ANALYSIS
“Turkey blocks exports of military-linked goods to Russia after US warning” by Adam Samson, Max Seddon, and Chris Cook, Financial Times
Turkey has secretly barred exports to Russia of US military-linked hardware after Washington warned Ankara of “consequences” if it did not halt the trade.
Ankara has in recent weeks adjusted its customs systems to block exports of more than four dozen categories of US-origin goods that Washington and its western allies view as vital to Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine.
Turkey’s electronic customs system no longer allows exporters to proceed with sending shipments of the so-called “battlefield goods” to Russia, one of the people said, having previously enabled them to be transported there. Similar goods originating from the EU were blocked earlier and remain so, two of the people said.
The trade curbs, which affect civilian parts such as microchips and remote control systems that western allies say are being used in weaponry, were not publicly announced because of “political sensitivities.”
"At Putin-Hosted Summit, One Guest Stood Out: Erdogan" by Valerie Hopkins and David Pierson, The New York Times
Analysts say that Mr. Erdogan’s visit was emblematic of his years of hedging between East and West. The war in Ukraine, especially, has highlighted that stance: Turkey remains a strategic partner in NATO and sells powerful weapons to Ukraine but has refused to join Western sanctions on Moscow and has increased trade with Russia.
“Ankara believes the U.S.-led world order is in decline and wants to survive in a multipolar world by having a foot in each camp,” said Asli Aydintasbas, a visiting fellow focused on Turkey at the Brookings Institution. “It wants to stay in NATO and trade with BRICS — and the world is so fragmented right now that it can do so.”
Both Turkey and Russia have much to gain from the meetings in Kazan, she said.
Mr. Erdogan may be looking for investments from BRICS members to boost Turkey’s ailing economy, said Kerim Has, an independent analyst of Turkish-Russian relations based in Moscow.
“Investments from Western countries are not enough and it is important for Erdogan to reach investor countries like China and India,” he said, adding that Mr. Erdogan may also want to improve relations with BRICS members in the Middle East.
POLITICS
CHP Chairman Ozel Meets with Selahattin Demirtas in Prison
On October 21, CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel visited former HDP Co-Chair Selahattin Demirtas in Edirne Prison. He was accompanied by Malatya Deputy Veli Agbaba and Diyarbakir Deputy Sezgin Tanrikulu.
After their approximately three-hour meeting, Ozel stated they swiftly addressed Turkey's issues together with Demirtas. He emphasized their agreement on the importance of the Parliament in addressing the problem of terrorism.
Demirtas also confirmed they discussed several national problems during their meeting, saying, "The solution to Turkey's problems is politics, and the institution for the solution is the Parliament."
Bahceli Proposes PKK Leader Speak in Parliament if Insurgency Ends
In a surprising statement to MHP lawmakers on October 22, Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader and Erdogan ally Devlet Bahceli proposed that Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdish militant PKK, could address Turkey's Parliament if he publicly calls for an end to the PKK's insurgency.
Bahceli told lawmakers that if Ocalan’s isolation were lifted, he could “come and speak,” urging him to announce the end of terrorism and the disbanding of the PKK.
He indicated that if Abdullah Ocalan did this, he should be given the "right to hope," hinting at the possibility of his freedom.
Bahceli’s proposal has ignited outrage and scepticism among opposition parties while gaining support from ruling party and the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM).
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan backed Bahceli’s call, stating that a historic chance to resolve the Kurdish issue should not be missed. “The historic window of opportunity we have opened as the People's Alliance must not be sacrificed to ambition,” Erdogan said.
DEM Party co-leader Tulay Hatimogullari voiced readiness to support an “honourable peace,” calling for an end to Ocalan’s isolation so he could be heard in Parliament.
Ozgur Ozel, leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), raised scepticism about Bahceli’s proposal in a speech at his party’s group meeting, arguing that such initiatives need broader social consensus through a “transparent and accountable” process that includes all political parties in Parliament.
During his party’s group meeting on October 23, Nationalist opposition Good Party leader Musavat Dervisoglu threw a rope from the podium, addressing Bahceli with, “You have destroyed the memories of this great nation and murdered its future. Now take this rope and hang it above your head.”
Felicity Party Chairman Temel Karamollaoğlu expressed his support for the recent call in a social media post, but he also voiced concerns. He noted that the government has "zigzagged" and taken backward steps on similar issues in the past.
DEVA Party Chairman Ali Babacan also urged Erdogan and Bahceli, saying, "We don’t have a single day or hour to lose. End Turkey’s decades-long struggle with terrorism. If you are sincere, take action."
On October 25, Ozel stated, “Ocalan doesn’t need to appear at the podium to speak.” He proposed that Ocalan could instead make a statement directly from Imrali, saying, "If Ocalan is given the opportunity there, he can make his call from where he is," Ozel said.
Terrorist Attack at Turkish Aerospace Headquarters Leaves Five Dead, 22 Injured
On October 23, two attackers killed five people and injured 22 others in what Ankara described as a terrorist attack at the Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAS) headquarters, the country's largest aerospace manufacturer. Witnesses reported hearing gunfire and an explosion during the incident.
Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya confirmed that both attackers were killed following the assault and stated that they were "highly likely" members of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
President Erdogan condemned the attack during a BRICS conference in Kazan, Russia, where he received condolences from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Many Turkish politicians, as well as NATO, the United States, and the European Union strongly condemned the attack.
The DEM Party issued a statement regarding the recent terror attack, emphasizing the significance of the timing as Turkish society discusses solutions and the potential for dialogue. "We must protect peace more than ever to prevent such painful events from occurring again," it said.
Former HDP Co-Chairman jailed Selahattin Demirtas said: "They will never allow the voices of those who seek peace to be silenced this time."
In response to the attack, Turkish air forces carried out airstrikes in northern Iraq and northern Syria, destroying 32 PKK targets, with the defense ministry reporting that many PKK members were killed.
On October 25, the PKK claimed responsibility for the attack, stating that it had been planned for a long time and was not connected to Turkey's current political discussions.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that Turkish drone strikes killed 27 civilians in Syria in 24 hours following a deadly attack in Ankara. SOHR noted that since October 24, Turkish forces have significantly intensified their aerial and ground operations in northern and eastern Syria.
Treasury Aid for Political Parties in 2025 Announced
The Treasury has announced the amount of aid for political parties that met the election threshold and entered Parliament in the general elections. The five parties that received 6.682 billion TL in aid from the Treasury for the local elections this year will get 5.068 billion TL in aid in 2025.
The AK Party will receive the most significant support, totaling 2.016 billion TL. The main opposition CHP will get 1.435 billion TL, the MHP 570 million TL, the Good Party 548 million TL, and the DEM Party 499 million TL.
This year, the five political parties were allocated three times the budget aid for the year (4.5 billion TL) due to the general elections in 2023 and twice the budget aid (6.7 billion TL) for the local elections.
Turkish Embassy Employee Sentenced for Cocaine Smuggling
Halk TV reporter Dincer Gokce reported that 57 kilos of cocaine arrived in Istanbul in February 2023 in a diplomatic vehicle from the Turkish Embassy in Minsk.
The driver, Birkan Demirci, employed by the Foreign Ministry since 2016, transported the drugs, which were tracked by authorities. Police intercepted the vehicle in Zeytinburnu, seizing two suitcases filled with cocaine as they were being handed over to Sahin Sekerci. Three people, including the embassy employee Demirci, were arrested. Sekerci, initially detained, was later released for unknown reasons but subsequently disappeared.
In court, Demirci and another accomplice, Serkan Albayrak, were each sentenced to 17 years and 6 months for drug trafficking.
ECONOMY
Turkey Secures $1.9 Billion in World Bank Financing, Negotiates for Additional Funding
On October 23, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, attending the G20 and World Bank meetings in the U.S., signed a financing agreement with the World Bank to support four key projects under favourable terms.
The projects, focused on energy efficiency, drought response, and earthquake preparedness, will be managed by the Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change ministries, Agriculture and Forestry, and Industry and Technology.
With this agreement, Turkey has received $1.9 billion in financing, bringing the total World Bank support for the year to $3.9 billion.
According to a source familiar with the matter, the World Bank is also in discussions with Turkey to raise its financing beyond the $35 billion already allocated through 2028. The source told Reuters that a "further increase" is expected.
Last year, the World Bank raised its financing for Turkey from $17 billion to $35 billion.
Yellen and Turkish Finance Minister Simsek Discuss Sanctions Compliance
On October 25, the US Department of Treasury announced that Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen met with Turkish Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek and Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan during the 2024 Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank.
The discussion focused on the importance of sanctions compliance and measures to prevent the misuse of Turkey’s financial system by sanctions evaders and terrorist groups, according to the Treasury’s statement.
IMF Adjusts Growth Forecast for Turkey to 3% in 2023
In its October edition of the World Economic Outlook Report, the IMF forecasted Turkey's economy to grow by 3% this year and 2.7% next year. These figures represent a downward adjustment from the IMF's July predictions, which anticipated a 3.6% growth for 2024 and 2.7% for 2025.
The report also set Turkey's year-end inflation expectations at 43% for 2023 and 24% for the end of 2025.
IMF Urges Turkey to Avoid Inflationary Wage Hike
The IMF’s mission chief for Turkey advised Ankara to avoid another inflation-driving minimum wage hike when the next adjustment is due on January 1. Instead, the IMF suggests focusing on social programs, such as cash transfers or targeted government support, to aid low-income households.
IMF official Walsh also noted that further interest rate hikes might be necessary to meet the 2025 inflation target of 14%. Highlighting Turkey's vulnerability to inflation from potential energy shocks due to high energy imports, Walsh suggested Turkey to increase renewable energy production to help mitigate this risk.
Turkish Construction Sector Secures $11.8 Billion in International Projects
In its October construction sector analysis, the Turkish Contractors Association (TMB) reported that the Turkish construction sector completed 161 international projects between January and September, totalling $11.8 billion (around 404.6 billion lira). The sector's international portfolio has reached $515.8 billion, with 12,297 projects across 137 countries.
