey wants to prevent.”
Mr Bahceli’s sudden conversion, from being one of the biggest obstacles to talks with the PKK to a go-between, is equally noteworthy. The MHP’s leader is known to have many allies in Turkey’s vast bureaucracy, and especially the security forces. “Bahceli’s role suggests this is a serious Turkish state project,” says Cengiz Candar, a DEM lawmaker, “and that we are either on the eve of very important developments, or already in the implementation phase.”
POLITICS
CHP Mayor in Istanbul Arrested Amid Allegations of PKK Ties
A mayor from Turkey's main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) was arrested on October 30 after prosecutors accused him of being affiliated with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office claimed that Ozer had been in contact with PKK members for over a decade.
Ahmet Ozer, the mayor of Istanbul's Esenyurt district, denies the terrorism-related charges. The demonstrators gathered in front of the city’s main courthouse late at night to denounce Ozer’s arrest.
Ozer was also a sociology professor and former adviser to Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. İstanbul Deputy Governor Can Aksoy has been appointed trustee to replace Ozer.
The CHP stated it would defend Ozer against baseless allegations, claiming this is part of the government's strategy to target opposition members through the legal system. The party encouraged citizens to protest in Esenyurt.
Mayor Imamoglu criticized the timing of the arrest, especially in light of a recent peace proposal from Devlet Bahceli, an ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. "We see political interference in the judiciary. We know there's a politically staged plot," Imamoglu stated.
Aysegul Dogan, spokesperson for the pro-Kurdish DEM Party, condemned Ozer's arrest, stating he was elected with their support and that it undermines the "democratic opposition."
Former CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu said the only way to challenge the government is through collective action, especially after a trustee was appointed to Esenyurt Municipality. Kılıçdaroğlu emphasized, "There is no negotiation, there is a struggle."
A rally was held in Esenyurt Square on October 31, organized by members of the DEM Party and CHP, with representatives from the Left Party, Future Party, and DEVA Party in attendance. During the rally, DEM Party Co-Chair Tulay Hatimogulları, Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, and CHP Chairman Ozel all labelled Ozer's arrest as a political coup.
Erdogan Backs Ally’s Appeal to Kurds, Calling It a “Historic Opportunity”
On October 30, President Erdogan expressed full support for a call by his nationalist ally, urging Turkey's Kurdish population to unite in building a stronger nation. Speaking to lawmakers from his Justice and Development Party (AK Party) on October 30, Erdogan praised Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahceli’s recent outreach, describing it as a "window of opportunity" for unity.
"My dear Kurdish brothers, we ask you to take hold of [Bahceli’s] sincerely extended hand," Erdogan said, inviting them to join in his vision for the “century of Turkey.” He also expressed hope that the Kurdish conflict could be removed entirely from the national agenda, making it the “crowning achievement” of his political journey.
Erdogan clarified that this appeal was directed at the Kurdish people in Turkey, not at "terror groups" operating in Iraq and Syria.
Port Security Fires Warning Shots Amid Protest Against Israeli Shipping in Istanbul
Security guards at Istanbul's Ambarli Port fired warning shots into the air on October 31 to disperse a pro-Palestinian protest against the docking of vessels from Israeli shipping company ZIM.
Demonstrators chanted, “No Zionism in our ports,” calling for an end to Israeli presence at Turkish ports. Tensions rose as security guards attempted to break up the gathering. Police intervened to prevent the crowd from approaching the ZIM containers and secured the area.
There have been several reports that trade with Israel, under the guise of trade with Palestine, has skyrocketed in recent months.
Erdogan Files Slander Lawsuits Against Opposition Leader and Istanbul Mayor
President Erdogan filed lawsuits on November 1 against Özgür Ozel, head of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, both top officials of the main opposition party, accusing them of slander.
Erdogan's lawsuit against Ozel cites "publicly insulting the president" and "damaging the honour of the presidency," while the suit against Imamoglu claims he made "unfounded accusations intended to humiliate the president publicly." Each lawsuit seeks one million Turkish lira (approximately $30,000) in damages.
In response, Ozel stated, "Erdogan acts as if he’s been insulted without any insult, aiming to cast himself as the victim. When in power, he imposes ‘enemy law,’ but when he feels vulnerable, he calls for unity. There is no sincerity here,” he told reporters.
Erdogan Drops Lawsuits Against Former Good Party Leader Aksener
In a rare move, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has withdrawn all lawsuits and criminal complaints against Meral Aksener, former leader of the nationalist Good Party.
