ANALYSIS
"What Does the Muted Reaction from the West to Imamoğlu's Arrest Tell Us?" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Foreign policy is traditionally shaped by national interests rather than moral considerations. In the case of Turkey, Western diplomats and analysts likely view defending Imamoğlu or other opposition figures as a futile exercise. Their assessments suggest that Erdogan has a firm grip on power and that his political challengers face insurmountable obstacles.
The tepid Western reaction to Imamoğlu's arrest reaffirms that human rights, civil liberties, and democracy are not primary drivers of foreign policy when interests are at stake. Western governments appear to have concluded that Erdogan will continue to rule Turkey in the foreseeable future and that Imamoğlu's political survival is unlikely.
If Turkey does not descend into chaos following Imamoğlu's arrest and possible imprisonment, and if the crackdown remains limited to him and a few other politicians, Western leaders will likely maintain business as usual with Ankara. Their priority is to ensure that Turkey remains a stable and cooperative partner on security and regional geopolitical issues.
Report: "Modernizing the Turkey–EU Customs Union: Issues and Prospects", The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
The report provides a comprehensive assessment of how modernization could enhance economic growth, reduce trade barriers, and strengthen Turkey's role in EU markets while addressing key regulatory and political challenges that have hindered negotiations.
It also highlights how modernization could unlock economic opportunities by expanding Turkey's access to EU markets, increasing foreign direct investment, and integrating critical sectors such as agriculture, digital trade, and public procurement.
Key Findings:
Recommendations for Turkey:
"President Erdogan jails his rival, and endangers Turkey's democracy", The Economist
Turkey is nearing a point of no return. Only last week, its government was still what political scientists call a competitive authoritarian regime: although President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wields unchecked executive powers and de facto control over the courts and most of the media, Turkey's elections had remained mostly free. But on March 19th police detained Mr Imamoglu, who has emerged as Mr Erdogan's strongest rival, along with dozens of others, including his top advisers and other local officials. What remains is close to naked autocracy.
Mr Imamoglu's long survival is precisely what has made him so dangerous to Turkey's leader, and so appealing to voters. For months he has enjoyed a comfortable lead over Mr Erdogan in the polls. As a presidential contender he has many strengths. He belongs to a secular party, but appeals to the pious. He runs the biggest city in Europe but hails from Turkey's heartland. He has ample charisma. "Erdogan and his people must have concluded he would be an unstoppable force," says Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute, an American think-tank.
"Turkey Is Now a Full-Blown Autocracy" by Gonul Tol, Foreign Affairs
Erdogan is playing a high-risk, high-reward game. If he succeeds, he'll head into the next election against an opponent he chose himself, effectively securing his rule for life. This power grab suggests he believes he can act with impunity.
The Turkish leader is also taking advantage of an exceptionally permissive international environment. U.S. President Donald Trump's return to the White House has emboldened Erdogan; he does not fear a U.S. reprisal now that Trump is actively undermining U.S. democracy and showing zero interest in holding foreign autocrats accountable for their repression. Trump's overtures to Putin have also rattled European leaders, compelling them to reengage with Turkey in hopes of shoring up their defenses against Russian aggression—and they are most likely willing to ignore Erdogan's deepening autocracy if it means securing Ankara's support.
More important, Erdogan may aspire to be like Putin, but Turkey is not Russia. Unlike Russia, which thrives on resource wealth, Turkey's economy is deeply dependent on foreign investment. Investors are already fleeing as the county grows more authoritarian, and a slide into full autocracy will hardly bring them back. The Turkish economy would remain mired in crisis. And even a strongman must deliver results to maintain his grip on power.
"Turkey Wants to Be a European Power Now" by Dimitar Bechev, Foreign Policy
Much hinges on Trump's ongoing effort to convince Putin to agree to a cease-fire. However, if some sort of deal is cut, Turkey could play a major part in making it stick. Having extended steadfast support to Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, but also having kept ties to Russia and even having led mediation efforts, Turkey's military presence would likely be acceptable to both parties. While Moscow has lashed out at the idea of European peacekeepers, it has been silent on Turkey.
Turkey now hopes that security cooperation with Europe in Ukraine could spill into the EU-Turkey relationship. This could involve a wider security partnership based on containing Russia and underwriting stability in Europe. But Turks are also keen to negotiate an update of their 1995 Customs Union. Like Europe's other trading partners, Turkey has been adapting to the European Commission's Green Deal and adopting legislation in line with EU environmental standards to ensure unfettered access to the single market. But it would ultimately like an expansion of the trading benefits it currently enjoys.
