ANALYSIS
"Germany initiates Eurofighter technical talks with Turkey" by Ragip Soylu, Middle East Eye
Germany has given the green light for the start of technical negotiations with Turkey on a possible Eurofighter Typhoon jet sale to Ankara, people familiar with the issue told Middle East Eye, easing its opposition to the purchase. Ankara plans to purchase up to 40 Eurofighter Typhoon jets for a deal reportedly valued at $5.6bn.
Berlin’s decision came as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York last month.
Scholz will visit Ankara on 19 October, the German government has announced. Several sources suggested that the German prime minister sought a deal to expedite the rapid repatriation of some 15,000 Turkish citizens whose asylum applications had failed.
Airbus, a main partner in the Eurofighter consortium, told media that the fighter jets could arrive in Turkey sooner than expected.
A European official last week said that Germany had options to block the process down the road, even if it decided to begin negotiations for a sale with Ankara.
Sources familiar with the issue told MEE last week that Germany had decided to reconsider Ankara’s Eurofighter purchase request “with a fresh mind”, following regional tensions between Ukraine and Russia, and the Gaza war.
"Turkey’s geopolitical gambit: The cost of getting into BRICS" by Syed Nasir Hassan, Middle East Monitor
BRICS would significantly jeopardise Ankara’s current role in NATO and it could lose its membership in the transatlantic alliance, as Turkiye would slide from being an ally to a threat for NATO.
A shift from NATO would diminish the already bleak chances of its inclusion in the EU and push it into a tight spot on the issue of Kurdish separatism as the West may then support separatist groups.
Inclusion in BRICS may see Ankara reap some economic benefit but it cannot give it security assurances similar to those of NATO. Ankara would have to bear the significant strategic and geo-political cost of choosing a bloc whose sole purpose remains challenging the West through establishing close economic ties and de-dollarisation.
BRICS, like other Sino-Russian led forums, remains loosely controlled alliances with structural and reliability issues. It is quite possible that in pursuit of diversifying alliances, Ankara may end up diversifying rivalries. Even if Ankara doesn’t join the group, its efforts to do so may have tainted it as an unreliable ally.
POLITICS
Al-Monitor: Peace Talks Between Turkey and PKK Underway
Exploratory peace talks are reportedly taking place between Ankara and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), despite an ongoing crackdown on Kurdish political figures, according to a report by Al-Monitor citing unnamed sources close to the Turkish government.
Three sources familiar with the matter indicated that Turkish officials have been in talks with Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the PKK. Two sources claimed that Ocalan had been allowed to communicate directly with PKK leadership in the Qandil Mountains of Iraqi Kurdistan. According to one source, Ocalan urged the PKK to consider disarmament, but discussions became heated when the fate of their fighters was raised.
One source speculated that if the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) plays its cards right and President Erdogan offers concrete terms, the outcome could be different for the Kurds this time.
Al-Monitor’s report also suggests that Turkey's motivation for the talks may be to prevent Iran from reaching out to Kurdish fighters to destabilize Turkey during potential tensions with Israel.
Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus Faces Backlash Over Suggestion to Amend Article 3
During the opening ceremony of Gazi University's Academic Year on October 10, Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus addressed the ongoing debates about Turkey's Constitution. He specifically commented on the third article, part of the first four articles deemed unchangeable. Kurtulmus stated, “The phrase 'The Turkish State, with its territory and nation, is an indivisible entity' should be revised. The state doesn't have a nation, nor does it have a territory.”
Former CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu responded sharply, accusing Kurtulmus of "separatism" in a post on X.
CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel also strongly opposed Numan Kurtulmus's remarks about amending the first four articles of the Constitution. "We will break the hand of anyone who tries to change the first four articles!" Ozel said.
Presidential Chief Advisor Mehmet Ucum also criticized Kurtulmus' remarks, asserting that the third article is both semantically and constitutionally sound and that opening it for debate is unnecessary.
After facing backlash, Numan Kurtulmus stepped back and stated, "An attempt was made to create a false perception. There is no discussion about the first four articles of the Constitution."
Parliament Rejects Proposal to Investigate Recent Crime Rates
The CHP submitted a proposal to the General Assembly to investigate the recent rise in crime rates in Turkey. However, the proposal was rejected by the votes of the AK Party and MHP deputies.
A decision to form a commission to investigate child neglect and abuse was published in the Official Gazette on October 10. Additionally, a separate commission will be established to investigate violence against women. Both commissions, each comprised of 22 members, will have a three-month working period.
