ANALYSIS
"Arab States Race Turkey for Influence in New Syria" by Benoit Faucon and Summer Said, The Wall Street Journal
Saudi Arabia and other Arab states are jockeying for influence with Syria’s Islamist government, hoping to gain an advantage on rivals in the strategically positioned country despite misgivings about the jihadist past of its new leaders.
The kingdom, along with Jordan and Qatar, is rushing humanitarian aid and energy assistance to Syria’s war-weary population. The Arab states are betting that doing so could advance both narrow and strategic goals—from cutting the flow of drugs and radical fighters across Syria’s borders, to countering the influence of competitors such as Turkey and Iran.
Turkey has existing links with HTS and other groups that opposed Assad, giving Ankara a head start with Syria’s new government over its longstanding rival Saudi Arabia.
Riyadh, which lost out to Tehran in the race to exert influence in post-Saddam Hussein Iraq, is seeking to use aid in part as a way to counter Ankara’s moves in Syria, said analysts. Saudi Arabia’s “goal is to counterbalance Turkey’s significant role in the new Syria,” said Fawaz Gerges, a professor of international relations at the London School of Economics.
"How Turkey-PKK peace may usher change in Iraqi Kurdistan" by Bekir Aydogan, Amwaj.media
At the core of the unanticipated shift in policy towards the PKK is the Turkish fear that a diplomatically emboldened Israel could induce a realignment of Kurdish allegiances. Erdogan likely sees the peace process with the PKK as a means to get ahead of any potential moves by Tel Aviv to bring Kurdish groups into the fold.
Ending the conflict with the PKK, and the associated counter-insurgency operations, would also shore up domestic stability in Turkey and likely bolster the President’s political standing ahead of the 2028 elections. The Kurdish vote has historically played a pivotal role in Turkish politics. By engaging in dialogue with the PKK, Erdogan may hope to win over disillusioned Kurdish voters. Peace with the PKK could also provide a spoonful of populist sugar to the constitutional amendments needed for Erdogan to pursue a fourth term in 2028.
The KDP’s diplomatic backing for the nascent peace overture is likely rooted in its historical alliance with Ankara, as well as policymakers’ desire to see a reduction in PKK influence in Iraqi Kurdistan. If peace talks progress and lead to a formal agreement between Ankara and Ocalan’s faction of the PKK, it would become increasingly difficult for the Kurdish armed group to justify its continued presence in Iraq.
Despite these seemingly contrasting interests, a peace deal could ultimately turn out to be a boon for all parties. If the PKK does lay down its arms in Turkey, it would weaken one of Ankara’s primary justifications for its ongoing military presence in northern Iraq.
"Turkey doesn't seek conflict with Israel in Syria. Here's why" by Ragip Soylu, Middle East Eye
Apart from the fact that both Turkey and Israel are US allies, and the two sides have never engaged in a military conflict, Ankara has no appetite for such adventures - especially while the region is already grappling with an ongoing war between Iran and Israel, alongside the catastrophe unfolding in Gaza.
After hosting millions of Syrian refugees for more than a decade and conducting multiple military operations, which have cost Turkish lives and hundreds of millions of dollars, Ankara wants a Syria that can economically and socially flourish. A conflict with Israel, whether direct or indirect, does not align with that goal.
Furthermore, Turkey has reportedly taken the first steps to establish a deconfliction mechanism with the Israeli military in Syria. Turkey is mindful of Israeli concerns regarding such cooperation. What I hear is that Turkey's deployments will be limited. They would not go beyond Hama and, to some extent, Damascus - an effort to reassure Israel that Ankara’s actions are not hostile.
POLITICS
DEM Party Holds Talks with Political Leaders and Imprisoned Kurdish Figures on Peace Process
Delegates from Turkey's pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party) met with the ruling AK Party and opposition leaders on January 6-7 to discuss their recent meeting with imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan.
The DEM Party delegation first met Future Party Chairman Ahmet Davutoglu, who described the talks as a “sincere consultation” and called for calm during this “critical period.”
They also held discussions with Felicity Party (SP) Chair Mahmut Arikan, who found the meeting constructive and promised to follow up to support the process.