Hüseyin Aydin, Erdogan’s lawyer, announced that three investigations into Aksener, initiated based on accusations of insulting the president, have been closed. Additionally, four lawsuits seeking non-pecuniary damages from Aksener have also been dropped.
While no reason was given for Erdogan’s decision, the gesture follows Aksener’s visit to Erdogan at the presidential palace in June.
Senior PKK Leader Ties Peace Talks to Ocalan's Freedom
Duran Kalkan, a senior PKK leader, stated that any future peace talks to resolve Turkey's long-standing conflict with the outlawed PKK would depend on the “physical freedom” of Abdullah Ocalan, the PKK’s imprisoned leader.
Kalkan expressed doubts about MHP leader Bahceli’s recent call for peace, noting it has been met with scepticism. He emphasized that Ocalan should be able to interact directly with various societal groups to effectively address the decades-long conflict.
PKK Leader Ocalan Faces New Disciplinary Punishment
Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the outlawed PKK, has received a new disciplinary punishment that prevents his family from visiting him.
Ocalan's lawyers applied to the Bursa Execution Court to allow his family to visit Ocalan. However, on October 16, 2024, the court announced that Ocalan was given a new three-month disciplinary punishment. The court did not disclose the reasons for this punishment. Ocalan's lawyers are expected to appeal the decision.
Kayseri MP Dursun Atas Joins AKP
Kayseri MP Dursun Atas officially joined the AK Party. President Erdogan pinned Atas's badge on him after he attended the AK Party Group Meeting. Atas had resigned from the Good Party in September.
ECONOMY
Turkey Plans to Develop Its Own "Steel Dome" Defense System
On October 29, President Tayyip Erdogan revealed Turkey’s plans to develop its own multi-layered air defense system, dubbed the "Steel Dome".
Speaking at a ceremony in Ankara, Erdogan stated, "If Israel has an 'Iron Dome,' we will have a 'Steel Dome.' We won’t just look and wonder why we don’t have this."
He added that Turkey also aims to expand its long-range missile capabilities and will "not rest" until achieving full independence in the defense industry, but he did not specify a timeline for the new developments.
Climate Investment Funds to Support $1 Billion Plan for Turkey’s Renewable Energy Grid
The Climate Investment Funds (CIF) announced on October 31 that it will support a $1 billion initiative to modernize Turkey’s electricity grid to accommodate more renewable energy sources.
CIF's board approved an initial $70 million investment through its Renewable Energy Integration (REI) platform, intending to attract an additional $790 million to enhance transmission infrastructure and $330 million for advanced technology upgrades.
S&P Global Upgrades Turkey’s Credit Rating for Second Time This Year
S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Turkey’s credit rating for the second time in 2024, citing improvements in reserve accumulation and disinflation. On November 1, S&P Global raised Turkey’s long-term sovereign rating by one notch to BB- and changed the outlook to stable. However, the country’s rating remains three levels below investment grade.
The ratings agency noted that Turkey’s Central Bank has maintained a tight monetary policy, which has helped stabilize the lira, reduce inflation, rebuild reserves, and de-dollarize the financial system.
Turkey Increases Withholding Tax Rates on Lira Deposits
A presidential decree signed by President Tayyip Erdogan and published in the Official Gazette on November 1 has raised withholding tax rates on Turkish lira deposits and funds.
Under the new regulation, the withholding tax for six-month term deposits has increased from 7.5 percent to 10 percent. The tax rate has risen from 5 percent to 7.5 percent for one-year term deposits. The withholding tax on deposits with terms longer than one year has also been raised from 2.5 percent to 5 percent.
Turkey Records $5.75 Billion Trade Deficit in October
Turkey recorded a trade deficit of $5.75 billion in October, indicating that the economy’s rebalancing is on track. The decline in imports was the slowest in the past six months, reflecting the relative strength of the Turkish lira.
According to data released by the Trade Ministry on October 2, exports rose 3.6% from a year earlier to $23.6 billion, while imports fell by 0.2% to $29.4 billion, a 13% decrease in the foreign trade deficit compared to the same month last year.
The trade shortfall totalled $65.6 billion for the first ten months of the year, down more than 30% from the same period in 2023. Exports during this time were $216.4 billion, reflecting a 3.2% increase, while imports fell by 7.2% in the first ten months of 2024, totalling $282 billion.
Germany was Turkey’s largest export destination in October, with $1.81 billion in exports, while China remained the top exporter to Turkey at $4.24 billion, followed by Russia at $3.06 billion.
HUMAN RIGHTS
EU Report Raises “Serious Concerns” Over Turkey’s Democratic Standards and Human Rights
The European Commission’s annual report on Turkey, released on October 30, highlighted “serious concerns” about the continued decline in democratic standards, rule of law, and respect for fundamental rights in Turkey.