POLITICS
Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu Arrested Ahead of 2028 Election
On March 19, Turkish police raided the home of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, detaining him over a corruption probe just days before he was expected to be named his party's candidate for the 2028 presidential election. Along with Imamoglu, Beylikduzu Mayor Murat Calik and Sisli Mayor Resul Emrah Sahan were also detained.
"Hundreds of police officers have arrived at my door. I entrust myself to the people," Imamoglu said in a video posted on X before his arrest.
The raid came just hours after Istanbul University revoked his degree, claiming it had been falsely obtained.
The Istanbul public prosecutor's office accused Imamoglu of leading a "criminal organization" and charged him with bribery and extortion, stating that 100 suspects had been detained. Meanwhile, local media reported that his arrest was also linked to allegations of aiding the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), with seven others also detained.
Following Imamoglu's detention, the Istanbul governor's office banned all protests until March 23.
Following his detention, a Turkish court ordered the seizure of Imamoglu Insaat, a construction company owned by Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and his family. Mayor Imamoglu is among the company's partners. The decision came at the request of the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office.
On March 20, CHP leader Ozgur Ozel declared that the party would no longer conduct politics in buildings or halls, emphasizing that they would take their efforts to the streets and squares.
In response, President Erdogan stated on March 21 that the government would not tolerate street protests and accused the opposition party of having ties to corruption, extremist groups, and terrorist organizations.
Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc also warned that calls for street protests were illegal, writing on X that such actions based on ongoing judicial investigations were unlawful and unacceptable.
Meanwhile, the mayor's interrogation began on March 21, marking the third day of his detention.
On March 22, Mayor Imamoğlu appeared before prosecutors at the Çağlayan Courthouse for questioning in connection with terrorism and corruption investigations.
President Erdogan warned the opposition party CHP again on March 22, stating that protests would not be tolerated. "I'd like to remind you again that the period of going out on the streets, wagging a finger against national will, has passed," Erdogan said.
On the evening of March 22, Istanbul's governor announced that people suspected of heading to rallies would not be allowed to enter or leave the city. The governor also extended the protest ban, initially set to end on March 23, until March 27.
In the early hours of March 23, Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu appeared before a judge alongside dozens of others. He was formally arrested on corruption charges, which he has denied. The court rejected a request to arrest Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on terrorism-related charges in a separate ongoing investigation.
Beylikduzu Mayor Mehmet Murat Calik, who was detained on March 19 in a corruption investigation, was arrested on March 23.
Sisli Mayor Resul Emrah Sahan was also arrested on charges of "aiding a terrorist organization" as part of a separate terrorism investigation.
CHP condemned his arrest on corruption charges, calling it "a political coup d'etat." The party wrote on X, "No despair! Keep fighting!"
CHP leader Ozel made his first statement after the mayor's arrest at Caglayan Courthouse. "He was arrested because his only crime was defeating Erdogan. We are facing two conspiracies," he said.
Imamoglu had been preparing to announce his candidacy for the 2028 presidential election on March 23. Polls opened at 8:00 am with 5,600 ballot boxes set up across 81 cities. The CHP announced that the vote was open to everyone, not just party members, aiming for a strong show of support for Imamoglu.
The same day, the Interior Ministry announced the suspension of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and the two district mayors. The ministry also appointed Sisli District Governor Cevdet Erturkmen as Sisli Deputy Mayor.
CHP leader Ozgur Ozel announced that Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu received 14.85 million votes in the party's primary elections for its presidential candidate.
Ozel stated that 1.65 million out of 1.75 million registered CHP members participated in the vote. Additionally, 13.21 million people cast their votes in specially established "solidarity ballot boxes."
Reactions Grow Over Imamoglu's Detention
CHP leader Ozgur Ozel condemned the arrest, calling it a "coup attempt against our next president." He stated on X, "Using force to override the people's will is a coup."
Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas, a leading opposition figure from the CHP, criticized the detention as "absolutely unacceptable," calling it an attack on democracy.
DEM Party Co-chair Tuncay Bakirhan called the arrests "an open attack on democracy" and demanded the immediate release of all detainees. Fellow Co-chair Tulay Hatimogullari described the operation as a politically motivated move to create social unrest.
Good Party leader Musavat Dervisoglu suggested boycotting future elections if Erdogan continues targeting political rivals and ignoring constitutional limits.
Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc rejected claims linking the operation against Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu to President Erdogan, calling such accusations "impertinent" and emphasizing judicial independence.
MHP leader Devlet Bahceli, a key ally of Erdogan's AKP, defended the legal actions, stating that no individual is "untouchable."
International reactions also followed swiftly. The European Parliament's Turkey rapporteur, Nacho Sanchez Amor, warned that Turkey was moving "full speed towards a complete authoritarian state."
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called Imamoglu's detention "deeply concerning," while Germany's foreign ministry spokesperson Sebastian Fischer described it as a "serious setback for democracy" in Turkey.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called the mayor's detention harmful to democracy and relations with Europe. Speaking at a European Union leaders' summit in Brussels, Scholz described the detention as a "very, very bad sign" and urged Turkish authorities to cease actions against political opposition.
Istanbul University Cancels Imamoglu's Diploma
Istanbul University announced on March 18 that it had canceled Ekrem Imamoglu's diploma from its English-language business administration program, citing "absence" and a "clear error" in graduation records. The decision affected 27 other graduates, including Prof. Dr. Aylin Ataay Saybasili, head of the business department at Galatasaray University.
CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel declared, "Ekrem is our presidential candidate. This is not a legal action but a political one, and we will respond politically in the strongest way."
Imamoglu called the decision unlawful, stating, "The university board has no authority to do this. Only the Faculty Board of Directors can make such a decision."
Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas also reacted strongly, announcing, "I am suspending my presidential candidacy until this injustice is corrected."
Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu Faces New Investigation Over Daycare Centers
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu faces a new investigation concerning city-run daycare centers, which were allegedly opened without the municipality's authorization.
Imamoglu, who has been detained since March 19, revealed on X on March 21 through his lawyers that prosecutors have launched a new probe into him for establishing these daycare centers.
The mayor expressed his willingness to provide a statement to the prosecutors as part of the investigation but said he still remains in detention.
CHP Leader Ozel Announces Extraordinary Congress on April 6
CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel announced that an extraordinary congress will be held on April 6 to prevent the appointment of a "trustee" to the party following the investigation into the cancellation of the 38th Ordinary Congress. Ozel stated, "We declare to all of Turkey that we have blocked the trustee attempts by taking the party to an extraordinary congress."
Ozel confirmed that he would run for re-election as chairman at the congress, adding that other party members who wish to apply for candidacy can also do so. He emphasized his intention to renew the trust of the delegates by seeking re-election.
DEM Party Meets with AK Party and MHP After Ocalan's Call
On March 17, a delegation from the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), led by Co-Chairs Tulay Hatimogullari and Tuncer Bakirhan, met with representatives from the ruling AK Party and the far-right MHP. The meetings followed jailed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan's February 27 call for the group to lay down its arms.
The DEM Party first met with MHP officials at the Turkish Parliament. MHP Deputy Chairman Feti Yildiz described the meeting as "very productive."
Later, the delegation held a closed-door discussion with AK Party officials, including Deputy Chair Efkan Ala, Party Spokesperson Omer Celik, and parliamentary group deputy chair Abdullah Guler. No joint statement was released after the talks.
Justice Minister Rules Out Parole for Ocalan
Turkish Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc ruled out the possibility of releasing Kurdish militant leader Abdullah Ocalan from prison despite ongoing peace discussions.
Speaking to media representatives in Ankara on March 18, Tunc addressed debates on whether Ocalan could benefit from the "right to hope." Tunc said that prisoners serving aggravated life sentences, particularly those commuted from a death sentence, are not eligible for parole.
Turkish Defense Ministry Urges PKK to Declare Disarmament Date
A spokesperson for the Turkish Defense Ministry has called on the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) to immediately set a date for a congress to declare its disarmament.
"The terrorist organization, along with all its branches, should immediately announce the date it will end its activities, disband itself, lay down its arms unconditionally, and hand them over," said Rear Adm. Zeki Akturk during a weekly press briefing on March 20.
ECONOMY
Turkey's Central Bank Sells Record Foreign Exchange as Lira Plunges
Turkey's central bank sold nearly $10 billion in foreign currency on March 19 after the lira fell more than 12% following the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, three bankers told Reuters.
The bankers noted that while the central bank did not directly intervene in the exchange rate, its foreign exchange transactions through public banks signaled a record level of currency sales.