Saudi Arabia led as the top market with $2.3 billion in projects, followed by Algeria with $1.7 billion and Gabon with $1.2 billion.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Editor-in-Chief of Yeni Asya Newspaper Arrested for Condolences to Turkish Cleric
Kazim Gulecyuz, the editor-in-chief of Turkey's Yeni Asya newspaper, was arrested on October 23 for allegedly spreading terrorist propaganda after expressing condolences for the death of Turkish cleric Fethullah Gülen. Gulecyuz posted a condolence message on X following Gülen's passing.
Early in the day, Gulecyuz and three others were detained during home raids conducted as part of an investigation led by the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office.
Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen, founder of a prominent Islamic movement in Turkey, passed away on October 20 at the age of 86. Gulen had lived in self-imposed exile in the United States since 1999.
ECtHR Rules Turkey Violated Fair Trial Rights of 10 Judges and Prosecutors
The European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) ruled on October 22 that Turkey violated the fair trial rights of 10 judges and prosecutors.
The court found that Turkey’s Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors (HSYK) did not provide adequate procedural safeguards or detailed reasoning in its decisions regarding these applicants, which compromised their right to a fair hearing.
The case, Şişman and Others v. Turkey involved judges and prosecutors who were involuntarily transferred to different cities or, in one instance, demoted within the same city between 2014 and 2015 based on a series of HSYK decisions.
UNHCR Criticizes Kenya’s Return of Four Gulen Movement Followers to Turkey
The UN refugee agency (UNHCR) expressed “deep concern” over reports that Kenya returned four refugees, allegedly followers of the Gulen movement, to Turkey. In a statement, UNHCR urged the Kenyan government to honour international obligations, emphasizing the importance of the non-refoulement principle, which protects refugees from forced return.
Kenya's foreign ministry said the deportations were conducted at Turkey’s request, citing “strong historical and strategic relations” between the nations. Kenya added that it had received assurances that the individuals would be “treated with dignity” in Turkey.
FOREIGN POLICY
India Denies Vetoing Turkey’s BRICS Membership Bid
On October 24, President Erdogan attended the 16th BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, upon invitation from Russian President Putin. Erdogan addressed global issues, including Israel’s attacks on Palestine and the recent deadly attack in Ankara, in his speech to Forum delegates.
“We are committed to strengthening our dialogue with the BRICS family, with whom we have built close relations grounded in mutual respect and a win-win approach,” Erdogan said.
A highly anticipated one-on-one meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not take place as expected at the BRICS summit. Instead, they met for 50 minutes involving both delegations, and the meeting covered bilateral issues.
The German newspaper BILD reported that India blocked Turkey's membership bid due to Ankara’s close ties with Pakistan, preventing the consensus needed for approval.
BRICS leaders also agreed not to admit new members for now. Some countries oppose further expansion within the group as the organization continues integrating new members, such as Iran, the UAE, Egypt, and Ethiopia, who joined in early 2024.
Instead of full membership, Turkey was granted “partner country” status, joining Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, and 13 other nations.
Euronews Turkish reported that Indian authorities denied that they vetoed Turkey's BRICS membership. In a statement from the Indian Embassy in Ankara, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quoted as welcoming new members to the "family" and expressing satisfaction with the expanded summit.
Turkey and Somalia Sign Deal for Joint Hydrocarbon Exploration
Turkey's state-owned energy company, TPAO, and Somalia's petroleum authority have signed a deal to explore hydrocarbons onshore in Somalia, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar announced on October 25.
At a ceremony in Mogadishu to welcome Turkey's Oruc Reis seismic research vessel, Bayraktar said this new agreement would enhance cooperation between Turkey and Somalia. The Oruc Reis will begin searching for oil and natural gas off Somalia's coast under a previous agreement signed in March.
U.S. Appeals Court Allows Halkbank Prosecution Over Alleged Iran Sanctions Evasion
On October 22, a U.S. appeals court ruled that the federal government could prosecute Turkey’s state-owned Halkbank, dismissing its claim to immunity. In a unanimous decision, the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals determined that Halkbank did not qualify for immunity under long-standing common law principles, as the alleged actions involved commercial rather than governmental activities.
Circuit Judge Joseph Bianco stated the court would defer to the executive branch's view that the Department of Justice has grounds to prosecute. Halkbank responded, saying it would exercise all legal options, including appealing to the U.S. Supreme Court.
Prosecutors allege that Halkbank helped Iran transfer $20 billion in restricted funds, convert oil revenue into gold and cash, and create fake documentation for food shipments to legitimize oil-related transfers.
Erdogan Urges Black Sea Shipping Talks as Putin Signals Openness Amid Ongoing Conflict
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan proposed reviving discussions on Black Sea shipping. Putin has yet to review the details. Turkey and U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres have long advocated for safer merchant shipping in the war-affected Black Sea. Erdogan also discussed potential peace negotiations and a prisoner swap with Putin, underscoring Turkey's desire to mediate a peaceful resolution.
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