ANALYSIS
Report: "Turkey's Growing Role In Global Cocaine Trafficking" By Dr. Imdat Oner, Halil Cavus, Omer Guler And Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute For Diplomacy And Economy
The escalating demand and price for cocaine in European markets have created a lucrative incentive for drug traffickers. Simultaneously, Turkey's increase in organized crime groups, the country’s strategic geographic location and evolving political landscape provide ideal conditions for smuggling operations and have made the country increasingly attractive to Latin American cartels.
The evidence presented suggests that the actors in Turkey actively facilitates the flow of cocaine to Europe, rather than providing a passive transit point. The noted rise in cocaine seizures is not necessarily indicative of more effective law enforcement; rather, it highlights the sheer volume of cocaine transit through Turkey. The simultaneous rise in drug treatment requests for cocaine use in Turkey over the past decade suggests that the country itself has become an emerging market for cocaine.
The findings suggest that cocaine trafficking through Turkey has become a multibillion-dollar business that encompasses several countries and international organized crime groups. The scale of this illicit trade underscores the immense profits at stake and highlights the urgent need for effective measures to counteract the threat.
"Erdogan still maintains close ties with Muslim Brotherhood despite rapprochement with Sisi" by Levent Kenez, Nordic Monitor
Following Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Ankara on September 4, a new chapter began in the once-strained relations between Turkey and Egypt. As Erdogan curtails or limits the activities of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is critical of Sisi, he continues in Turkey to extend support to groups linked to the Brotherhood abroad. This delicate balancing act highlights Turkey’s attempt to improve relations with Egypt while maintaining its ideological and political connections to the broader Muslim Brotherhood movement.
Most recently, on September 12, a delegation from Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) visited Oussama Jammal, secretary-general of the US Council of Muslim Organizations (USCMO) and a prominent figure associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, during a visit to the United States.
Erdogan also maintains close ties with the International Union of Muslim Scholars (IUMS), an organization affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. He frequently meets with IUMS delegations in Ankara and encourages strong relations between the IUMS and Turkey’s Religious Affairs Directorate (Diyanet). The IUMS, designated as a terrorist organization by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain in 2018, enjoys political protection, diplomatic support and financial aid from Turkey as well as Qatar."
"What to make of Turkey’s ambitious naval buildup" by Barin Kayaoglu, Al-Monitor
Turkey aims to become one of the most powerful navies in the global arena as it plans to put more than 40 new submarines and surface combatants into service by the late 2030s. Taken together with the total of 25 or so surface vessels that will join the fleet between now and the late 2030s under the national warship project, known as MILGEM, as well as the rapidly expanding inventory of unmanned naval and aerial drones, the Turkish navy hopes to become the mainstay of Turkey’s regional and global geopolitical vision.
Unlike conventional diesel-electric engines, which need to surface frequently to recharge their batteries, air-independent propulsion submarines can stay underwater for a long time, thus decreasing the risk of detection. Kurtdarcan argues that submarines along with drones must constitute the centerpiece of Turkey’s “Blue Homeland” doctrine.
Kozan Selcuk Erkan, a naval engineer, defense analyst and writer for the website Defence Turk, thinks drones offer a unique advantage over both surface combatants and submarines with submarines proving too expensive to play the leading role in Turkish naval plans and grand strategy.
He also pointed to naval drones’ expendability, low cost and manufacturing time compared to MILGEM platforms such as the Ada-class stealth corvettes, which take as much as four years and hundreds of millions of dollars to produce.
POLITICS
Islamist Party Leader Calls for Annulment of Constitutional Article
During a TV program, the leader of the Islamist Free Cause Party (HUDA-PAR), the political wing of Kurdish Hizbullah and an ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, called for the annulment of Article 4 of the Turkish Constitution. This article prohibits any amendments or proposals to change the first three articles of the Constitution.
Yapicioglu, the party leader, stated that his party opposes the existence of “irrevocable provisions” in the Constitution, arguing that they restrict the will of future generations. He suggested that the first three articles be open to discussion and amended if needed.
