ANALYSIS
"Turkey's Divergence from NATO: A Complex Balance" by Hasim Tekines, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
Turkish President Erdogan’s attendance to recent NATO Summit in Washington has not become the reiteration of Turkey’s commitment to the alliance. On the contrary, Turkey's position within NATO has become increasingly divergent, especially highlighted during the recent NATO summit in Washington. As NATO braces itself for stronger measures against China and Russia, Turkey, while signing the declaration, appears to chart its own course regarding these two major powers. Turkey (together with Hungary) has obviously different threat perceptions than the rest of the alliance.
Despite NATO's characterization of China and Russia as primary challenges, Turkey's stance differs significantly. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's attendance at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, where he expressed interest in membership and met with the Chinese leader, underscores Turkey's intention to develop closer ties with Beijing.
Regarding Russia, Turkey maintains a complex relationship marked by cooperation and conflict. While Ankara supports Ukraine by providing arms, Erdogan places significant blame on the West for the ongoing war, rather than on Russia.
Turkey's divergence from NATO is emblematic of its broader geopolitical strategy, clumsy balancing between East and West to maximize its national interests. While NATO remains a crucial pillar of Turkey's defense and diplomatic posture, Ankara's independent foreign policy approach, particularly towards China and Russia, continues to pose challenges for the alliance. At every critical juncture that NATO will face or important step the alliance will take, Western countries will likely need to offer new concessions to Erdogan to ensure the effective operation of NATO.
"What China’s $1bn investment in Turkey tells us about the two countries’ ties" by Ragip Soylu, Middle East Eye
Sources have told Middle East Eye that the deal wasn’t just an economic affair and political decisions were crucial in carrying it across the finishing line.
Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar has held close contact with the Chinese officials over a range of issues since he was appointed to his post last year, which includes the construction of a nuclear power plant and the extraction of rare earth materials.
According to the Turkish diplomatic sources, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s first official visit to Beijing in June also helped matters as it apparently went really well.
However Chinese officials did complain over Ankara’s decision in June to impose a 40 percent additional tax on Chinese electric cars. “We told them that the number was about to double this year and there is no way we could tolerate it,” one Turkish source said. “95 percent of our bilateral trade consists of Chinese exports.” In response, Chinese officials said that they were looking for ways to increase Turkish exports and maintain a sustainable trade relationship.
In that regard, BYD’s investment makes sense since the company will now avoid paying additional taxes and will be able to manufacture in Turkey – which in turn sells cars to Europe thanks to a customs agreement Ankara has with the EU.
"A rapprochement between Syria and Turkey is on the table. Here's what it might mean for the region" by Abby Sewell and Suzan Fraser, AP
Erdogan has said that he hopes to arrange a meeting with Assad soon for the first time since the countries broke off relations in 2011.
Russia appears to once again be promoting the talks, but this time around, Iraq — which shares a border with both Turkey and Syria — has also offered to mediate, as it previously did between regional arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Aron Lund, a fellow with the Century International think tank, said Iraq may have taken the initiative as a way to deflect pressure from Turkey to crack down on the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, a Kurdish separatist group that has waged an insurgency against Turkey since the 1980s and has bases in northern Iraq.
From the Syrian side, a return to relations with Turkey would be another step toward ending Assad’s political isolation in the region after more than a decade as a pariah due to his government’s brutal crackdown on protesters in 2011 and alleged war crimes afterward.
Analysts agreed that the talks are unlikely to bring about the full Turkish withdrawal from northwest Syria that Damascus has called for or any other major shift in conditions on the ground in the near term.
Although the two countries’ interests “actually overlap to a large degree,” Lund said, “there are also major disagreements” and “a lot of bad blood and bitterness” that could impede even “lower-level dealmaking.” Both Erdogan and Assad may also want to wait for the outcome of U.S. elections, which could determine the future American footprint in the region, before making a major deal, he said.
"Turkey after the 2024 elections: Transition to democracy or bumpy road to authoritarian consolidation?" by Seda Demiralp, Middle East Institute
The 2024 elections also created a critical opportunity for the CHP to further expand its voter base in the medium run, by making itself more visible and proving its ability to govern. At this point, state propaganda or asymmetrical media coverage will hardly be enough to “hide” the CHP from voters and limit awareness of its policies and performance. Now, through its control of municipalities across the country, the CHP has the chance to reach out to citizens on a daily basis, better understand their needs, and respond to their problems on site, all of which can increase its popularity to new levels.
