ANALYSIS
"A New Era in European Defense and Turkey" by Mustafa Enes Esen, The Institute for Diplomacy and Economy
While the U.S. imposes high tariffs on its allies in the economic field, it also signals a potential withdrawal from Europe's defense against Russia. Since increasing military capacity will take time, Turkey's role in this process is becoming more significant.
Having neglected serious investments in its armies for years, Europe will need time to strengthen its military capabilities. Turkey also appears eager to play a role in this transition. President Erdoğan emphasized his country's willingness to cooperate, stating, "Only Turkey can save the EU from the impasse it has found itself in, from economy to defense, from politics to international reputation."
The liberal order established by the U.S. is being profoundly shaken during Trump's second term. European nations are now preparing to take on greater defense responsibilities and enhance their military strength. Turkey is also expected to play a role in this long-term restructuring process.
"Iranians outraged as Turkey warns action in Syria will boomerang for Iran", Amwaj.media
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's warning that Iran will face instability if it makes any destabilizing move in Syria has sparked widespread condemnation in Tehran. As Iran's longtime Syrian ally Bashar Al-Assad has been toppled by Turkish-backed Sunni Islamists, some Iranians say Ankara now believes that Tehran is too weak to stand up to Turkey.
Vali Golmohammadi, an academic and Turkey expert, attributed Fidan's comments to Turkish concerns about Kurdish forces in Syria gravitating toward Iran. "There is this assumption that Syrian Kurds will, sooner or later, take steps toward Iran," Golmohammadi argued, saying that SDF is unsure about continued US support by the Donald Trump administration.
In a strategic pivot, Iran might consider deeper engagement with Syrian Kurds. Such a move could serve the dual purpose of counterbalancing Turkish influence and gaining leverage over Damascus's new rulers. However, a step in that direction will likely also spark a reaction from Ankara and HTS, not only in northwestern Iran but potentially also from Sunni extremists to the east of Iran.
"A Fragile Peace for Turkey and the Kurds" by Asli Aydintasbas, Wall Street Journal
There are plenty of reasons for cynicism, as Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has long completed his authoritarian lurch for consolidated power. His crackdown on secular rivals and Kurdish politicians continues unabated. Mr. Erdoğan has shown little interest in expanding democratic space inside Turkey. So why would he be magnanimous now?
The answer is self-interest, which is driving both sides in the current age of geopolitical turmoil. The chaotic signals from the Trump administration and breakdown of the trans-Atlantic order means that both Turks and the Kurds face a perilous neighborhood. Ankara can no longer count on NATO, and the Kurds can no longer count on an American presence in Syria.
Turkey's ruling elites finally understand that only a peace deal with the Kurds can create the conditions for the Pax-Turcica they seek and a zone of Turkish influence outside of their borders.
Mr. Erdoğan is likely more interested in peeling off the Kurds from Turkey's secular opposition block and enlisting their support for a new constitution that would allow him to run for a third presidential term.
"Why Turkey-EU relations need a fundamental rethink" by Oguz Arikboga, Middle East Eye
The new realities of the Trump era call for a radical change in approach from Brussels if the EU wants to be, as it has indicated, "more capable and better equipped to deal with immediate and future challenges to its security".
But as Turkey's potential role in a new European defence and security architecture becomes increasingly critical, viewing it solely through this lens would be a mistake. Ankara is unlikely to accept a framework limited to defence and security cooperation.
A tailored approach would allow Ankara to cooperate with the EU where their interests align, while maintaining its strategic autonomy on contentious issues. In the long run, a pragmatic, pillar-based framework would not only revitalise EU-Turkey relations, but also position both sides to address shared challenges more effectively.
"UAE's $51 Billion Pledge for Turkey Is Marred by Failed Deals" by Ugur Yilmaz and Asli Kandemir, Bloomberg
The United Arab Emirates' pledge to invest $51 billion in Turkey is faltering two years after it was announced, as a rebound in Ankara's economic fortunes emboldens local firms to hold firm on valuations and stifles deals.
