ANALYSIS
"Shifting Geopolitics of Turkey-Israel Relations After Assad" by Hasim Tekines, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
The fall of the Assad regime marks a critical juncture in regional geopolitics, fundamentally altering the dynamics between Turkey and Israel.
Turkey and Israel now hold conflicting visions for Syria’s future. Israeli leaders appear to favor a fragmented Syria with buffer zones to provide security against HTS and other actors. In contrast, Turkey opposes any fragmentation of Syria, fearing it could lead to the establishment of a Kurdish state under PKK influence. If HTS attempts to challenge Israeli-held territories or if Israel acts to weaken HTS, tensions could escalate. Unlike Israel’s war with Hamas and Hezbollah, Turkey is likely to be more involved in a conflict between Israel and HTS.
Meanwhile, Israel no longer depends on Turkey as it once did. The normalization of Israeli relations with Arab states, including Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, and potentially Saudi Arabia, has broadened its regional alliances. These Arab nations, wary of an Islamist victory in Syria and Turkey’s growing regional influence, might remain neutral or even side with Israel in any renewed tension with Ankara and Damascus.
"Netanyahu and Erdoğan compete to be the Middle East’s strongman" by Gideon Rachman, Financial Times
The rival ambitions of Erdoğan and Netanyahu could easily clash in Syria. It risks becoming a battleground for competing regional powers because Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries also have interests at stake there.
The Saudis and the Gulf states probably feel more directly threatened by Turkey’s Islamist alliances than by Israel’s territorial ambitions. But Riyadh knows that Israel’s assault on Gaza has appalled much of the Arab world. Moving closer to Netanyahu to block Erdoğan would be controversial, particularly if the Israelis are simultaneously burying any prospect for a two-state solution with the Palestinians.
Israel and Turkey have powerful militaries. But the Saudis, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have the financial firepower. Whatever course Riyadh decides to take could shape the Middle East even more fundamentally than the actions of Erdoğan and Netanyahu.
"The balance of power is shifting in the Middle East – and it is Turkey’s ‘full moon’ on the rise" by Hassan Hassan, The Guardian
Turkey’s rise complicates regional power dynamics, particularly for Saudi Arabia and its allies. Unlike Iran, whose sectarian Shia identity made it a clear rival, Turkey’s Sunni credentials create a more subtle and pervasive challenge. Riyadh has long positioned itself as the leader of the Sunni Muslim world, countering Iran’s Shia influence, but Turkey’s ascendancy disrupts this narrative. Ankara’s Islamist-leaning policies resonate with a broad swath of Sunni Muslims and political Islamists, offering an alternative to the Gulf monarchies.
In the region, Turkey’s dominance is a source of deep worry. For Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel, the shift in Damascus is a gamechanger that could pit them against a regional rival. For western policymakers, views of Ankara’s growing assertiveness range from concerns over its Islamist ties to recognition of its centrality to Middle Eastern politics. This plays into Ankara’s hands, as it is a marked difference to Iran’s power projection that was unanimously challenged in the west and the region.
In the years to come, the region’s power struggles will no longer revolve around the shadow of Iran’s ambitions but around the scope of Turkey’s. For rivals and allies alike, the question will no longer be whether Turkey will dominate the region, but how.
"Turkey Has a Wish List in Syria. It Should Tread Lightly" by Alper Coskun, The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Whether Ankara likes it or not, it carries the burden of proof of its benign intentions in Syria. Turkish officials will have to tread lightly, refrain from gloating, and carefully nurture confidence abroad. Their rhetoric and actions will be closely scrutinized by different audiences, requiring an acute sense of awareness. Politically motivated statements on the domestic scene may resonate differently abroad. For instance, Erdoğan’s recent assertion that Turkey’s horizon cannot be constrained by its existing borders may be galvanizing for his conservative constituency, but it will have very negative repercussions abroad and only serve to confirm deeply held suspicions about his true intentions. Unless such impulses can be restrained, the image of Turkey’s ascendancy in Syria will be seen as a threat by Arab nations and others, creating new anti-Turkish constellations and adding to the complex power struggle in the region.