His comments drew widespread criticism from both the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), an ally of the ruling party, and opposition parties, as they viewed it as an attack on the foundation of the Turkish Republic.
On September 18, speaking at a ceremony in Ankara, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated, "We have no debate on our side concerning the first four articles of the Constitution. The People's Alliance, in particular, has no issues with these articles."
DEVA and YRP Leaders Discuss Future Collaboration
On September 17, Ali Babacan, Chairman of the Democracy and Progress (DEVA) Party, met with Fatih Erbakan, Chairman of the New Welfare Party (YRP). After their closed-door meeting, Babacan and Erbakan held a joint press conference, announcing their intention to strengthen dialogue and cooperation between their parties.
Babacan also provided an update on the ongoing merger talks with the Future Party, stating, "We view the merger process positively. As it is still in progress, we can't provide any further details now."
Mayor Yavas Denies Rumors of Leaving CHP
The daily Milliyet columnist Zafer Sahin claimed on September 17 that Ankara Metropolitan Mayor Mansur Yavas plans to leave the CHP and run for president in the 2028 elections.
In response, Yavas dismissed these claims during a TV interview, saying, "I don't have time to deal with slander, conspiracy, and lies," and denied any intention of leaving the party.
Former AK Party MP Samil Tayyar: New Constitution is Not a Public Priority
While the AK Party occasionally raised the issue of a "new constitution" following their defeat in the March 31 election, former AKP MP Samil Tayyar expressed his opposition in a post on September 19 on his X account.
Tayyar said, "The demand for a new constitution doesn’t even make the top 20 on the public’s agenda." He added, "We haven’t encountered anyone asking for a new constitution anywhere we’ve visited. In short, people are asking, 'What is the Constitution blocking?' I share the same view."
ECONOMY
Budget Deficit Hits Record Despite Austerity Measures
Turkey’s budget deficit hit a record 1.97 trillion lira yearly (around $58 billion) in August, according to the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, despite calls for austerity. This is a significant increase compared to the surplus seen during the same period last year, as reported by the daily BirGun.
In August, Turkey's budget revenues totaled 690.72 billion lira, while expenditures amounted to 820.31 billion lira, resulting in a deficit of 129.6 billion lira for the month. Over the January-August period, the total budget deficit reached 973.6 billion lira.
Critics blame government spending, secret allowances (used by the presidency with little transparency), and the leasing of vehicles and planes by officials for the growing deficit. In August alone, aircraft leasing costs reached 1.2 billion lira (roughly $44 million).
The report also noted that, despite austerity measures, funds for budget items were exhausted before the year’s end.
Botas Signs 10-Year LNG Supply Deal with TotalEnergies
State energy company Botas signed a 10-year agreement with France's TotalEnergies, marking its fourth long-term import deal with private firms this year. The agreement outlines the delivery of 1.1 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) annually, starting in 2027.
With this deal, along with pipeline imports and earlier LNG agreements with Oman, ExxonMobil, and Shell, Turkey will have a surplus of 25 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas, above the country’s annual consumption of 50 bcm, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said who was in Houston to sign the deal on the sidelines of the GasTech conference. "We can supply European markets, particularly those in southeast Europe that need gas," he added.
Central Bank Holds Interest Rate Steady for Sixth Consecutive Month
On September 19, Turkey's central bank decided to keep its key interest rate unchanged for the sixth month in a row. The monetary policy committee announced that the policy rate would remain at 50 percent but emphasized that it would closely monitor inflation risks.
The committee also said it would continue its tight monetary policy until there is a significant and lasting reduction in monthly inflation and annual inflation aligns with expectations.
Bloomberg: Turkey’s Central Bank May Discuss Interest Rate Cuts in November
Turkey’s central bank is likely to discuss interest-rate cuts at its November meeting, but there is no set path for monetary policy, as decisions will depend on economic data leading up to the meeting, according to a source who spoke to Bloomberg.