Valuation disagreements have been a major sticking point, according to people familiar with the matter. Gulf investors, who often seek distressed assets at a discount, have struggled to find common ground with Turkish sellers reluctant to part with holdings at cut-rate valuations.
Policy makers have managed to avert a foreign-exchange reserves crisis and put the economy on sound footing by sticking to orthodox monetary policies. That turnaround made the UAE's cash less critical for Ankara.
POLITICS
Imamoglu Launches Campaign, Vows to End Erdogan's Rule
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu kicked off his campaign in Izmir on March 8, aiming to secure the presidential nomination of Turkey's main opposition party. He declared that President Erdogan's time in power was ending.
Addressing his supporters, Imamoglu promised to restore democracy, justice, and national unity. He accused Erdogan's government of weakening Turkey's democratic institutions through political pressure and divisive policies.
He also called on Republican People's Party (CHP) members to participate in the March 23 primary elections. It is the first time in the party's history that the presidential candidate will be chosen directly by its members.
Imamoglu Testifies Over Allegations About His University Degree
Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu testified to prosecutors on March 4 as part of an investigation into claims that he falsely obtained his university degree.
Spending an hour at the Istanbul Courthouse, Imamoglu denied the accusations of "falsification of an official document." He highlighted that the investigation has no legal basis and is politically motivated.
Bahceli: Ocalan's Call Includes PKK and Its Extensions
MHP Chairman Devlet Bahceli shared a statement on social media on March 9, saying the DEM Party's consistent and stable approach, along with its sensible and calm messages, could pave the way for it to become a national political party.
Bahceli also claimed that the era of armed violence is coming to an end. He said the latest call from outlawed PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan includes the PKK terrorist organization along with all its extensions and affiliated groups.
DEM Party Resumes Political Party Visits to Discuss Ocalan's Call
DEM Party has announced its meeting schedule with political parties regarding Abdullah Ocalan's call. Co-Chairs Tuncer Bakirhan and Tulay Hatimogullari will visit EMEP, CHP, and DEVA Party on March 10, followed by visits to TIP, Felicity Party, and Future Party on March 12. According to the schedule, the Co-Chairs will also visit the AK Party and MHP on March 17.
Turkish Top Defense Officials File Lawsuits Against CHP Leader Over Criticisms
Turkey's Minister of National Defense Yasar Guler, along with Chief of General Staff General Metin Gurak, Land Forces Commander General Selcuk Bayraktaroglu, and Naval Forces Commander Admiral Ercument Tatlioglu, have filed separate moral compensation lawsuits against CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel. The lawsuits stem from Ozel's criticisms regarding the dismissal of several lieutenants.
At a group meeting on February 25, Ozel claimed Lieutenant General Tevfik Algan, who added an annotation to the dismissal of five lieutenants, was forced to resign due to pressure. He accused the Land and Naval Forces Commanders of being responsible for the pressure on Algan.
CHP Deputy Chairman Gamze Tasciyer condemned the lawsuits, describing them as a political pressure tactic orchestrated by President Erdogan.
Beykoz Mayor Koseler Arrested in Tender Rigging Investigation
Fourteen people, including CHP Beykoz Mayor Alaattin Koseler, were arrested as part of an investigation into "rigging a tender," while six others were released on probation.
Koseler was taken into custody last week following an inquiry by the Beykoz Public Prosecutor's Office. After giving his statement at the prosecutor's office, he was referred to court with a request for arrest and was officially detained on March 4, along with 13 others.
Following Kosler's arrest, CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel criticized the decision on social media, calling it "a political decision and a shortsighted display of power."
Following his arrest, the Ministry of Interior announced Koseler's suspension from duty. The Istanbul Governor's Office stated that the deputy mayor election would occur on Monday, March 10.
Former Good Party MP Adnan Beker Joins CHP
Ankara MP Adnan Beker, who resigned from the Good Party on November 16, 2023, joined the CHP. CHP Chairman Ozgur Ozel welcomed him by pinning his badge during a group meeting on March 4.