Certainly, the restoration of Turkish politics will require much more than what the “softening-normalization” plan may offer in the short run. Key measures like an end to political prosecutions, reinstitution of horizontal checks on government, guarantees of individual rights, and changes to the election law will likely have to wait for a change in government or a further increase in opposition support.
In sum, Turkey’s prospects for political change rely more than anything on the CHP’s ability to preserve its newly won central position, respond to voters’ daily needs through its municipal administrations, and maintain a positive trend in its popular support. In the face of an opposition that continues to grow stronger and with a declining ability to provide populist redistributions to attract voters, Erdogan will have few options other than choosing moderation or facing an electoral loss in the next general elections.
POLITICS
Syrian President Agrees to Meet Turkish Opposition Leader, Party Official Says
A party official announced that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has agreed to a meeting with Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel in Damascus. CHP Deputy Chairman Burhanettin Bulut said during a TV program on July 10 that Ozel will travel to Damascus once the Syrian regime confirms the date and location of the meeting.
Al-Watan newspaper, closely linked to Syria's Damascus administration, published a report denying the statement. According to the newspaper, citing a Syrian official, the Damascus administration "has not engaged in any communication with the Turkish government or any political party, including ruling parties, from Turkey."
Criticism Over Erdogan's Lavish Travel to NATO Summit
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan received criticism for his recent trip to Washington, D.C., where he attended a NATO summit with a large entourage of five planes and stayed at one of the city’s most expensive hotels.
Turkish media reported that Erdogan’s delegation included a cargo plane transporting his official vehicle to the United States. Many viewed the luxurious accommodations and extensive convoy as excessive compared to the more modest travel arrangements of other world leaders at the same summit.
Turhan Comez, deputy chairman of the opposition Good Party group, pointed out that leaders from NATO’s newest members, Sweden and Finland, shared just one plane. Comez highlighted that Erdogan’s delegation used separate planes for himself, his staff and equipment, armored vehicles, and advance preparations.
Turkish Parliament to Debate Bill Stripping Citizenship of IDF Veterans
The Turkish Parliament agreed to discuss a bill proposed by the Islamist Free Cause Party (HUDA-PAR) that aims to revoke the citizenship of Turkish nationals who served in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), alleging their involvement in war crimes in Gaza.
Under the proposed legislation, these individuals would lose their Turkish citizenship and have their assets in Turkey confiscated. The bill specifies that those who fail to return to Turkey within three months of a summons would face citizenship revocation and property seizure.
The bill's approval for parliamentary debate follows backing from various political parties, including the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). However, the Republican People's Party (CHP) and the Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) raised concerns about the bill’s implications and the lack of concrete evidence.
ECONOMY
BYD Signs Agreement to Open Electric Vehicle Plant in Turkey
On July 8, China’s electric vehicle giant BYD signed an agreement to open a plant in Turkey. The deal was signed in Istanbul by BYD’s CEO Wang Chuanfu and Turkey’s Industry and Technology Minister, Fatih Kacir, during a ceremony attended by Turkish President Erdogan.
According to Turkey’s Industry and Technology Ministry, BYD will invest approximately $1 billion to open a production facility with an annual capacity of 150,000 vehicles and a research and development center.
TurkStat Faces Accusations of Underreporting Inflation Figures
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) faces allegations of underreporting Turkey’s inflation rates by using significantly lower prices for its basket of 100 goods and services than their actual market values, as reported by an Ekonomim news website columnist.
Alaattin Aktas, a columnist at Ekonomim, calculated the current prices of items in the consumer price index (CPI) using figures from April 2022, when TurkStat stopped individually releasing item prices. Aktas found that TurkStat's grouped price changes over the past 26 months do not reflect actual market prices.
Aktas obtained a list showing TurkStat's June inflation calculations, where, for example, the cost of a medical specialist's examination was considered to be TL 34, rent TL 5,845, and an egg TL 2.5—much lower than their actual market values.
Erhan Cetinkaya, head of TurkStat, defended their approach at a news conference in Ankara on July 9. Cetinkaya explained that TurkStat stopped detailing individual prices due to regional price variations and the logistical challenge of averaging prices for every item in their basket.
Finance Minister Simsek: Our aim is not to leave any area untaxed
At the TUSIAD High Advisory Board Meeting on July 11, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek reported significant improvements in the country's financial reserves. He stated that during his one-year tenure, the net reserve excluding swaps rose from minus $61 billion to plus $18 billion, marking an $80 billion improvement in the Central Bank's net reserves.
Simsek noted that the toughest period of inflation has passed. "Inflation will drop to around 60 percent next month and 50 percent the following month. We have a tolerance of up to 42 percent in inflation by the end of the year. We are currently at the beginning of the disinflation period," he said.