Hakan Kara, the former chief economist of the central bank claimed that around $23 billion in foreign currency was sold over the past three days.
Central Bank Hikes Overnight Lending Rate to 46%
Turkey's central bank unexpectedly raised its overnight lending rate by two percentage points on March 20 to stabilize the lira after its sharp decline following the detention of Istanbul's mayor.
The bank increased the overnight lending rate to 46% while keeping the benchmark one-week repo rate unchanged at 42.5%. It said the move aimed to tighten monetary policy to counter inflation risks after the lira plunged 12% on March 19.
US and Turkish Treasury Ministers Discuss Economic and Security Issues
US Treasury Secretary Scott K.H. Bessent spoke with Turkey's Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek on March 17. During the call, Bessent and Simsek discussed recent developments in Turkey's economy, according to the US Treasury.
Minister Bessent shared the US administration's commitment to re-establish maximum pressure on Iran to end its nuclear threat, restrict its ballistic missile programs, and stop supporting terrorist groups. The conversation also covered sanctions and shared economic and national security concerns.
US Extends Sanction Waiver for Turkey's Russian Gas Imports
The US has agreed to extend a sanction waiver, allowing Turkey to continue purchasing Russian natural gas until May, Bloomberg reported.
In November, the US sanctioned Gazprombank to curb Russia's gas revenues. However, Turkey and Hungary were later granted exemptions. Turkey's initial three-month waiver was set to expire on March 20, but the extension now gives the country additional time to maintain its energy imports.
Record High in Enforcement Files in Turkey: 22.8 Million Cases
The number of files in enforcement offices has reached a new record of 22.8 million. Every day, more than 31 thousand new enforcement files are opened.
As of March 17, the total number of pending cases reached 22,799,037. Since the beginning of the year, 2,203,829 new enforcement and bankruptcy files have been filed.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Social Media Access Restricted in Turkey Following Imamoglu's Detention
Since the morning of March 19, people across Turkey have faced access issues on several social media platforms.
London-based internet watchdog Netblocks confirmed that access to X, YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok was restricted after Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and dozens of others were detained.
Netblocks stated, "Live metrics show that Turkey has restricted access to multiple social media platforms, including X, YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok."
However, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced that over 18 million posts were shared on X following the mayor's detention. He also reported that 37 people were detained due to their social media posts.
X Blocks Student Accounts Amid Protests Over Imamoglu's Arrest
X blocked access to accounts run by student groups at leading Turkish universities at the request of the Turkish government during nationwide protests over Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu's arrest and the cancellation of his university diploma.
Students from major universities like Galatasaray University, Middle East Technical University (ODTU), and Bogazici University used these accounts to share updates and organize demonstrations.
343 Detained After Third Night of Protests in Support of İstanbul Mayor
Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on March 22 that 343 people were detained following the third consecutive night of protests in support of İstanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. Yerlikaya warned that those seeking to create "chaos and provocation" would not be tolerated.
On March 21, hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets across Turkey, leading to clashes with riot police in İstanbul, Ankara, and İzmir. Riot police used tear gas, rubber bullets, and water cannons to disperse the protesters in these cities, with clashes also reported in other areas.
HRW Urges Immediate Release of Istanbul Mayor
Human Rights Watch (HRW) condemned the detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and other officials and politicians on March 19, calling it a politically motivated effort to suppress lawful political activities.
HRW further urged President Erdogan to respect the results of the Istanbul municipal elections and avoid using the criminal justice system for political purposes. It called for their immediate release from police custody.
PACE Demands Immediate Release of Imamoglu, Condemns Political Suppression
On March 19, the Bureau of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) called for the immediate release of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, criticizing his detention as a politically motivated attempt to silence Turkey's opposition before the 2028 presidential election.
PACE also condemned Istanbul University's decision to revoke Imamoglu's degree and urged the university to reverse it.
Turkish Man Jailed in Ankara After Deportation from Germany Over Gulen Links
Turkish authorities arrested 35-year-old Nusret Tas on December 20, just one day after Germany deported him following the rejection of his asylum claim. Turkish prosecutors charge Tas with membership in the Gulen movement.
After losing his legal appeals in Germany, officials sent him back to Turkey, where police detained him upon arrival at Ankara Esenboga Airport. The Ankara 1st Criminal Judgeship of Peace ordered Tas to remain in pretrial detention pending trial.
