ANALYSIS
"Turkey's Syria Calculations Amid U.S. Troop Withdrawal from Iraq" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Under the proposed plan, the US troops are expected to leave Iraq by the end of 2026, with phased withdrawals that will likely have ripple effects beyond Iraq's borders. Turkey is likely to welcome the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq, viewing it as a gain that could expedite the U.S.'s exit from Syria.
For Turkey, this development might provide new opportunities to advance its strategic interests in Syria. Ankara views the SDF as an extension of the PKK, a terrorist organization according to Turkey and the US, and sees any empowerment of the SDF as a direct threat to its national security. Turkish officials have previously threatened military operations against the SDF in northeastern Syria. Up until now, the presence of U.S. forces in Syria has acted as a deterrent for large Turkish military operations.
Turkey will likely try to exploit any ambiguity in U.S. policy, employing its proxies to consolidate control over strategic territories in Syria. Although a full-scale Turkish intervention is not guaranteed, Ankara could still use the changing situation to encroach further upon SDF-held areas.
In Turkey's eyes, a reduced U.S. presence is not just a military advantage but also a diplomatic one, as it would force the SDF to reconsider its alliances and strategies, pushing them to come to terms that are favorable to Ankara.
"On the Verge of a New War" by Hasim Tekines, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Instead of consistent policies, Turkey generally follows different agendas that contradict each other during crises. Ankara will provide rhetorical support to any power opposing Israel. On the other hand, it will continue its trade with Israel through indirect means. On the Syrian front, it will see Hezbollah and Iran's preoccupation with Israel as an opportunity. The opportunity may not necessarily mean a new wave of attacks [by Turkish troops] against regime forces in Syria. However, the fact that the regime will not receive as much support from Iran and Hezbollah as before may cause it to adopt a more conciliatory policy towards Ankara. In the increasing tension between Arabs and Iran, we can expect Turkey to follow a more middle-ground policy, similar to its approach during the Ukraine crisis, to please both sides and achieve maximum gains.
Of course, all of this is not an inevitable fate. Conciliatory policies and diplomacy could have brought the region to a different point. However, the parties have not taken their hands off the trigger so far.
“Building BRICS: What Erdogan’s geopolitical gamble could mean for the West” by Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, European Council on Foreign Relations
Although BRICS produces 36-37 per cent of global GDP, the European Union remains Turkey’s main partner for trade and investment, and its main export market – in this arena, BRICS’ relationship with Turkey lags behind. But the Turkish reasoning for joining BRICS seems to be that, in addition to building trade opportunities, membership could make Ankara’s Western allies pay more attention to its domestic needs. At the very least, Ankara hopes they will soften their policy of cold-shouldering the Turkish capital.
It is evident that Turkey wants to retain its Western anchor; but also the flexibility to have a foot in each camp. Much like his illiberal counterparts in Serbia, Hungary, and the Gulf Arab monarchies, Erdogan views geopolitics as a constant hedging among great powers.
As it stands, Turkey’s BRICS membership application will be considered at the upcoming meeting in Kazan on 22 October, where both Erdogan and Putin will be in attendance. If it goes ahead, this will be a major coup for Russia and China – but it is not necessarily a loss for the West, assuming it can reconfigure its relationship with Turkey. This is the gamble on which Erdogan is counting.
POLITICS
New Welfare Party Leader Erbakan Declares No Future Alliances with Erdogan
Fatih Erbakan, leader of the Islamist New Welfare Party (YRP), said in an interview that his party will never again ally with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He accused Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AK Party) of distancing people from religion.
Erbakan explained that the YRP initially extended an "olive branch" to Erdogan by forming an alliance but later had to separate due to disappointment with the AK Party's continuation of the same policies after the elections, despite warnings from the YRP.
He also called for early elections in either autumn 2025 or spring 2026, stating that neither the Turkish people nor the AKP government can wait until 2028.
CHP Leader Ozgur Ozel Praises Turkish House, Denies Bribery Allegations
Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel, who was in New York on September 26 for an international meeting, visited Turkish House (Turkevi), a 36-story building opened in 2021 by President Erdogan.
Ozel’s visit coincided with the same day an indictment against New York City Mayor Eric Adams was revealed.
Speaking to reporters after his visit with a delegation from his party, Ozel highlighted that Turkey doesn’t need to pay bribes to ensure the opening of a skyscraper.
“If a gesture was made to us for the opening of this building, I’m sure we reciprocated by granting a prime plot of land for the US embassy in Ankara,” Ozel said.
He also called Turkish House “a source of pride for all of us” and stated that the CHP would hold all its future events in New York at Turkish House.
Ministry of National Education Ordered to Repay Misused 52,000 Euro Grant After Lawsuit
The daily Birgun reported that the Ministry of National Education failed to use the thousands of euros it received as a grant from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for its intended purpose.
The Ministry of National Education received 52,000 euros from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, claiming that high school students would intern at companies in the Netherlands.