Simsek also mentioned that the government is currently reviewing all public expenditures and aiming to ensure fairness and efficiency in taxation. "We are working to ensure that no areas remain untaxed," Simsek said, emphasizing that the tax burden will not be placed on low-income individuals.
Simsek Says Current Account Deficit No Longer a Major Issue
On July 12, Simsek stated on his X account that the current account deficit is no longer a significant issue, and the annual current account deficit decreased to $25.2 billion in May, its lowest level since June 2022. Simsek also announced that foreign portfolio inflow reached $19.1 billion in the first five months of the year. Finally, Simsek said they expect the ratio of the current account deficit to national income to fall below 2.5 percent in the second quarter.
Erdogan Urges Swift Action on Pension Increases During NATO Visit
President Erdogan reportedly instructed officials to expedite efforts to increase low pensions during his visit to the USA for the NATO meeting. Economic analysts are now conducting impact assessments and considering various options.
If the package encompasses all retirees, officials highlight the intention to include a single-article amendment proposal in an omnibus bill for swift passage through Parliament. The proposal is scheduled to be presented at the cabinet meeting next week. Once finalized, Erdogan is expected to announce the details personally.
Turkey Likely to Miss Year-End Export Target, TIM Chairman Says
Turkey will likely miss its year-end export target of $267 billion due to high costs and low exchange rates, said Turkish Exporters Assembly (TIM) Chairman Mustafa Gultepe on July 11.
At TIM's mid-year event, Gultepe noted that Turkey had "largely lost" its export competitiveness, especially in labor-intensive sectors. He pointed out that the gap between high costs and the exchange rate had negatively impacted many areas.
"Costs have increased by over 100% in the past year, while the dollar exchange rate has only risen by 25%," Gultepe said. "This discrepancy makes it difficult to set prices in many sectors."
HUMAN RIGHTS
ECtHR Notifies Ankara of 1,000 Cases Related to Gulen Movement Convictions
On July 8, the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) notified Ankara of 1,000 applications regarding convictions for membership in the Gulen movement. The court earlier notified the government of 2,000 similar cases.
This development comes after the ECtHR's Grand Chamber decision in September 2023 on Yuksel Yalcinkaya v. Turkey. The decision stated that using ByLock, depositing money at a Gulen-linked bank, or being a member of a Gulen-affiliated association cannot be considered criminal evidence against Gulen movement members.
The court said its rulings on these cases will be issued at a later stage.
Meanwhile, six European rights organizations have petitioned the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe to oversee Turkey's compliance with the Yalcinkaya ruling soon, preferably during its September session.
Human rights organization Arrested Lawyers reported on July 10 that Turkey has asked for an extension until August 1 to submit its action plan for implementing the Yalcinkaya judgment.
Turkish Justice Minister Yılmaz Tunc disclosed on July 12 that authorities have investigated 705,172 individuals on terrorism or coup-related charges linked to the Gulen movement since the failed coup in July 2016.
Tunc also stated that currently, 13,251 people are in prison either awaiting trial or convicted in cases related to the Gulen movement and terrorism.
878 Deaths in Workplace Accidents in Turkey in First Half of Year
A report by the Health and Safety Labor Watch (ISIG) reveals that 878 people died in workplace accidents in Turkey in the first half of this year. The report also noted that 33 child workers were among the fatalities during this period.
Of the 33 minors who died, 19 were from Syria, six from Afghanistan, three from Iran, and two from Uzbekistan.
The report highlighted that 53 percent of the deaths occurred in three sectors: construction, agriculture, and transportation, totaling 468 worker deaths.
FOREIGN POLICY
Iraq Condemns Turkish Military Operations in Northern Iraq
Iraqi authorities denounced renewed Turkish military operations and incursions into northern Iraq, calling on Ankara to resolve security issues through diplomatic means.
Prime Minister Mohamed Shia al-Sudani chaired a National Security Council meeting on July 10, where officials discussed "Turkish forces' interventions and violations in border areas," according to a statement by General Yehia Rasool, military spokesman for the prime minister.
The council stated its opposition to "Turkish military incursions" into Iraqi territory and urged Turkey to engage diplomatically with the Iraqi government on security matters.
Erdogan Accuses U.S. of Complicity in Gaza Conflict
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan accused U.S. President Joe Biden and his administration of complicity in what he labeled as Israeli war crimes and violations of international law during the Gaza conflict. Erdogan called for sanctions against Israel, condemning its actions, including civilian deaths and attacks on hospitals and aid centers, as war crimes.