Should things go wrong in Syria—or when there are governance shortcomings, which may be difficult to prevent—Turkey risks seeming guilty by association. So while Turkey is understandably upbeat by the recent turn of events and has a clear opportunity to advance its interests and expand its influence, it should also be aware of the existing pitfalls, some of which it needs to manage with care and others that will invariably remain beyond its control.
"'A new Putin': Turkey's Erdogan eyes power in Syria as Israel watches nervously" by Amir Bohbot, The Jerusalem Post
According to Western assessments, Erdogan is expected to defeat the Kurds in the coming days, as the Biden administration is not expected to intervene.
Turkey is also likely to seize control points that will create a buffer zone for itself.
According to sources in the IDF Northern Command, the rebels have begun operating in villages in the Syrian Golan Heights, aiming to take control of areas vacated by Assad regime forces and to challenge the IDF.
If Turkey decides to arm the rebel forces, it is unclear how Israel will respond and whether it will be able to thwart the transfer of American weapons.
"U.S. Fears Military Buildup by Turkey Signals Preparations for Incursion Into Syria" by Lara Seligman and Alexander Ward, The Wall Street Journal
Senior U.S. officials say Turkey and its militia allies are building up forces along the border with Syria, raising alarm that Ankara is preparing for a large-scale incursion into territory held by American-backed Syrian Kurds.
The forces include militia fighters and Turkish uniformed commandos and artillery in large numbers that are concentrated near Kobani, a Kurdish-majority city in Syria on the northern border with Turkey, the officials said. A Turkish cross-border operation could be imminent, one of the U.S. officials said.
We are focused on it and pressing for restraint,” another of the U.S. officials said.
Ilham Ahmed, an official in the Syrian Kurds’ civilian administration, told President-elect Donald Trump on Monday that a Turkish military operation appeared likely, urging him to press Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan not to send troops across the border.
Turkey’s goal is to “establish de facto control over our land before you take office, forcing you to engage with them as rulers of our territory,” Ahmed wrote to Trump in a letter viewed by The Wall Street Journal. “If Turkey proceeds with its invasion, the consequences will be catastrophic.”
"Turkey sends Syrian arsenal to Ukraine via Greece", Neostrategy
Following the collapse of the Syrian government on December 8, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made an unexpected diplomatic visit to Jordan and Turkey on December 11. The official purpose of the visit was to hold discussions on Syria's fragmented future. However, according to Arab and Israeli media, the purpose of his visit was not only that. A. Blinken wanted to know how quickly the two countries could organize the transfer of Assad’s arsenal to Ukraine.
The most important thing, however, is the involvement of Greece since the shortest – and only – way for the ammunition to reach Ukraine is by sea. That is: Latakia-Alexandroupolis and then by rail Bulgaria-Romania-Ukraine. As we will see below, this is an important bargaining chip for Ankara on the issue of the Kurds and its re-entry into the F-35 program.
The transfer of these vast stocks from Syria to Ukraine poses a huge challenge to NATO's logistics and supply system due to time and volume. Turkey, which controls Syrian paramilitary groups, plays a crucial role in the entire operation.
Ankara may facilitate the transfer in exchange for American incentives, such as ceasing support for the Syrian Kurds, generous financial aid, or even a return to the F-35 program.
Russia will likely try to block the arms transfer through diplomatic pressure on Turkey. However, the benefits for Turkey far outweigh the losses, as Ankara is no longer seen as a privileged ally for the Russians after supporting and coordinating the Syrian opposition forces to overthrow the Assad regime “in the blink of an eye.”