However, institutions in the Netherlands reported they were unaware of the project, leading to its cancellation. In 2019, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs requested the return of the funds, but the Ministry of National Education did not repay them. As a result, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs filed a lawsuit against the Ministry of National Education in 2021, which was concluded in May 2023.
The court ruled that 52,064 euros be repaid to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, with an annual 3.5 percent late payment interest starting from June 22, 2019. It also ordered the Ministry of National Education to cover legal and attorney fees.
ECONOMY
Simsek: Inflation to Drop Below 20% Next Year, No New Taxes Planned
Simsek, accompanying President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to New York for the 79th United Nations General Assembly, spoke at an event organized by the US branch of the Anatolian Lions Businessmen's Association (ASKON).
Simsek highlighted that Turkey faced a significant current deficit a year ago, but it has decreased from around $57 billion to less than $20 billion thanks to measures taken. He added, "The current deficit is no longer a source of fragility or concern."
Simsek acknowledged that inflation remains high in Turkey, projecting it to be between 40-42 percent this year, with expectations of it dropping below 20 percent next year and into single digits the year after.
Simsek also met with top executives from major US investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley. In these discussions, Simsek informed investors that Turkey's tight fiscal policies would focus on spending discipline and combating informality. He also assured that no new additional taxes were planned.
Vice President Yilmaz: Stock Exchange and Crypto Taxes No Longer on Agenda
In an interview with Bloomberg, Vice President Yilmaz announced that the stock exchange tax and crypto tax are no longer priorities on the government’s agenda.
He explained that the main focus moving forward is to minimize exceptions and exemptions in taxation, emphasizing that significant changes to general and legal tax rates are not expected.
He added that the implementation of inflation accounting will likely be removed from Turkey's agenda in the future, especially by 2026, as inflation decreases.
Turkey to Introduce 10% Minimum Corporate Tax Starting in 2025
Turkey will implement a 10 percent minimum corporate tax for companies starting in 2025 to help reduce its budget deficit, Bloomberg reported.
The Treasury and Finance Ministry published a decree in the Official Gazette on September 28 stating that the minimum tax rate for corporate earnings will not fall below 10 percent before deductions and exemptions.
Earnings from projects using build-operate-transfer and public-private partnership models will be taxed at a rate of 30 percent.
Funds will be exempt from corporate tax if they distribute at least 50 percent of their real estate revenues as dividends. Additionally, the exemption on corporate real estate sales will be lifted.
Hunger and Poverty Thresholds Continue to Rise in September
The United Public-Business Confederation released its hunger and poverty survey data for September, revealing that the hunger threshold stands at 21,000 lira, while the poverty threshold is 65,873 lira.
The survey, conducted monthly by the Confederation, showed a 42 lira increase in the hunger threshold and a 1,715 lira rise in the poverty threshold compared to the previous month.
The Confederation highlighted the dire situation for millions of retirees living on a monthly pension of 12,500 lira—9,500 lira below the hunger threshold. Additionally, 7 million minimum wage workers in Turkey are trying to survive on wages that are 4,000 lira below the hunger threshold.
HUMAN RIGHTS
ECHR Orders Turkey to Pay Compensation for Multiple Rights Violations
The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) ruled that Turkey violated various rights in several cases, ordering the country to pay 121,740 euros in compensation.
The court found that the rights to liberty and security of 23 judges and prosecutors arrested after the coup attempt were violated due to unlawful detention, and 5,000 euros were awarded to each applicant.
In another case, the court ruled that the letters of 10 applicants were unlawfully scanned and recorded. However, only four of them were awarded compensation of 500 euros each.
Lastly, the court ruled that an applicant’s right to respect for correspondence was violated when an officer examined documents exchanged between the applicant and the lawyer. The ECHR ordered €9,750 in compensation for this violation.
Istanbul Court Releases 11 Defendants in Surreal Terror Trial
An Istanbul court ordered the release of 11 out of 19 defendants in a trial on September 27, where high school girls and others face charges of alleged membership in a terrorist organization. The trial will continue on December 12-13.
The case involves 41 defendants, including university and high school students, accused of participating in terrorist activities, which prosecutors claim included activities like playing sports, living in shared student housing, meeting at malls, and ordering food through delivery apps.
Several young defendants were released, but the court decided to keep Aysu Bayram, a liver transplant recipient and Parkinson's patient, in detention.
FOREIGN POLICY
NYC Mayor Eric Adams Charged with Accepting Illegal Contributions from Turkish Nationals
On September 26, U.S. prosecutors charged New York City Mayor Eric Adams with accepting illegal campaign contributions and luxury travel from Turkish nationals seeking to influence him.
According to the indictment, while serving as Brooklyn borough president, Adams accepted free travel from a Turkish airline worth tens of thousands of dollars and paid only $600 for a two-night stay at the St. Regis hotel in Istanbul, far below the actual cost of $7,000.
The indictment also alleges that Adams funneled Turkish campaign contributions through U.S. citizens during his 2021 mayoral race, enabling him to secure an additional $10 million in public financing.