Istanbul Bar Association Board Dismissed Over Terrorism Charges
A court ruled to dismiss the Istanbul Bar Association's executive board on March 21, citing allegations of "terrorist propaganda" and "spreading false information."
Bar Association President Ibrahim Kaboglu and the board of directors were removed from their positions. Kaboglu stated that the decision could be appealed in higher courts and affirmed, "As the Istanbul Bar Association administration, we remain on duty."
The dismissal follows a lawsuit filed by prosecutors on January 15, weeks after the Bar Association called for an investigation into the deaths of journalists Nazim Dastan and Cihan Bilgin, who were killed in northern Syria on December 19.
Alevi Leader Arrested in Turkey After Filing Complaint Against Syrian President
Turkish authorities arrested Alevi cleric Aslan Uzun on March 20, a day after he filed a legal complaint against Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa.
Uzun, who leads a local Alevi house of worship, was detained at Kucukcekmece Courthouse in Istanbul while accusing al-Sharaa of genocide, torture, and crimes against humanity against Syria's Alawite community. He was charged with "inciting hatred and enmity," and a court ordered his arrest the following day.
FOREIGN POLICY
President Erdogan to visit the US in April
At a party meeting on March 17, President Erdogan shared details of his recent phone call with US President Donald Trump.
According to the pro-government newspaper Yeni Safak, Erdogan said he might visit the US in April after Eid al-Adha. He also noted that Trump said he could visit Turkey shortly after his visit to the US.
Trump Weighs Lifting Sanctions, Resuming Fighter Jet Sales to Turkey
Former President Donald Trump is considering lifting sanctions on Turkey and resuming the sale of fighter jets after a recent conversation with President Erdogan, Fox News reported.
Trump has shown interest in finalizing the sale of F-16 jets to Turkey and is open to selling F-35s if both sides reach an agreement that turns off Turkey's Russian S-400 defense system, two sources told. Possible solutions include partially dismantling the system or relocating it to a U.S.-controlled base in Turkey.
Trump's team has requested legal and technical analysis on proceeding without violating Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) regulations, according to a source familiar with the matter.
Somali President Fires Defence Minister After US Pressure
Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud dismissed Defence Minister Abuldkadir Mohamed Nur on March 16, reportedly following pressure from the US military, Middle East Eye reported.
Sources told MEE that Nur's efforts to strengthen Somalia's military, energy, and aerospace ties with Turkey worried Washington, which has closer relations with the UAE in the region.
A Somali official said US military officers repeatedly pushed Mohamud to remove Nur, citing concerns over his lack of coordination with American forces. The official also noted that Washington was uneasy about Turkey's plans to build a spaceport in Somalia, fearing it could be used for long-range missile tests.
Foreign Minister Fidan Meets with Hamas Delegation
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with a Hamas delegation led by Political Bureau member Khalil al-Hayye. Diplomatic sources confirmed the meeting but did not share details about the talks.
Armed Attack on Iraqi Consulate in Istanbul Linked to Criminal Group
On the night of March 21, two suspects on a motorcycle opened fire on the Iraqi Consulate General in Şişli's Esentepe neighborhood with long-barreled weapons. The attackers fled the scene immediately after the incident, but no one was injured.
According to Sozcu newspaper, the attack was reportedly carried out by the Daltonlar criminal organization. It is believed to be a retaliatory act for the recent capture of gang leader Ahmet Mustafa Timo by Turkish Intelligence (MIT) in Iraq.
Gang member Baran Yıkılmaz posted on social media, threatening, "The Iraqi government and security units who sold our brother to MIT for money should know that no one will be able to pour water on this fire anymore. Everyone will learn what we've sacrificed for each other."
Armenia Opens Border with Turkey for Humanitarian Aid to Syria
On March 20, the Armenian government announced that the Margara-Alican border gate with Turkey would be open for 10 days to allow the transportation of humanitarian aid to Syria. The border will be open from March 21 to March 31.
On March 21, Armenian media shared a video showing that the land border with Turkey had been temporarily opened to facilitate the transportation of Armenian humanitarian aid to Syria.
Greece Extends Special Visa Scheme for Turkish Tourists
Greece has extended a special visa scheme allowing Turkish nationals to visit 12 Aegean islands for up to a week, diplomatic sources told Reuters.
Following approval from the European Commission, the program will run until April 2026. Initially covering 10 islands, the scheme has been expanded to include Patmos and Samothrace. The European Commission welcomed the scheme's successful implementation over the past year, the sources said.
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