Later, the delegation met with senior AK Party figures, including parliamentary group chair Abdullah Guler and spokesperson Omer Celik.
On January 7, the delegation met with the Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA) Chair Ali Babacan and Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader Ozgur Ozel.
Ozel stated that the CHP would support any efforts to resolve Turkey's longstanding issues and prevent further losses.
Babacan stressed the importance of sincerity in the peace talks but noted uncertainty about President Erdoğan's stance on the issue. He highlighted that Erdoğan's approach would be crucial.
The DEM Party later met with Fatih Erbakan, leader of the New Welfare Party.
On January 11, the DEM Party delegation visited former HDP Co-chair Selahattin Demirtas and former Diyarbakir Mayor Selcuk Mizrakli at Edirne Prison. After the meeting, Sirri Sureyya Onder stated that both Demirtas and Mizrakli fully support the peace process.
Demirtas later shared his "full trust and support" on social media for Abdullah Ocalan's efforts toward a democratic solution and peace. He thanked the President and political leaders for their ongoing initiatives and urged swift action to build trust and create a clearer path forward.
On the same day, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, speaking at his party's Diyarbakir Provincial Congress, said, "It’s time to end the pain of the last half-century. A new and important window of opportunity has opened, and we shouldn’t waste it."
The delegation last met with the former HDP Co-Chair, Figen Yuksekdag, at Kocaeli Kandira Prison on January 12. After the meeting, Onder shared that Yuksekdag said, "We are ready to do whatever is needed."
The DEM Party plans to issue a comprehensive statement after meeting with Ocalan, which is expected to occur next week.
Erdogan and Bahceli Hold First Meeting of the Year
President Erdogan and MHP leader Devlet Bahceli met on January 10 at Bahceli's residence. Bahceli greeted Erdogan at the door for their first face-to-face meeting of the new year.
The 40-minute meeting likely focused on peace talks with the PKK. After the meeting, Bahceli accompanied Erdogan to the garden gate, but neither side made a public statement.
Imamoglu Criticizes Cancellation of TBB Delegation’s Damascus Visit
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu criticized the sudden cancellation of a planned visit by the Union of Turkish Municipalities (TBB) and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IBB) to Damascus.
Speaking at a ceremony, Imamoglu revealed that Damascus Governorate withdrew its approval just six hours after granting it, citing President Erdogan’s upcoming visit to Syria.
He questioned why the delegation’s visit was deemed inappropriate, pointing out that other Turkish officials have engaged with Syrian counterparts in the past.
Education Ministry Signs Controversial Protocol with Grey Wolves
The Ministry of National Education signed a protocol with Grey Wolves (Ülkü Ocakları), an organization affiliated with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), to organize general, vocational, and technical courses. The protocol reportedly came into effect on December 31, 2024.
Eğitim-Sen, the Education Workers' Union, criticized the move, stating, "Bringing a political organization with a dark past into schools undermines the core of our education system and violates the law." Eğitim-Sen Secretary General Zulkuf Gunes later announced they had filed a lawsuit to annul the protocol.
Two Opposition Figures Resign from Their Parties
On January 7, Umit Beyaz, a founding board member of the Good Party and a 27th-term Istanbul MP, resigned from the party following the resignation of Ankara MP Kursad Zorlu last week. Beyaz shared his resignation on X social media.
Burak Dalgin, the DEVA Party's MP from Balikesir, announced his resignation on X. Dalgin said the party had failed to make the radical changes voters had called for in the last two elections, emphasizing that continuing with the same approach would not lead to different results.
On January 8, DEVA Party Deputy Chair and Manisa MP Selma Aliye Kavaf resigned from the party, reducing the party's parliamentary seats to 10.
Opposition Leaders Unite to Form New Party 'New Road' in Parliament
DEVA Party Chairman Ali Babacan, Future Party Chairman Ahmet Davutoglu, and Felicity Party Chairman Mahmut Arikan met on January 9 to finalize plans for a joint parliamentary group.
They agreed to name the new party “New Road.” The legal process to establish the party will begin on Friday, January 10.
Request to Lift Legislative Immunity for 14 Deputies Submitted to Parliament
Seventeen new summaries of proceedings have been submitted to the Parliament, requesting the removal of legislative immunity for 14 deputies. CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel, Good Party Chairman Musavat Dervisoglu, and DEM Party Co-Chair Tulay Hatimogullari are among them.