In exchange, Adams reportedly pressured city safety inspectors to allow the opening of Turkey's new 36-story consulate in September 2021 despite it failing a fire inspection. The opening was allegedly done at the request of a Turkish diplomat ahead of President Erdogan's visit.
Adams, aged 64, faces five criminal charges and could face decades in prison if convicted. He denied any wrongdoing and vowed to fight the charges in court, stating that he would not step down.
Turkish foreign ministry spokesperson Oncu Keceli said on September 27 that Ankara is closely monitoring the case involving New York City Mayor Eric Adams. The spokesperson emphasized that Turkish diplomats adhere to the Vienna Conventions and diplomatic traditions, saying, "It is out of the question for us to interfere in the internal affairs of any country."
On the same day, Adams pleaded not guilty to federal charges during his first court appearance in Manhattan. U.S. Magistrate Judge Katharine Parker released him without bail on the condition that he avoids contact with witnesses or individuals named in the indictment. Adams is scheduled to appear in court again on October 2.
Erdogan Calls for Lifting U.S. Sanctions to Enhance Defense Cooperation
Turkish President Erdogan called for the permanent lifting of U.S. sanctions that block some defense purchases and other unilateral measures that hinder NATO allies' ability to achieve long-term trade goals.
During his visit to New York for the U.N. General Assembly on September 23, Erdogan addressed Turkish and American businesspeople, stating that while he believed meeting these goals was possible, cooperation in the defense industry had "fallen very short" of its potential due to ongoing restrictions.
He stated, "For this, unilateral actions like additional tariffs on iron, steel, and aluminum, probes, and CAATSA sanctions need to be abandoned."
Erdogan Condemns Western Support for Israel, Says UN Values "Dying" in Gaza
On September 24, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan stated that the values of the United Nations system and the Western world are "dying" in Gaza as the conflict continues.
Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly, Erdogan criticized Israel's military campaign in Gaza and condemned Western nations for their support of Israel. He accused those pushing for a ceasefire of secretly supplying Israel with weapons and ammunition to continue its attacks, calling it "inconsistent and insincere."
Erdogan also expressed Turkey's support for the people of Lebanon, as Israel targets Hezbollah fighters with airstrikes.
Turkish Parliament Speaker Meets with Putin in Moscow
Speaker of the Turkish Grand National Assembly, Numan Kurtulmus, visited Moscow, where he engaged with students at the Russian Foreign Ministry Diplomatic Academy, visited the Moscow Central Mosque, and met with Muslim community leaders.
On September 25, Kurtulmus met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin Palace for a 40-minute discussion. Kurtulmus expressed satisfaction that Turkey and Russia share similar views on many issues.
According to a Kremlin statement, Putin noted, "We are very pleased with the development of our relations with Turkey in all areas, including parliamentary cooperation." Putin also announced that he would meet Turkish President Erdogan in a separate bilateral meeting during the BRICS summit in Kazan, Tatarstan, from October 22-24.
While Turkey had not officially confirmed Erdogan's attendance at the summit, Putin’s announcement made this information public for the first time.
Erdogan Expresses Hope for Improved U.S. Relations with New President
Turkish President Erdogan stated on September 26 that he hopes the new U.S. president would lead to better relations between the two countries.
Speaking to Turkish journalists in New York before departing from the U.N. General Assembly, Erdogan stated that Turkey still seeks reimbursement for the funds it spent on F-35 fighter jets after being removed from the program due to its Russian purchases. "My hope is that whoever comes does not make us miss the outgoing one," Erdogan said.
Berlin Concludes Deportation Deal with Turkey
The German and Turkish governments have reached an agreement on the deportation of more than 13,500 Turks whose asylum applications were rejected, the German Frankfurter Allgemeine (FAZ) newspaper reported. According to the deal, Ankara has agreed to accept up to 500 citizens weekly.
Negotiations for these deportations have been ongoing since Turkish President Erdogan visited Berlin last November. In exchange, the local media claimed that Germany promised to expedite existing visa procedures.
In the first half of 2024, Germany deported a total of 441 people to Turkey. As of June 30, nearly 15,000 individuals from Turkey were required to leave Germany. The main reasons for migration are seen as poor economic conditions and increasing government pressure in Turkey, with official inflation exceeding 80 percent.
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Oncu Keceli denied the reports in the German press on September 27, stating that Turkey did not approve of any such agreement. Keceli added that the deal was not discussed during the meeting between President Erdogan and German Chancellor Scholz in New York on September 23.
Turkey Denies US Deal on F-35 Return in Exchange for S-400 Control Transfer
The Turkish Defense Ministry has denied reports of a deal between the US and Turkey to facilitate Turkey’s return to the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Program in exchange for handing over control of a Russian S-400 missile defense system to the US at Incirlik Airbase in southern Turkey.
The Greek newspaper Kathimerini claimed that the US had made a detailed proposal allowing Turkey to keep the missiles on its soil but transfer control to the US.
Defense Ministry spokesperson addressed these claims at a press briefing on September 26, saying, "Reports from third countries about this issue should be viewed cautiously. There has been no change in the positions of both countries regarding the S-400s and the F-35 program."
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