"Turkey’s energy hub ambitions have new momentum after Assad’s fall" by Karim Elgendy, Chatham House
Diplomatically, Ankara could leverage its support for Syrian rebels to negotiate favourable defence agreements with the new government in Damascus – potentially replicating similar agreements it has with Azerbaijan, Qatar, Somalia, and Libya. Such arrangements would significantly expand Turkey’s strategic depth in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Maritime boundary delimitation presents another crucial opportunity. A new Syrian government might be more amenable to recognizing Turkish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) claims in the Eastern Mediterranean, strengthening Ankara’s position in ongoing disputes with Greece and Cyprus.
The possibility for a new, stable Syrian state creates an opportunity for Turkey to capitalize on this potential. By creating a gas pipeline to the west of Syria and connecting to the existing Arab Gas Pipeline network (which links Syria, Jordan, and Egypt), Turkey could offer regional gas producers such as Israel and Egypt a more commercially viable route to European markets than current LNG alternatives.
Additionally, stability in Syria could allow the revival of the long-dormant pipeline project to connect Qatari natural gas fields with Turkey via Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria.
POLITICS
Ministry Imposes Financial Sanctions on CHP-Run Municipalities
On December 16, the Turkish Labor Ministry imposed sanctions on six municipalities led by the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) for unpaid Social Security Institution (SGK) premiums. Among those affected are major cities like Istanbul, Ankara, Adana, and Mersin. The sanctions include blocked bank accounts, impacting municipalities and their subsidiaries.
While some municipalities, including Istanbul, deny the reports, Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas confirmed that six municipal affiliates' accounts were blocked, but the municipality itself has no outstanding debts, Yavas claimed.
Ozel Criticizes Government's Approach in Syria, Calls for Action Against Citizens' Problems
Republican People's Party (CHP) Chairman and Socialist International Vice Chairman Ozgur Ozel joined the Socialist International Council Meeting in Morocco on December 22, the second day of his visit.
Ozel addressed recent criticisms from AKP President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, urging the government to focus on solving issues faced by retirees, civil servants, workers, shopkeepers, and farmers.
He criticized the government’s handling of the situation in Syria, pointing out that Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently claimed, "We did not plan or want this; others initiated it, and we only made recommendations after it began." Ozel emphasized that instead of seeking political gains in Syria, the government should prioritize resolving the economic challenges citizens face at home.
President Erdogan Repeats Call for "New Constitution"
President Erdogan once again called for a "new constitution," stating, "Managing change in a country like Turkey, which operates under a coup-era constitution from 42 years ago, is much more difficult."
Erdogan criticized the opposition for ignoring his calls and stressed the need for a democratic, comprehensive, and civilian-made constitution. "A new constitution is not a luxury for Turkey; it is a long overdue need," he said.
MHP Leader Bahceli Repeats Call for Talks with Ocalan
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) Chairman Devlet Bahceli once again called for talks with outlawed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan.
Bahceli stated, "The talks should lead to an announcement that terrorism has ended and the terrorist organization has been disbanded, in line with the goal of a common future."
He also criticized the CHP and urged the DEM Party to take strong steps to become a party for all of Turkey rather than being used for CHP's political exploitation.
ECONOMY
Central Bank Reserves Increase by $4.09 Billion
The Central Bank released its weekly money and banking statistics, showing an increase in reserves as of December 13. The Central Bank's gross foreign exchange reserves rose by $3.16 billion, reaching $98.18 billion, up from $95.01 billion on December 6.
During this period, gold reserves grew by $928 million, from $64.38 billion to $65.31 billion.
As a result, the total reserves of the Central Bank increased by $4.09 billion, rising from $159.39 billion to $163.48 billion compared to the previous week.
Budget Deficit Reaches 1.28 Trillion Liras in January-November Period
The Ministry of Treasury and Finance announced the budget results for November. Budget revenues rose by 25.8 percent compared to the same month last year, reaching 939.46 billion liras, while budget expenditures grew by 42.5 percent to 956.1 billion liras.