ECONOMY
BofA and JPMorgan expect 30% policy rate by year-end
Bank of America updated its Turkey outlook, lowering its year-end dollar/TL estimate from 44 to 41 and predicting positive real interest rates throughout the year.
The bank expects a 250 basis point rate cut in January, instead of a pause, and forecasts the policy rate will drop to 30% by year-end after seven 250 basis point cuts.
Similarly, JPMorgan projects a 30% policy rate by year-end. With the Central Bank of Turkey reducing its meetings to 8 in 2025, JPMorgan anticipates three 250 basis point cuts and five 200 basis point cuts.
Turkey Accelerates Naval Expansion with 31 Ships Under Construction
Turkey's Defence Ministry announced that 31 naval ships are being built simultaneously at Turkish shipyards to meet the military's future needs including an aircraft carrier and a destroyer.
On January 9, the first welding for the National Submarine Project (Milden) took place at the Golcuk Shipyard Command. Additionally, construction began on the TF-2000 air defense destroyer and the national aircraft carrier (Mugem) at the Istanbul Shipyard Command.
This large-scale construction, estimated to cost over $8 billion, is expected to take 3–5 years for submarines and up to 8 years for the aircraft carrier.
Current projects also include five Reis-class submarines, seven I-class frigates, six OPV-2100 patrol vessels, eight modern landing craft tanks, a mine-hunting ship, and a fast attack craft.
Labor Minister Announces Pension Increases for Retirees
On January 7, Turkey's Minister of Labor and Social Security, Vedat Isikhan, announced increases in pensions for SSK, Bagkur, Retirement Fund, and civil servant retirees, as outlined in the legal regulations.
SSK and Bagkur retirees will see a 15.75% increase in their pensions, while Retirement Fund and civil servant retirees will benefit from an 11.54% raise. "We will raise the lowest SSK and Bagkur pension, currently at 12,500 lira, by the 6-month CPI rate of 15.75%," he said, bringing the lowest pension to 14,469 lira.
Isikhan also emphasized the need for legal adjustments to further increase the pension rate.
Turkey Sees Sharp Rise in Loan and Credit Card Debts
A report by the Banks Association of Turkey (TBB) revealed that 1.66 million people faced legal action over unpaid loans or credit card debts in the first 11 months of 2024. In November alone, 255,124 more people were added to this list, bringing the total number of individuals with ongoing debt-related legal cases to 2.42 million. Including debts transferred to asset management companies, the figure rose to 3.89 million by November.
According to the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK), overdue receivables in the banking sector totaled 287.5 billion TL by December 27. Individual debts accounted for 38.5% of this amount, with bad debt from personal loans and credit cards rising by 147% annually to 110.8 billion TL.
"Best EM Carry Trade Boosted by Turkey’s Inflation-Proofed Lira" by Tugce Ozsoy, Bloomberg
Turkey’s economic administration has been pursuing a policy of “real appreciation,” meaning that the lira weakens but by less than the rate of inflation. The aim is to minimize price pressures stemming from a weakening currency.
In its monetary policy report for 2025, the central bank said that lira-denominated assets would remain attractive to investors, indicating that inflation-adjusted appreciation is likely to remain a cornerstone of its disinflation policies. That’s good news for anyone investing in Turkish assets.
The carry trade involves borrowing in places and currencies where interest rates are relatively low, like the US, Europe and Japan, and investing those borrowed funds in places where rates are higher, such as Turkey. By ensuring a smooth and largely predictable exchange rate, the Turkish central bank has made the strategy significantly more attractive because it reduces the risk of sudden currency losses.
Over the past six months, investors who borrowed in dollars and invested in lira carry trades earned an average return of 15%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s nearly double the return on investments in Argentine pesos, the next closest contender.
HUMAN RIGHTS
ECtHR Convicts Greece Over Pushback of Turkish Citizen
The European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) ruled against Greece regarding the pushback of a Turkish citizen, A.R.E., in the Evros River in 2019. The court ordered Greece to pay €20,000 in compensation.