The bank will primarily focus on inflation, which officials expect to gradually decrease to 38% by the end of the year, down from 52% in August, the source said.
Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan is scheduled to provide updated inflation projections on November 8, when the bank releases its final inflation report for the year.
Turkey’s Central Bank Reserves Rise by $6.79 Billion, Reaching $153.55 Billion
The Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB) released weekly money and banking statistics.
Gross foreign exchange reserves rose by $5.587 billion, reaching $92.155 billion. On September 6, these reserves stood at $86.568 billion.
Gold reserves increased by $1.202 billion, from $60.193 billion to $61.395 billion.
The TCMB's total reserves grew by $6.789 billion during the week of September 13, reaching $153.550 billion.
1 Million Turks Have Migrated to Western Countries Over the Past Five Years
Amid increasingly difficult living conditions in Turkey, around 1 million Turks have legally or illegally migrated to Western countries over the past five years.
The trend became more noticeable in 2022 and 2023, during periods of high inflation, with a sharp rise in the number of Turks seeking asylum in Germany. In 2022, 25,054 Turks applied for asylum in Germany, and by 2023, that number surged to 62,624, making Turks the second-largest group seeking asylum after Syrians.
In the first eight months of 2024, 21,590 Turks applied for asylum in Germany, bringing the total number of Turkish asylum seekers over the past five years to 132,897.
Additionally, about 130,000 Turks have legally migrated to Germany in the last two years. In the last five years, including other EU countries, Switzerland, the USA, and Canada, nearly 1 million Turks have migrated to Western countries.
Life Expectancy in Turkey Decreases Slightly
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) published new data on life expectancy for 2021-2023 on September 18. The report shows that life expectancy at birth, which indicates how many years a newborn is expected to live based on current mortality risks, decreased to 77.3 years from 77.5 years in the previous period (2020-2022).
For males, life expectancy at birth dropped slightly from 74.8 years in 2020-2022 to 74.7 years in 2021-2023. For females, it decreased from 80.3 years to 80 years during the same timeframe. On average, females live 5.3 years longer than males.
HUMAN RIGHTS
UN Report Accuses Turkey of Human Rights Violations in Northern Syria
The United Nations' Independent International Commission of Inquiry on Syria has released a report accusing Turkey of human rights violations in northern Syria between January and June 2024.
The report, presented at the 57th session of the Human Rights Council, outlines Turkey's direct involvement in airstrikes, detention abuses, and other violations in areas it controls.
According to the findings, Turkish forces and allied Syrian National Army (SNA) factions are responsible for arbitrary detention, torture, sexual violence, and attacks on civilians that may constitute war crimes.
Turkey to Trial 14 High School Students for Alleged Links to Gulen Movement
Turkey is set to trial 14 high school students for alleged membership to the Gulen movement. The authorities cite ordinary activities like meeting at shopping malls, going to the movies, and bowling as evidence against them.
The trial will begin on September 23 at Istanbul’s 24th High Criminal Court and is expected to last five days. In total, 41 defendants are involved in the case, known as the “High School Girls Case,” which originates from a police operation on May 7 targeting individuals allegedly linked to the Gülen movement.
28,000 Turkish Citizens Apply for Asylum in First Half of 2024
Around 28,000 Turkish citizens applied for asylum in the EU, Switzerland, and Norway in the first half of 2024, according to the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA).
In its "Latest Asylum Trends – Mid-Year Review 2024" report, released on September 16, the EUAA noted that 513,000 asylum applications were filed in total during this period. Turkish citizens accounted for 28,224 applications, making them the fifth-largest group by nationality. Germany saw the highest number of Turkish applicants, with 16,088 submissions.
The report also highlighted a decline in the approval rate for Turkish asylum applications. While 53% were approved in 2019, the approval rate fell to 18% in the first half of 2024.