Ali Babacan Re-Elected as DEVA Party Chairman
The Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) held its 2nd Regular Grand Congress on October 13. Ali Babacan, who ran as the sole candidate, was re-elected as Chairman, securing all 556 valid votes.
Felicity Party Founding Chairman Passes Away at 94
Recai Kutan, the founding Chairman of the Felicity Party, passed away on October 7 at 94. He had been receiving treatment at a hospital in Ankara for about a week due to age-related health issues.
ECONOMY
Bank of America Raises Turkey's Year-End Inflation Forecast to 43.3%
The US investment bank Bank of America (BofA) has revised its year-end inflation expectations for Turkey, increasing the estimate from 42.2 percent to 43.3 percent. BofA reported that while the Turkish Central Bank is cautious regarding interest rates, it may still implement a rate cut in the last quarter of the year.
The bank noted that if there are no further upward surprises in the data, a 200-250 basis point cut is possible in December. However, if the data continues to exceed expectations, the first interest rate cut might be postponed to the first quarter of next year.
Turkey's Exports to Palestinian Territories Surge After Trade Ban on Israel
Turkey's exports to Palestinian territories skyrocketed sixfold in the first nine months of the year, reaching $571.2 million, according to data released on October 8. The surge followed Turkey's trade halt with Israel in response to the war in Gaza, leading to a 526% increase in exports since the ban was implemented.
Journalist Metin Cihan, known for exposing documents on trade with Israel, claimed that Turkey had been continuously supplying steel to the Israeli army for a year, with the destination officially listed as Palestine. Cihan pointed out that it is unlikely for Palestine to be purchasing 68 million dollars worth of steel from Turkey.
On October 7, Turkish opposition lawmaker Mustafa Yeneroglu submitted questions to Parliament regarding the significant rise in exports to Palestinian areas and the continued ship traffic from Turkey to Israel despite the trade ban.
China Launches Trade Dispute Against Turkey at WTO
China has officially initiated a trade dispute with Turkey at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over Turkey's 40% additional tariff on electric vehicle imports imposed in June. In a statement on October 8, China’s diplomatic mission criticized Turkey’s actions, calling the tariff "discriminatory and protectionist."
"We urge Turkey to follow WTO rules and immediately correct its measures," the statement said.
TurkStat Reports Rising Inequality in Income Distribution for 2023
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) released revised Income Distribution Statistics for 2023 on October 10. The Gini coefficient, which measures income distribution equality, increased by 0.005 points from the previous year to 0.420. A lower Gini coefficient indicates more equal income distribution, while a higher value suggests greater inequality.
Excluding all social transfers, the Gini coefficient is estimated at 0.488, and when excluding retirement and widow-orphan pensions, it is estimated at 0.431. This data shows a continuing deterioration in income distribution, marking the most negative situation since records began in 2006.
According to TurkStat, the share of the top quintile by the equivalised household disposable income was 48.7%, recording an increase of 0.7 points, whilst the share of the bottom quintile was 6.1%, with an increase of 0.1 points compared to the previous year.
Salary and wage income received the largest share of total income, increasing by 2.3 points to 48.5 percent. The service sector had the highest average annual income at 121,013 TL, while the agricultural sector had the lowest average annual income at 92,632 TL.
Turkey's Industrial Production Declines Sharply in August
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) released industrial production data for August on October 10, showing a monthly decrease of 1.6 percent and an annual decline of 5.3 percent.
In the sub-sectors, both the mining and quarrying sector index and the manufacturing industry sector index fell by 5.4% compared to August of the previous year.
Ruling Party Proposes $2 Billion Bill to Boost Defense Industry Funding
Turkey's ruling AK Party submitted a bill on October 11 aimed at raising $2 billion annually for the country's defense industry fund, according to Abdullah Guler, chair of the party's parliamentary group. Guler stated that the bill is expected to generate 70-80 billion lira ($2 billion-$2.3 billion) each year to support and develop the defense sector.
Under the proposal, companies and individuals would contribute additional funds based on their tax statements and credit card limits. There are currently 62 million cards with a limit of 100,000 Turkish lira. If the new regulation goes into effect, it would probably result in an annual transfer of 46.5 billion TL ($1.3 billion) from these credit cards to the country’s defense industry fund.
Turkish citizens would also be required to pay a contribution when buying or selling real estate or cars and for other transactions that need notary approval.