In an interview with Newsweek at the NATO summit in Washington, Erdogan criticized the U.S. administration for overlooking these violations and providing significant support to Israel, which he viewed as complicity in these acts.
Regarding Turkey's diplomatic relations with Russia, China and recent engagements with groups like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), Erdogan stated that Turkey pursues diplomacy aimed at mutual benefit. He affirmed Turkey's commitment as a steadfast NATO ally while asserting that this does not preclude positive relations with non-Western nations such as China and Russia.
Turkey Plans to Revise $23 Billion Defense Contract with US for F-16 Jets
Turkey is scaling down a planned $23 billion defense contract with the US to modernize its F-16 fighter jet fleet, aiming to save money amidst domestic spending cuts, Bloomberg reported.
According to sources familiar with the matter, Turkey intends to purchase fewer upgrade kits and munitions, opting instead to develop some parts locally through its growing military aviation industry.
During a press conference in Washington, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan avoided direct comment on plans to revise the contract, stating that discussions on spare parts are ongoing.
Erdogan Criticizes Germany for Delays in Nuclear Plant Turbines
Journalist Ragip Soylu reported on his X account that Erdogan stated Germany is delaying the delivery of turbines required for the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, which is being constructed in Turkey by the Russian state firm Rosatom. "It has greatly concerned us, and I raised this issue with German PM Scholz during our meeting," Erdogan remarked.
Erdogan also noted that Germany is not supplying the machinery required for Turkish frigates.
Erdogan Calls for NATO to Suspend Partnership with Israel, Talks F-16 Sale with Biden
Turkish President Erdogan declared on July 12 that NATO cannot maintain its partnership with the Israeli government until a lasting peace is achieved in Palestine, Reuters reported.
Erdogan stated during a press briefing at the NATO summit that Turkey will not approve any cooperation attempts with Israel within NATO until a comprehensive and sustainable peace is achieved in Palestine.
Additionally, Erdogan said Turkey is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to help resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
He also revealed that he has instructed Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to initiate talks with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to restore diplomatic relations with Syria.
Regarding the sale of F-16s to Turkey, Erdogan mentioned that he spoke with Mr. Biden, and the US President assured that he would resolve this issue within 3-4 weeks.
President Erdogan: "We want peace in Syria"
President Erdogan, speaking to journalists on his return flight from the USA after attending the NATO Summit, announced that he had tasked Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan to schedule a meeting with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Erdogan stated that Fidan will meet his counterparts to determine a road map for peace.
"We want peace in Syria and expect everyone who supports peace to back this historic call," Erdogan said.
On July 14, after meeting with Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud at the Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul, Fidan commented on the normalization process with Syria.
"The region now seeks peace and stability. The spirit of the times compels us to pursue peace and stability," Fidan said, emphasizing that Ankara will maintain its support for the Syrian opposition. "There is no question of abandoning them," he added.
EU Accelerates Plans to Strengthen Trade Ties with Turkey
The European Union is speeding up efforts to improve trade relations with Turkey next year, even as Ankara looks to rival multilateral groups due to frustration with Brussels, Bloomberg reported.
According to sources, the EU is developing a three-stage plan to increase high-level meetings, restart European Investment Bank operations in Turkey, and begin new talks to modernize the customs union.
EU officials hope to start customs union negotiations next year if progress continues. They emphasized that Ankara’s constructive engagement will be crucial for advancing bilateral cooperation, particularly concerning the Cyprus settlement talks.
Ankara and Paris Dispute Over French Schools in Turkey Resurfaces
The long-standing dispute between Ankara and Paris over the status of two French schools in Turkey has resurfaced, affecting hundreds of students at Pierre Loti in Istanbul and Charles de Gaulle in Ankara.
Reportedly, Turkey wants to open Turkish schools with the same status in France, place Ministry of National Education personnel in these schools, adapt their status to Turkish legislation and influence the curriculum.
In a letter to parents, the French embassy stated that, following a directive from Ankara, they will not be able to accept Turkish students at these schools starting this year, and current Turkish students will be transferred.
Minister of National Education Yusuf Tekin denied that students would be transferred, calling the allegations about curriculum changes and the introduction of compulsory religion lessons "a blatant lie, a very immoral distortion."
However, Le Figaro reported that Turkey wants the curriculum in French schools in Turkey to align more closely with the Turkish curriculum. While France was initially open to the idea, the newspaper claimed that Turkish officials began exerting pressure. It also stated that Turkey demanded 'reciprocity' and sought to open Turkish schools in France.
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