FOREIGN POLICY
US Diplomat John Bass Meets with Turkish Officials in Ankara
US Undersecretary of State for Administrative Affairs and Acting Undersecretary for Political Affairs John Bass visited Ankara on September 17 after his trip to Pakistan. During his visit, Bass met with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Deputy Minister Nuh Yilmaz, and National Defense Minister Yasar Guler.
According to the Foreign Ministry, the discussions between Yilmaz and Bass focused on developments in Syria. Diplomatic sources reported that the meeting covered the security, political, economic, and humanitarian situation in the country.
Turkey Accuses Israel of Expanding Gaza Conflict to Lebanon
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan accused Israel of escalating the Gaza conflict into Lebanon following a series of deadly explosions in Hezbollah-controlled areas. The blasts, which occurred over two days, have claimed several lives, including children.
On September 18, Turkish President Erdogan called Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati to offer his condolences for the tragic events.
Fidan said on September 19, "We see Israel increasing its attacks on Lebanon step by step." He warned that while the current focus is on Lebanon, there is a broader risk of the conflict spreading to Jordan, Egypt, and the entire region.
Fidan also revealed that the establishment of an independent cybersecurity organization was on the agenda of the recent National Security Council meeting following Israel's attacks in Lebanon. Fidan stated that the project would be implemented very soon.
Swedish Ministers' Flight to Turkey Returns Due to Technical Issue
A plane carrying Sweden's Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard and Justice Minister Gunnar Strommer returned to Stockholm after encountering a technical problem en route to Turkey. The ministers were scheduled for their first meeting with Turkish officials to discuss a security pact regarding Turkey's approval of Sweden's NATO membership bid.
The crew and passengers were not in immediate danger, and a new date for the meeting would be arranged, Sweden's foreign ministry said on September 18.
Turkish Court Sentences 37 for Spying for Mossad
On September 18, a Turkish court sentenced 37 defendants on charges of spying for Israeli intelligence agency Mossad. The trial, held at the Istanbul 28th High Criminal Court, involved 56 defendants.
Two defendants, who were in pretrial detention, received prison sentences of eight years and four months for obtaining secret information for espionage. The remaining 35 were sentenced to six years and eight months each.
The court acquitted the remaining 19 defendants of all charges.
Turkey Plans Separate Talks with Somalia and Ethiopia to Resolve Dispute
On September 19, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced that Turkey plans to hold separate meetings with Somalia and Ethiopia to help resolve their dispute over Ethiopia's agreement to lease a section of coastline from Somaliland.
Fidan explained that instead of arranging direct talks, where both sides would meet with Turkey separately, the goal is to engage in one-on-one discussions to help align their positions. Once common ground is reached, the parties will be brought together for talks, he added.
Turkey has already hosted two rounds of discussions between Somalia and Ethiopia to restore relations, though a third round, scheduled for September 17 in Ankara, was canceled.
Erdogan Seeks Meeting with Kamala Harris in New York Ahead of UNGA
Turkish President Erdogan aims to meet with Kamala Harris in New York ahead of the UN General Assembly next week, Bloomberg reported on September 20.
According to sources familiar with the situation, Erdogan is waiting for a response from Harris, who is expected to be in New York for a fundraising event on September 22. Erdogan is also open to meeting with vice-presidential nominee Tim Walz, Bloomberg claimed.
Erdogan Awaits Response from Assad for Meeting
President Erdogan held a press conference on September 21 before departing for the US to attend the 79th United Nations General Assembly.
When asked about the steps toward normalization with Syria, Erdogan recalled his previous request for a meeting with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. He said, "We have shown our willingness to meet with Bashar al-Assad to normalize relations between Turkey and Syria. Now, we are waiting for a response from the other side."
Pro-Turkish forces detained 18 people in the Afrin region of northern Syria following protests against efforts to normalize relations with Damascus, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR).
The detentions occurred at the Kafr Jannah checkpoint in the Aleppo countryside as protesters were heading home after participating in a demonstration earlier that day, SOHR reported.
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