Additionally, the bill proposes a special consumption tax on non-military drones and watches priced over 5,000 lira. Motorcycles with engine capacities of less than 100 cc and 6KW would also incur a motored vehicle tax under the new legislation.
The Chairman of the Republican People's Party (CHP) Ozgur Ozel criticized the taxes proposed in the new government bill submitted to Parliament. Ozel pointed out that the bill surfaced following warnings that "Israel will attack Turkey." He stated, "The ruling party introduced the claim of 'Israel will attack' as a pretext to collect 70 billion liras in taxes from all of us."
Economist Mahfi Egilmez also expressed his disagreement with the government's proposed tax on loans and credit card limits. In a post on his X account, Egilmez said, "No tax can be collected from a credit card limit or loan. The loan is a debt. Taxes should be collected from the lender, not the borrower."
Turkey Imposes Anti-Dumping Duties on Steel Imports
Turkey announced in the Official Gazette on October 11 that it has imposed anti-dumping duties on certain steel imports from China, Russia, India, and Japan.
The duties, ranging from 6.10% to 43.31% of cost, insurance, and freight prices, aim to prevent unfair competition following appeals by Turkish steel producers.
Tariffs on Chinese imports range from 15% to 43%, while duties on imports from Russia, India, and Japan range from 6% to 9%. The duties are expected to affect around 4 million tons of product imports, valued at $2 to $2.2 billion.
IMF Urges Turkey to Maintain Tight Monetary Policy
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has called on Turkey to maintain a tight, data-driven monetary policy until inflation reaches its target.
Concluding its Article IV consultation, the IMF noted on October 12 that higher interest rates, implemented since June last year, have helped reduce economic imbalances and restored market confidence. The improved sentiment has led both foreign and domestic investors to shift towards lira-denominated assets, the IMF added.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Over 700 Children Live with Mothers in Turkish Prisons, Justice Minister Reports
Turkish Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc announced that 706 children are currently living with their mothers in Turkish prisons. The minister also revealed that 498 couples are imprisoned together on terrorism-related charges.
Human rights advocate and MP Ömer Faruk Gergerlioglu, from the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party, stated that the minister's revelations highlight the family tragedies occurring in Turkey’s prisons, calling the incarceration of 498 couples "horrifying."
Gergerlioglu urged the Family and Social Services Ministry to collaborate with the Justice Ministry to address the issue of children behind bars, emphasizing the need to find alternative solutions as these children are "enduring traumas that will affect them for the rest of their lives."
Eight Detained in Operation at DEM Party Provincial Building
In a morning operation at the Peoples' Equality and Democracy (DEM) Party's Igdir provincial building, police detained eight people, including co-chair Mehmet Selcuk.
The operation was part of an ongoing investigation into a bomb attack that occurred in Igdir on September 8, 2015, claiming the lives of 13 police officers. Police officers searched the DEM Party headquarters, which was temporarily closed to the public.
In response to the detentions, the DEM Party issued a statement condemning the government's actions. "You will not be able to make even one of our members kneel with detentions and arrests!" the statement said.
Ankara Prosecutors Order Detention of 39 in Gulen Movement Investigation
The Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor's Office issued detention orders for 39 individuals on October 8 as part of an investigation into the so-called secret structure within the Land and Air Forces Commands and the Gendarmerie General Command, linked to the Gulen Movement. The suspects were detained for allegedly communicating through "prepaid landlines."
Top Court Overturns Rule Denying Compensation for Reinstated Public Officials
The Constitutional Court of Turkey has issued a landmark ruling in favour of public officials who were dismissed from their positions by emergency decrees and subsequently reinstated. The court unanimously ruled that these individuals are entitled to compensation for the financial and emotional losses they suffered. The decision was published in the Official Gazette on October 7.
In its decision, the court emphasized the state's obligation to protect its citizens from arbitrary interventions affecting their material and spiritual well-being.
FOREIGN POLICY
US Imposes Sanctions on Yemeni National Living in Turkey
The US Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) imposed sanctions on Yemeni national Hamid Abdullah Hussein al Ahmar and nine of his businesses, including three located in Turkey, as part of efforts to disrupt a Hamas fundraising network. The sanctions were announced on October 7, marking the first anniversary of Hamas's attack on Israel.
The Treasury Department described al Ahmar as a prominent international supporter of Hamas. It also accused Hamas of using fake charities to generate funds under the guise of helping civilians in Gaza, exploiting the nonprofit sector.