From January to November, revenues increased by 67.2 percent, totalling 7.79 trillion liras, while expenditures rose by 81.8 percent, reaching 9.07 trillion liras.
As a result, the central government budget recorded a deficit of 16.65 billion liras in November and 1.28 trillion liras in January-November.
Retirees' Share in GDP Drops Over 15 Years
From 2008 to 2021, payments to retirees averaged 5.8% of Turkey’s GDP. This rate fell to 3.78% in 2022, rising slightly to 4.43% with the Retirement Age (EYT) program. Over the last 15 years, the share of payments dropped by 1.4 percentage points. Currently, 12.4 million retirees in Turkey are struggling below the hunger and poverty lines.
TOBB Reports Decrease in New Companies and Increase in Closures for November
The Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB) released statistics on company openings and closures for November. From January to November this year, the number of new companies dropped by 11.4 percent compared to the same period last year, totalling 102,804. Company closures increased by 19.7 percent during the same period, reaching 23,861.
In November, the number of new companies decreased by 6.6 percent compared to October, with 10,092 established. The number of company closures also rose in November, increasing by 7.8 percent from October, reaching 2,631 closures.
Pegasus Airlines Orders 200 Boeing 737 MAX Jets
Boeing and Pegasus Airlines announced on December 19 that Turkey’s leading low-cost carrier would modernize its fleet with an order for up to 200 737 MAX airplanes. The purchase includes a firm order for 100 737-10 jets and options for 100 more, totalling a $36 billion investment. The order will bring the total for 737 MAX variants to over 1,200 jets.
Turkey Raises Tax Rates on Dividends and E-Commerce Transactions
A Presidential Decree published on December 22 increased the withholding tax rate on dividends from 10% to 15%. Additionally, a new decree imposes a 1% deduction on payments for goods and services sold via e-commerce. The dividend tax change is effective immediately, while the e-commerce tax will take effect on January 1, 2025.
Turkey Reduces Import Taxes on Goods from Northern Cyprus
On December 17, the Turkish government reduced import taxes on goods from the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC), lowering the rate from 60% to 30%, matching tariffs for EU imports.
The new tax applies to goods valued up to €1,500 ($1,574), including traveller items, postal deliveries, and cargo shipments. The decision, published in the Official Gazette, came into effect immediately.
CHP Deputy Chairman Criticizes Presidential Complex's 2024 Expenses
CHP Deputy Chairman Burhanettin Bulut criticized the Presidential Complex's expenses for 2024. He revealed on his social media account that the Palace spent 11 billion 352 million 827 thousand TL in the first 11 months of 2024.
Bulut noted that the Palace’s daily expenses amount to 34 million 402 thousand TL, equivalent to the monthly salaries of 2,023 minimum wage earners and 2,752 retirees.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Two Kurdish Journalists Killed in Northern Syria, Protesters Detained in Istanbul
On December 19, Kurdish journalists Nazim Dastan and Cihan Bilgin were killed in northern Syria after their vehicle was reportedly targeted by a Turkish drone near the Tishrin Dam. The two were covering clashes between Turkish-backed forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
On December 20, Gulistan Kilic Kocyigit, co-chair of the DEM Party, condemned the killing in a speech in the Turkish parliament.
On December 21, 30 people, including 20 journalists, were detained during a protest in Istanbul over the killings.
ECtHR Rules Against Turkey Over Gulen-Linked 450 Detentions
The European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) ruled against Turkey in two cases involving the arrest and pretrial detention of 450 people accused of links to the Gulen movement.
The court found insufficient grounds for their detention and ordered Turkey to pay each applicant €3,000 in damages. The rulings, announced on December 17, addressed the applications of 213 people in the "Tas case" and 237 in the "Deniz case."
Police Detains Dozens in Nationwide Operations Targeting Gulen Movement
On December 17, Turkish police detained 29 people in operations spanning seven provinces. The detainees included former military officers dismissed after the 2016 coup attempt and public servants from various agencies.