The report criticized Turkey’s presidential system, stating it has weakened parliamentary power, limited legislative oversight, and reduced opposition influence. With extensive executive powers centralized under President Erdogan, the report noted that parliament’s ability to hold the government accountable has diminished, especially through the frequent use of presidential decrees.
Judicial independence also remains a vital issue. The EU cited executive interference in the judiciary’s operations and Turkey’s failure to enforce decisions from both its Constitutional Court and the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR). The report criticized Turkey’s continued detention of prominent figures such as Osman Kavala and Kurdish leader Selahattin Demirtas, despite ECtHR orders for their release.
The report further pointed to Turkey’s broad use of anti-terrorism laws, which it said has led to the targeting of journalists, activists, and political opponents, severely limiting civil liberties. Civil society organizations, especially those advocating for minority and women’s rights, have faced strict scrutiny, with systematic audits and investigations stifling their work.
Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a written statement rejecting the EU’s assessments in the 2024 report, particularly regarding political and internal matters. “A fresh perspective on Turkey-EU relations is needed, especially given current regional and global challenges,” the statement said, adding that progress in Turkey’s EU membership process will require the EU to take a constructive, strategic approach with concrete steps.
Turkey Ranks 117th in 2024 Rule of Law Index
The World Justice Project released its 2024 Rule of Law Index report last week, revealing a decline in the rule of law in most countries for the seventh consecutive year. Turkey ranks 117th out of 142 countries in this report.
According to the index, Venezuela is at the bottom of the list, followed by Afghanistan and Cambodia, which also rank among the bottom three.
In the category of ‘Restrictions on Government Powers,’ Turkey ranks 135th out of 142 countries. Additionally, Turkey is positioned 133rd in terms of fundamental human rights, indicating that it is among the 10 countries where human rights are significantly disregarded.
"Turkey Plans New Foreign Agent Law in Crackdown on Criticism" by Beril Akman and Firat Kozok, Bloomberg
Turkey is set to introduce a new law against foreign influence over issues that could harm the national interest, raising concern among civil society and media groups that it’ll be used to crush dissent. The punishment could be as many as seven years in prison, according to a draft bill seen by Bloomberg.
Judicial experts and journalists expressed concern about the ambiguity and broad wording of the law. Turkey’s political interests are subject to change and authorities could use that vagueness to crack down on any criticism against the government, they say.
Dozens of media groups have published statements opposing the foreign-influence law and calling for its withdrawal.
“We see the bill as an alarming threat to freedom of expression and civil society,” said Mustafa Kuleli, vice president of the European Federation of Journalists, or EFJ. “The vaguely worded bill could turn everyday journalistic and civil advocacy activities into punishable crimes.”
Turkey's Prison Population Surges by Over 100,000
Data from the Turkish Presidency reveals that the number of detainees and convicts in Turkey has increased by over 100,000 since October last year.
As of October 8, the total number of individuals held in prisons reached 364,139, exceeding the prison capacity of 297,121 by approximately 70,000. Last October, the total number of detainees and convicts was 263,815.
Turkey currently has the highest prison population rate among Council of Europe countries, with 408 prisoners and convicts for every 100,000 people.
Turkey Denies Release to Over 8,500 Inmates Since 2021
Turkey’s Ministry of Justice announced that prison administrations and oversight boards have denied the release of 8,521 inmates since 2021. This information was shared in response to questions from lawmakers of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) during a Human Rights Investigation Commission meeting.
Nuray Cevirmen, spokesperson for the Human Rights Association’s (IHD) Prison Commission, stated, “In many cases, political prisoners face continued detention without clear reasons, making the boards appear as tools of oppression.”
88-Year-Old Inmate Dies in Prison Despite Health Problems
Adem Cirit, an 88-year-old inmate convicted of alleged ties to the faith-based Gulen movement, has died in a Turkish prison despite multiple appeals for his release due to deteriorating health.
Cirit reportedly suffered from various age-related conditions, including cognitive impairment, incontinence, and joint weakness, limiting his mobility. Although two hospital reports recommended delaying his sentence, the Council of Forensic Medicine (ATK) deemed him fit to stay in prison.
Police Detain 27 Linked to Gulen Movement Across Turkey
In the past two days, police have detained 27 people across six provinces in Turkey for alleged connections to the Gülen movement.
In Istanbul, authorities apprehended 11 out of 12 individuals who had outstanding detention warrants while continuing to search for the remaining suspect. In Bursa, all 8 wanted individuals were taken into custody.