Turkish Lawmakers Hold Closed-Door Session on Middle East Conflict Risks
On October 8, Turkey’s lawmakers held a closed-door session to discuss the spreading risks of the war in the Middle East. Foreign and defense ministers gave presentations, requested by the opposition, focusing on the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon and their potential to widen.
Last week, President Erdogan warned during the Parliament’s opening session, attended by foreign ambassadors and his cabinet, that "after Lebanon, Israel will set its sights on our homeland."
However, Ozgur Ozel, opposition leader, said he was unconvinced by the ministers’ presentations, stating, "They didn’t say anything we didn’t already know." Ozel claims that Erdogan raised the issue to divert attention from Turkey’s domestic problems like unemployment, inflation, and rising prices.
According to the Times of Israel, Israeli President Isaac Herzog responded to President Erdogan's statement, clarifying that Israel has never had any plans targeting Turkey. Herzog highlighted the long-standing relationship between the Turkish and Israeli people, stressing that Israel holds great respect for Turkey and believes that this respect is mutual.
German Interior Minister Faeser: Negotiations with Ankara to Repatriate Turkish Citizens Continue
German Interior Minister Faeser announced that discussions are ongoing with Ankara to repatriate Turkish citizens whose asylum applications have been denied, DW Turkish reported.
In response to questions from parliament members, Faeser explained that an agreement had been reached between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and that talks on implementation are currently taking place.
Faeser added, "We are continuing our efforts to organize the first flights to Turkey. I am confident that we will announce our success in this matter in the coming weeks."
German Companies Export Industrial Goods to Russia via Turkey Despite Sanctions
Despite international sanctions on Russia due to its war in Ukraine, German engineering companies still export industrial goods to Russia, mainly through Turkey, according to an investigative report by German broadcaster Südwestrundfunk (SWR).
In 2023, over 300 German-made machines capable of manufacturing vehicle parts or ammunition were sent to Russia, often via Turkey, the report revealed on October 10.
The SWR investigation found that products from German mechanical engineering companies significantly contribute to Russia's ability to produce its own military equipment. Most of these exports include large industrial machines and computer numerical control (CNC) machines, which are essential for cutting steel, bending sheet metal, and welding metal parts automatically.
Turkey to Provide Albania with Kamikaze Drones
Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama announced on October 10 that Turkey will give Albania a "considerable" number of kamikaze drones as a gift.
Speaking at a joint press conference during President Erdogan's one-day visit, Rama said the drones are a strong message from Turkey, symbolizing that "Albania is unhittable." He also clarified that acquiring these drones does not imply Albania intends to attack any country.
German Chancellor Scholz to Meet Turkish President Erdogan in Istanbul
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will meet Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul on October 19 to discuss the war in Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East, a German government spokesperson announced on October 11. The agenda will also include migration, bilateral and economic policy issues.
"The federal government is engaged in ongoing discussions with Turkey about migration policy, including repatriation cooperation," the spokesperson added.
SOHR: Turkey Bolsters Military Presence in Northern Syria with Over 190 Vehicles
Turkey deployed over 190 military vehicles, including armoured personnel carriers, tanks, and trucks loaded with logistical supplies and ammunition, to northern Syria between September 27 and October 10, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on October 11. These reinforcements were sent to areas controlled by Turkish-backed factions and Hayyaat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Idlib and Aleppo provinces.
This move is part of Turkey’s efforts to strengthen its military presence in the region and prevent potential clashes between HTS and Syrian regime forces. The reinforcements also aim to strengthen Turkey's military presence in the area, support observation posts, and boost combat readiness, the SOHR claimed.
Interior Minister: Turkey Hosts Over 4.3 Million Foreigners,
Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya revealed that as of October 4, 2024, Turkey hosts 1,045,722 foreigners with residence permits, 3,089,904 Syrians under temporary protection, and 213,169 individuals with international protection status.
Speaking at a migration conference organized by the Constitutional Court (AYM) and the Ministry of Interior on October 11, Yerlikaya said authorities conducted 1,678,000 identity checks using 270 Mobile Migration Point vehicles. 142,000 irregular migrants were identified and sent to repatriation centres, Yerlikaya added.
Turkish Foreign Minister to Visit Greece for Talks on Maritime and Airspace Issues
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will travel to Greece to address and seek solutions for various bilateral issues, including maritime zones and airspace, Turkish President Erdogan announced on October 12.
While returning from a visit to Serbia, Erdogan said, "As neighbouring countries, we can enhance security and stability and reduce the risk of conflict in the region through dialogue and cooperation."
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