The ECtHR found Greece guilty of violating Article 3 (prohibition of torture), Article 13 (right to an effective remedy), and Article 5 (right to liberty and security) of the European Convention. These violations occurred during A.R.E.’s detention and forced return to Turkey. However, by a 6-1 vote, the court ruled there was no direct violation of Articles 2 and 3 related to risks of life and ill-treatment during refoulement.
Turkey’s Prisons Overcrowded by 27%, Report Reveals
The Civil Society Association in the Penal System (CISST) released its "January 2025 Prison Statistics," highlighting severe overcrowding in Turkey's prisons. As of January, the prison population reached 384,216, exceeding the total capacity of 301,397 by 27.48%, leaving 82,819 people over capacity.
The report also revealed a sharp rise in specific prisoner groups. Convicts comprise 85.55% of the total prison population, increasing by 11.40% in the last six months, reaching 328,708.
Child detainees aged 12-18 rose by 16.30% in six months to 3,738, while female prisoners increased by 16.61%, reaching 16,944. Prisons also house 759 children aged 0-6 who are staying with their mothers. Additionally, elderly inmates over 65 increased by 16.86% in six months, reaching 5,864.
Security Forces Detain 85 People in Recent Gulen Movement Operations
The Ankara Chief Public Prosecutor's Office conducted an operation as part of its investigation into the Gulen movement. Detention orders were issued for 37 people, and 22 were taken into custody. They are accused of aiding imprisoned movement members and their families.
Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced on X on January 8 that 63 more people were detained in operations across 38 provinces. They are accused of supporting the movement financially and spreading its propaganda.
Pro-Kurdish Mayor and 5 Others Detained in Terrorism Probe in Mersin
On January 10, Turkish police in Mersin detained Hosyar Sariyildiz, the pro-Kurdish mayor of the Akdeniz district, along with five other municipal officials, as part of a terrorism-related investigation.
Sariyildiz, his deputy Nuriye Arslan, and four other members of the municipal assembly were taken in for questioning. The police stated they were detained for alleged involvement in terrorist propaganda, membership in a terrorist organization, and violating laws to prevent terrorism financing.
The opposition DEM Party condemned the investigation, calling it a fabricated investigation aimed at justifying the appointment of trustees to manage Akdeniz. They described it as part of the government's ongoing efforts to undermine the people's will.
After their statements to the police, the co-chairs and council members were taken to the courthouse on January 12. Prosecutors accuse them of aiding, being members of, and financing an organization, citing secret witness testimonies.
FOREIGN POLICY
Erdogan Hosts KRG PM Barzani to Discuss Regional Stability
On January 7, President Erdogan hosted Iraqi KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani at the Presidential Complex in Ankara. The closed-door meeting also included Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.
Erdogan stressed Turkey’s commitment to preserving Iraq’s stability and security amid ongoing challenges in Syria. He emphasized the importance of preventing destabilization caused by terrorist groups.
The leaders also discussed strengthening regional projects, including the Development Road initiative, to promote economic growth and stability in Iraq and neighboring regions.
Turkey's Growing Influence in Kurdistan Region Politics: New Generation Movement Aligns with Ankara, Kurdistan Watch
Shaswar Abdulwahid, leader of the New Generation Movement - third-largest party after the KDP and PUK - met with Turkey’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Nuh Yılmaz, in Ankara.
This marks an intriguing development, especially considering that eight years ago, during New Generation’s first participation in Iraqi elections, the movement allied with the pro-PKK Tavgari Azadi, helping Tavgar secure its first seat in the Iraqi Parliament. Since then, Shaswar has adopted a more cautious approach in managing his relationships with regional powers, particularly Turkey. This shift has led many activists to accuse his media outlet, NRT TV, of being notably silent on Turkey’s military operations against the PKK in the Kurdistan Region and the SDF in Syria.
Trump Praises Erdoğan, Stays Silent on U.S. Troop Presence in Syria
Donald Trump, set to take office in the U.S. on January 20, declined to answer whether he would keep 2,000 American soldiers in Syria, saying, “I won’t tell you that because it’s part of the military strategy. But it’s about Turkey.”