Beker had revealed that in the May 28, 2023, presidential election, he voted for President Erdogan instead of his party's candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
ECONOMY
Turkey's Annual Inflation Drops Below 40% in February
Turkey's annual inflation fell to 39.05% in February, down from 42.1% in January, according to TurkStat on March 3. Monthly inflation also slowed, rising by 2.27% compared to 5% in the previous month.
Turkey's Central Bank Cuts Interest Rate Again as Inflation Falls
Turkey's central bank lowered its key interest rate for the third time in a row on March 6, as inflation dropped below 40% last month. The monetary policy committee reduced the policy rate from 45% in January to 42.5%, according to a statement from the bank.
"The tight monetary stance will continue until price stability is ensured through a sustained decline in inflation," the central bank said.
Government Assistance Surges Amid Economic Struggles
A recent Family and Social Services Ministry report revealed that households receiving financial support increased from 3.7 million in January to 4.5 million by year-end.
The government allocated 491.7 billion lira ($13.4 million) to social aid programs in 2024, a 61% rise from 2023, as millions struggled to cope with rising costs. The assistance included electricity subsidies for 4 million households, heating aid for 2.2 million, housing support for 21,380 families, and food aid for 4.2 million people.
Statistics from the ministry's assistance program for households with income below the hunger threshold also showed that the number of families receiving aid grew from 3.1 million in 2022 to 3.6 million last year.
17 Detained in Stock Market Manipulation Investigation
Turkish authorities have detained 17 people as part of an investigation into alleged manipulative price moves in the stock market on February 21. That day, the benchmark Borsa Istanbul 100 Index dropped by 3.4%.
The probe, launched on February 23, focuses on suspected attempts to influence share prices artificially. Authorities are also examining whether misleading news reports contributed to the market volatility.
On March 7, 12 of the 15 suspects referred to the courthouse were arrested, while the court released three people under judicial control.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Erdogan: 133,000 Syrians Have Returned Home Since Assad's Ouster
133,000 Syrians living in Turkey have returned to Syria in the past three months since Bashar al-Assad was toppled, President Erdogan announced.
"Since December 8, 133,000 Syrians have voluntarily returned to their homeland. As stability grows in Syria, this number will increase. We will not force anyone, but if our brothers and sisters wish to return, we will help facilitate their journey," Erdogan said.
ECHR Rules Turkey Violated Rights of 51 Former Judges and Prosecutors
The European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) ruled on March 4 that Turkey unlawfully detained 51 former members of the judiciary after the July 15 coup attempt.
In the Elibol and Others v. Turkey case, a three-judge committee found that Turkey had violated the applicants' right to liberty and security under Article 5 of the European Convention on Human Rights.
The court ordered Turkey to pay each applicant 5,000 euros in non-pecuniary damages.
Former HDP Co-chair Demirtas Visits His Wife in Hospital
Former HDP Co-chair Selahattin Demirtas, who is currently in prison, was taken from Edirne Prison to Istanbul to accompany his wife, Basak Demirtas, during her surgery.
DEM Party Istanbul MP Sirri Sureyya Onder shared a photo of Demirtas at the hospital. He stated that doctors decided on surgery due to Basak Demirtas's illness and that Selahattin Demirtas applied to the Ministry of Justice to accompany her. The request was conveyed to President Erdogan, who approved it.
Onder also noted that while Demirtas was at the hospital, MHP leader Devlet Bahceli called to wish Basak Demirtas a speedy recovery and thanked him for supporting the peace process.
FOREIGN POLICY
Five-Party Security Summit in Amman Focuses on Syria's Stability
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attended the Five-Party Security Summit in Amman, Jordan, on March 9. The meeting was also attended by Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler, National Intelligence Organization (MIT) Director Ibrahim Kalin, as well as the defense ministers, chiefs of general staff, and intelligence heads of Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria.