On December 18, Turkey’s Interior Minister announced on his social media that 41 people were detained in operations targeting the Gulen movement across nine provinces.
Journalist Sevinc Ozarslan noted that the government has started blurring detainees' images in media releases, allegedly to prevent backlash from conservative voters. Ozarslan claimed this decision was due to the inclusion of elderly individuals, the sick, pregnant women, and women wearing headscarves among those detained.
On December 19, police in Izmir detained an additional 15 people as part of the ongoing operations.
FOREIGN POLICY
President Erdogan Plans Visit to Damascus to Strengthen Syria Relations
Burhan Koroglu, the Temporary Charge d'affaires of the Turkish Embassy in Damascus, announced that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan plans to visit Damascus.
Koroglu stated, "Following our Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, President Erdogan is also planning to visit Damascus." He added that the visit would mark an important step in relations with Syria.
Erdogan and Bahceli Deliver Strong Messages on the Conquest of Jerusalem
President Erdogan, speaking to a crowd of young people in Mardin who chanted "Mr. President, take us to Jerusalem," responded by saying, "Patience brings victory."
MHP leader Bahceli called for an end to Israel's expansionism, describing it as "pirate and bandit-like." He stated, "If Israel does not withdraw from the Golan Heights, a comprehensive sanctions and strategy for struggle must be developed."
Bahçeli also made a bold statement, saying, "History tells us that Jerusalem's first stop is Damascus. If Damascus is safe, Jerusalem will also be safe. If Damascus is conquered, the conquest of Jerusalem is also close."
SDF Proposes Demilitarized Zone as US-Brokered Ceasefire Efforts Continue
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced on December 16 that US-brokered mediation efforts to establish a lasting ceasefire with Turkey-backed groups in the northern cities of Manbij and Kobani had failed.
Farhad Shami, head of the SDF’s media center, attributed the breakdown to "Turkey’s handling of the mediation process and its refusal to accept crucial terms."
On December 17, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi announced readiness to propose a demilitarized zone in Kobani, with security forces redeployed under U.S. supervision.
Meanwhile, the U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Turkey and the SDF in Manbij has been extended until the week's end. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller expressed the U.S. desire for a prolonged ceasefire and emphasized the importance of avoiding actions that exploit instability at the expense of Syria’s broader national interests.
However, on December 19, a Turkish defence ministry official denied U.S. claims of a ceasefire between Turkey and the SDF in northern Syria. Syrian National Army (SNA) would "liberate" areas controlled by the PKK/YPG militia in the region, the official said.
Kurdish fighters from across the Middle East who supported Syrian Kurdish forces will depart Syria if a comprehensive ceasefire with Turkey is achieved, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi told Reuters on December 19.
Abdi acknowledged their crucial role in combating ISIS and stated many have returned home over time. He confirmed for the first time that non-Syrian Kurdish fighters, including PKK members, joined the Syrian conflict.
President Erdogan emphasized the need to eliminate groups threatening Syria's stability, including ISIL and Kurdish factions. Speaking to journalists on December 20 while returning from the D-8 Summit held in Cairo, Erdogan stated, "Daesh, the PKK, and their affiliates must be eradicated." He also announced that Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will visit Damascus soon to help the country restructure.
On December 20, Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen and Republican Senator Lindsey Graham introduced the "Countering Turkish Aggression Act of 2024." The bipartisan bill aims to impose sanctions on Turkey, urging a ceasefire and supporting a demilitarized zone in northern Syria.
The SDF reported that five of its fighters were killed on December 21 during attacks by Turkish-backed forces in the northern Syrian city of Manbij.
Turkey's Foreign Minister Meets New Syrian Leader in Damascus
Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa in Damascus on December 22. The Foreign Ministry shared photos and videos of Fidan and Sharaa walking together with a delegation and posing for photographs.