Trump spoke warmly about President Erdoğan, calling him “a friend” he loves and respects. He added that he asked Erdoğan not to target the YPG/SDF and stated that Erdoğan honored this request.
Turkish Presidential Adviser Meets U.S. Delegation to Discuss Syria
On January 9, Akif Cagatay Kilic, Chief Adviser to the President on Foreign Policy and Security, met with Acting U.S. Under Secretary of State John Bass and his delegation at the Presidential Complex in Ankara.
Kilic shared details of the meeting on his social media account, noting that they discussed Syria's political transition, efforts to combat terrorism, and potential contributions to reconstruction, focusing on electricity and housing needs.
37 Killed in Clashes Between Turkish-Backed Forces and SDF in Manbij
On January 9, battles between Turkish-backed groups, supported by air strikes, and Kurdish-led forces killed 37 people in Syria's northern Manbij region, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
The casualties included mainly Turkish-backed fighters but also six Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighters and five civilians. The monitor reported that at least 322 people have died in the ongoing conflict in the Manbij countryside since last month.
Foreign Minister Fidan Attends Syria Meeting in Riyadh
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attended a Syria meeting in Riyadh on January 12, with Arab League member states participating. Fidan emphasized Turkey's readiness to help ease the challenges facing the Syrian people and strengthen the new administration's ability to fight ISIS. He noted that the main focus should be preserving Syria's territorial integrity and unity.
"If the 'SDF' is genuinely committed to integrating with the central government, it should announce its dissolution," Fidan added.
Fidan also met with top diplomats from the Middle East and Europe in the Saudi capital.
Israeli Committee Report Warns of Potential Threat from Turkey in Syria
An Israeli government commission reported on January 6 that Turkey could pose a greater threat to Israel than Iran in Syria if it backs a hostile “Sunni Islamist” force in Damascus.
The report warned that such a force could evolve into a Turkish proxy, reflecting Turkey's ambitions to revive its Ottoman-era influence. This scenario could raise the risk of a direct conflict between Turkey and Israel, the commission assessed.
The committee also highlighted that growing geopolitical instability in the region could escalate tensions between Turkey, Israel, and Egypt.
The committee proposed enhancing defense capabilities by acquiring advanced weaponry, including F-15 jets, drones, and satellites, while strengthening air defense with Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow, and Iron Beam systems. Despite potential diplomatic tensions with Jordan, they also suggested building a fortified security barrier along the Jordan Valley.
Turkey to Resume Flights to Syria's Damascus Soon
Turkey plans to launch flights to Syria's capital, Damascus, in the coming days, Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu announced on January 9.
The minister added that initial flights will operate with visual guidance due to limited technology at Damascus Airport, but regular flights between Istanbul and Damascus are expected to begin once the airport's radar system becomes operational.
Turkey Offers to Host Ukraine Peace Talks
Turkey is prepared to mediate and host peace talks on the Ukraine conflict, according to a source from the Turkish Foreign Ministry. The source told RIA Novosti that Turkey is ready to facilitate negotiations within a framework agreed upon by all parties.
However, the ministry noted that Turkey has not proposed any specific discussion plan.
Turkey and Jordan Discuss Key Regional Issues in High-Level Meeting
On January 6, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan met with his Jordanian counterpart, Ayman Safadi, to discuss the situation in Syria and its regional impact.
The two ministers focused on critical issues, including terrorism, Syria's territorial integrity, and the return of Syrian refugees. The meeting, held under the “3+3 format,” also included high-ranking officials such as Turkey’s National Defense Minister Yasar Guler, MIT President Ibrahim Kalin, and senior Jordanian military figures like General Yusuf al-Hunaiti and Major General Ahmed Husni.
Interior Minister: 52,622 Syrians Return to Their Homeland in December 2024
On January 9, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya announced that 52,622 Syrians voluntarily and safely returned to Syria in December 2024. The announcement was made at the Cilvegozu Border Gate in Hatay’s Reyhanli district.
Turkey currently hosts 2.88 million Syrians, the minister says. Since 2017, 792,625 Syrians have returned to their homeland.
Before December 8, the monthly average of returns was 11,066 Syrians, but in December alone, 52,622 Syrians returned, with 41,000 of them being families and the rest individuals.
.svg.png){kind=small}