In Izmir and Sanliurfa, police detained 8 people for allegedly commemorating the recent death of Fethullah Gulen, the former spiritual leader of the movement.
FOREIGN POLICY
Turkey Leads Call for UN to Halt Arms Transfers to Israel
Turkey, along with 52 countries and two organizations - the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation - urged the UN Security Council to take action to halt arms and ammunition transfers to Israel.
Acting on Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s suggestion, Turkey initiated a joint letter calling on the international community to cease arms supplies to Israel. The letter, sent to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on November 1, requested the UN to take immediate measures to prevent further transfers of arms and ammunition.
Erdogan: Turkey's BRICS Engagement Not Replaces Existing Alliances
Following the October 28 cabinet meeting, President Erdogan clarified that Turkey’s expanding ties with BRICS do not serve as an alternative to its current agreements and partnerships. “We pursue Turkey’s interests and build cooperation based on what those interests require,” Erdogan said.
SDF Leader Calls for International Mediation Amid Rising Turkish Strikes
Mazloum Abdi, commander of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), called on international mediators to keep advocating for diplomatic solutions to Syria's complex conflicts, including intensified Turkish strikes on Kurdish-held areas. Speaking to the Associated Press on October 28, Abdi said the recent attack in Ankara served as an excuse for a pre-planned Turkish offensive. He claimed the strikes have severely impacted civilians by damaging essential infrastructure like oil facilities, bakeries, and power stations.
Despite ongoing strikes, Abdi stated the SDF remains “open to dialogue with all parties, including Turkey.” He also voiced support for potential peace talks between Turkish authorities and the PKK, adding that it could positively influence the Kurdish issue in Syria.
Turkey Condemns Israel’s Ban on UNRWA Operations
On October 29, Turkey’s Foreign Ministry criticized Israel’s decision to bar the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) from operating within its borders, calling it a violation of international law and a step to hinder Palestinian refugees' right of return.
“As Chair of the UNRWA Working Group on Financing, Turkey will continue to extend political and financial support to the Agency,” the Ministry said in a statement.
Fidan Meets British Foreign Secretary in London for Strategic Talks
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan visited London for the first time since the Labor Party came to power in the UK. Fidan met with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy on October 30.
During their discussions, the two ministers covered various topics, including Eurofighters, immigration, ongoing conflicts, Cyprus, and the free trade agreement. Although they did not hold a joint press conference afterwards, they recorded a video beforehand to outline their agenda and express hopes for a productive meeting.
David Lammy described Turkey as "an indispensable ally of Britain" and noted that London shares many views with Ankara. Fidan highlighted the importance of their strategic relationship, stating, "We aim to take this even further."
US Sanctions Nearly 400 People and Companies Aiding Russia’s War Efforts
The United States imposed sanctions on nearly 400 individuals and firms across more than a dozen countries, including Turkey, for allegedly supplying Russia with advanced technology that supports its military activities.
On October 30, the US Treasury Department revealed sweeping sanctions targeting 274 people and entities in nations such as India, China, Switzerland, and Turkey. Four individuals and 23 companies are among those affected in Turkey.
The State Department also targets entities in various third countries involved in helping Russia bypass sanctions, as well as senior Russian defense officials, defense companies, and organizations that support Russia's future energy production and exports.
In a statement, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo emphasized that the US, along with its allies, will continue taking strong actions worldwide to stop the flow of critical technology and equipment that Russia needs for its war in Ukraine.
Lavrov Criticizes Turkey for Supplying Arms to Ukraine
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed dissatisfaction with Turkey’s continued arms supply to Ukraine, stating that Turkish weapons are being used against Russian soldiers and civilians, according to an exclusive interview published by the Hurriyet Daily on November 1.
Lavrov shared these views in an exclusive interview, highlighting the Kremlin’s concern over Ankara’s ongoing military-technical support for Kyiv.
"It’s surprising to see Turkey maintain its military cooperation with Ukraine while also offering to mediate in the conflict," Lavrov remarked, noting that this contradiction raises questions about Turkey’s role as a mediator.
In the same interview, Lavrov addressed Syria-Turkey relations, noting that no agreement had been reached on Damascus’s demand for the withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syria.
Lavrov stated that Russia has consistently tried to ease conflicts between Damascus and Ankara, adding that both capitals have shown serious interest in resuming dialogue. He affirmed that Russia will actively encourage the rapid resumption of the negotiation process.
Additionally, Lavrov commented on Turkey’s potential membership in BRICS, explaining that any decision on Turkey joining the group will be made collectively by current BRICS members.
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