At a joint press conference after the summit, Fidan said discussions focused on Syria's stability, counterterrorism efforts, and regional security threats. He also announced that Turkey will host the next meeting.
In a joint statement issued after the press conference, the participating countries expressed their support for the Syrian people's efforts to rebuild their country on the basis of security, stability, sovereignty, and territorial integrity while ensuring their rights and safety.
Turkey Warns Against Escalating Violence in Latakia
Turkey's foreign ministry warned on March 7 that fighting in the western Syrian city of Latakia could undermine efforts to achieve unity and stability in Syria. Ministry spokesperson Oncu Keceli highlighted that "such provocations" must not be allowed to threaten peace.
It was Turkey's first statement on the clashes between Syrian security forces and fighters believed to be linked to ousted leader Bashar al-Assad.
Turkey and UK Hold Talks on Syria in Ankara
Turkey and the United Kingdom held consultations on Syria in Ankara on March 3, chaired by Turkish Deputy Minister Nuh Yilmaz and UK Minister for the Middle East and North Africa Hamish Falconer.
During the meeting, both sides exchanged views on regional issues, focusing on Syria. Discussions included Syria's reconstruction, economic development, and lifting sanctions against Syria without preconditions. The two countries agreed to continue consultations on regional matters, particularly Syria.
Diplomatic Tensions Rise Between Iran and Turkey Over Syria Comments
Iran and Turkey's foreign ministries summoned each other's envoys following a diplomatic dispute over Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's remarks about Tehran's role in Syria's stability.
Iran's foreign ministry called in Turkey's ambassador after Fidan's comments, state TV reported on March 4. The following day, Turkey summoned Iran's charges d'affaires in Ankara.
Fidan had stated in a recent interview with Qatar's Al Jazeera that Iran's foreign policy, which relies on militias, was "dangerous" and needed to change. He also warned, "If you try to cause anxiety in a third country, other countries may disturb you by supporting groups in your own country."
Turkey Denies Reports of New Military Bases and F-16 Interceptions in Syria
The Turkish Ministry of Defense has denied claims that it is building new military bases in Syria or that Turkish F-16s recently intercepted Israeli fighter jets over Damascus. The statement comes after Israeli media reports claimed that Turkey plans to establish three military bases in Syria.
The ministry also rejected social media claims that Turkish F-16s were deployed to intercept Israeli jets near Damascus.
Report: Baykar Secretly Supplied Drones to Sudan Despite Sanctions
Baykar, Turkey's largest defense contractor, secretly supplied $120 million worth of drones and warheads to the Sudanese military despite international sanctions, according to an exclusive report by The Washington Post.
Based on leaked documents, messages, and financial records, the report reveals that Baykar delivered at least eight TB2 drones and 600 warheads to Sudan in 2023. The shipments, which included technical support, were routed through intermediaries and reached military bases amid the ongoing civil war.
The report also claims that Turkish defense companies have worked with both sides of the conflict. While Baykar armed the Sudanese military, another Turkish firm, Arca Defense, allegedly communicated with top officials of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The US accuses RSF of war crimes and ethnic cleansing.
Erdogan and Aliyev Inaugurate Igdir-Nakhchivan Gas Pipeline
President Erdogan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev attended the live-streamed opening ceremony of the Igdir-Nakhchivan Natural Gas Pipeline on March 5 at the Presidential Palace in Ankara. Before the event, Erdogan welcomed Aliyev with an official ceremony.
Speaking before the ceremony, Erdogan said, "The Igdir-Nakhchivan Natural Gas Pipeline will complement our previous strategic initiatives in the energy sector." He highlighted efforts to strengthen energy cooperation through projects like the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Crude Oil Pipeline, the Shah Deniz Gas Field, and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum Natural Gas Pipeline.
Aliyev highlighted that the new pipeline will secure Nakhchivan's energy supply. He noted that gas from Azerbaijan will now reach Nakhchivan through Turkey, solving the region's energy issues.
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