After the meeting, Fidan held a joint press conference with Sharaa. Fidan stated that the PKK/YPG has no place in Syria, calling the group occupying Syrian territory and exploiting the country's natural resources. “PKK/YPG should disband,” he said.
Fidan also expressed Turkey's readiness to support Syria in the fight against ISIS and urged the international community to react to Israel's activities in Syrian territory.
In response, Sharaa stated, "We cannot accept any group having weapons in the areas under our control or the YPG's control."
Both Fidan and Sharaa called for the lifting of sanctions on Syria.
Erdogan Urges EU Support for Refugee Projects in Syria, CHP Leader Criticizes EU’s Approach
During a joint press conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Ankara on December 17, Turkish President Erdogan called for an inclusive administration in Syria and urged the EU to back new initiatives for refugee repatriation.
She praised Turkey’s efforts in managing the refugee crisis and announced €1 billion in additional funding for 2024 to aid refugees and host communities.
At the CHP Party Assembly meeting on December 17, party leader Ozgür Ozel criticized the recent meeting between Erdoğan and von der Leyen. He said Turkey is not a one-man regime and that agreements should involve all political parties in the parliament, not just Erdoğan and his allies.
HTS Leader Prioritizes Turkey in Syria's Reconstruction
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, known as Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, stated in an interview with Turkey’s Yeni Safak daily that Turkey will have priority in rebuilding Syria.
Jolani praised Turkey for offering refuge to millions of Syrians during the civil war, describing it as a gesture of unmatched kindness.
Turkey Considers Removing Syria’s New Leaders from Terror List
Turkey is considering removing Syria’s new leadership from its terrorism list without waiting for similar actions from other countries or the UN.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Al Jazeera that it is time for the international community to remove their name. He described Syria’s new administration as a legitimate partner and praised the HTS for distancing itself from groups like al-Qaeda and Daesh. Fidan also mentioned Turkey’s willingness to take independent steps on the matter.
Turkey Secures Exemption for Gas Payments via Gazprombank
Turkey announced that the U.S. had exempted it from sanctions on Russia’s Gazprombank, allowing Ankara to continue paying for gas imports. Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar told Bloomberg that after discussions with U.S. officials, Turkey secured permission to make payments through the bank.
Eurofighter Jets Arrive in Turkey for Inspection
Two Eurofighter jets from the UK's Royal Air Force landed at Mürted Air Base in Ankara on December 18 for inspection by Turkish authorities. Turkey is in talks to purchase Eurofighter aircraft from Germany.
Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler announced the aircraft’s arrival after participating in a military exercise in Qatar. On the same day, Guler hosted Maria Eagle, the UK’s defense procurement and industry minister.
Turkey and Spain Sign MoU for Cooperation on Advanced Jet Trainer Aircraft
On December 20, Turkey and Spain signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to collaborate on advanced jet trainer aircraft. Haluk Görgün, head of Turkey's Presidency of the Defense Industry (SSB), announced the agreement on X.
Spain plans to purchase 24 HURJET aircraft from Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) to replace its ageing fleet.
Turkey and Kosovo Sign Deal for Ammunition Factory
The Machinery and Chemical Industry (MKE) signed an agreement with Kosovo to build a modern ammunition factory, it announced on December 17. MKE highlighted that the project would bolster Kosovo's defence industry while also contributing to Turkey's defence industry exports.
Turkey to Build Rocket Launch Facility in Somalia
Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud announced that Turkey is constructing a facility in the country to launch rockets. Mohamud said the project would create jobs and revenue for Somalia, though he did not disclose its location.
"The project's significance, stating that hosting a Turkish satellite launchpad in Somalia is more important than the economic benefits it brings," Mohamud added.
Erdogan to Visit Ethiopia and Somalia in Early 2025
In a message on X, Turkish President Erdogan announced plans to visit Ethiopia and Somalia in the first two months of 2025. The visit follows Turkey's successful mediation efforts to ease tensions between the two countries.
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