Since the Turkish presidential elections in May, a much friendlier atmosphere has prevailed in Turkish-American relations, as seen at the 2023 NATO Summit at Vilnius. Although this reconciliation hardly means a return to the strategic alliance concept, it is not fully transactional either. Hanging in the air between alliance and transactionalism, the future of Turkish-American relations depends on the course of the war in Ukraine and Turkish support for the Ukrainian cause.

Turkish President Erdogan failed to convince the Russian President to revive the Grain Deal during his visit to Sochi. Nonetheless, Turkey's bilateral relations with Russia continue to flourish, even amid Turkey's renewed cooperation with its Western allies. However, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine could create tension in their relationship and make it more difficult for Turkey to maintain a delicate balance between NATO and Russia.

Turkey’s tightening censorship regime continues to challenge its relations with the western countries. The Turkish authorities, last week, gave 72 hours for Voice of America (VOA) Türkçe and Deutsche Welle (DW) Türkçe to register as an internet broadcaster. Otherwise, they will either stop their activities or their administrative boards will face imprisonment in Turkey. Washington and Ankara want to configure their relationship on a transactional basis, but as Turkey’s authoritarian practices deepen, Turkey’s authoritarian drift continue to be a challenge for Turkish-American relations.

Turkey’s main opposition party, CHP, has not yet recovered from the trauma of its recent election defeat. Despite the challenges posed by President Erdogan's extensive access to public resources for campaigning, his complete control over the media, and various election manipulations, it was a notable achievement for Kilicdaroglu to secure 48% of the votes. However, a segment of the opposition holds the view that Kilicdaroglu, who has been leading the party for 13 years, cannot fully realize the CHP’s potential. This discrepancy between expectations and reality is causing instability within the CHP's leadership.

Turkey and the Gulf countries have initiated a normalization process since the al-Ula Summit in late 2020. The leaders have mended fences through high-level visits, diplomatic overtures, promises of investments, and dozens of agreements. Turkey has already started to reap the benefits of normalization in terms of economic and diplomatic relations. It is difficult to forecast how long this period of authoritarian peace will last, but it is promising to witness the success of diplomacy in the region.

Turkey has left behind its election period with the second round of presidential runoff on May 28. Proving his invincibility to economic woes, natural disasters, and refuge crisis, Erdogan won another victory against the opposition coalition. But Erdogan is not the only winner of the elections. Turkish nationalism continues to gain momentum in the Turkish politics. However, it is important to note that nationalism may lead to greater repression within domestic politics. Paradoxically, President Erdogan appears to adopt a more diplomatic approach to foreign policy.

28 Temmuz 2024 Pazar günü Venezuela'da gerçekleştirilen tek turlu başkanlık seçimi sonuçlarını instituDE üyesi ve Latin Amerika Uzmanı Dr. İmdat Öner ile instituDE Dış Politika Analisti Haşim Tekineş değerlendirdiler.

Orta Doğu uzmanı Mehmet Akif Koç ve instituDE Dış Politika Analisti Haşim Tekineş İran'ın yeni cumhurbaşkanı Mesud Pezişkiyân'ı, reformist olup olmadığını, nasıl bir profile sahip olduğunu, seçim sonuçlarına dair çeşitli detayları ve bir sonraki İran ruhani lideri dahil olmak üzere pek çok hususu ele aldılar.

ran ve Ortadoğu uzmanı Mehmet Akif Koç ve instituDE politika analisti Haşim Tekineş'in 19 Mayıs Pazar akşamı saat 20.00'den itibaren gerçekleştirdikleri, İran cumhurbaşkanı Reisi'nin helikopter kazası hakkındaki twitter Space yayınımızın kaydıdır.

18 Ekim Çarşamba günü Ömer Güler, Enes Esen, Servet Akman, Haşim Tekineş ve İmdat Öner İsrail-Hamas Savaşı'na dair hastane saldırısı dahil son gelişmeleri, Gazze'ye kara harekatını, Türkiye'nin gelişmelere dair tepkilerini ve savaşın küresel ve bölgesel sonuçlarını Twitter Space yayınında ele aldılar.

Regional backlash against Washington’s unilateral interventionist policies, viewing the region only through security lenses, lack of social, economic, and cultural policies, and U.S. support for authoritarian regimes has created the conditions for conspiracy theories such as BOP.

As the U.S. presidential elections loom later this year, current polls point to the possibility of another term for Donald Trump. Given the tumultuous impact of Trump’s previous presidency, this prospect raises significant concerns for the Middle East.

Two major earthquakes, with magnitudes of 7.8 and 7.5, rocked southeast Turkey within 10 hours on February 6. They struck a large area including 10 provinces with 13 million people. Winter conditions posed a further challenge to recovering thousands of survivors trapped under debris and slowed down search and rescue operations. Thus, the earthquakes caused a devastating human tragedy. However, they also became a regime test that revealed the scale of misgovernment and the consequences of crony capitalism in Turkey – eliciting reactions from victims and citizens alike.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has established his authoritarian regime by eliminating his rivals one by one throughout the last two decades. In his battles with the Kemalist generals, Gulenists, and Kurds, Erdoğan has come out victorious at every turn. But although his rule is incontestable today, he still shares the fruits of his victories with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP)—his only remaining ally for the past five years.

Atransactional relationship is increasingly seen as the only solution for the future of U.S.-Turkey relations. As the relationship has lost its values-based spirit and diplomatic crises have exhausted both sides, a business-like understanding has emerged as a last attempt to keep the relationship alive. Yet, as even transactional relations have significant shortcomings, Washington and Ankara should be prepared for a messy divorce.

For U.S. policymakers, it will be necessary to determine how best to reconfigure American strategy in the Middle East in an age of new hegemonic struggles. From the U.S. perspective, withdrawal or retreat from the region does not necessarily reflect the true nature of the policy change. Regional actors, however, are likely to have the opposite perspective—that the United States is much less interested in Middle Eastern regional issues than it has been in the past.

Evolution of Erdoğan's Victory Speeches From 2002 to 2023

Rusya’nın Ukrayna’yı işgali büyük güçler arasında son yıllarda artan rekabetin nerelere varabileceğini çok açık bir şekilde herkese göstermiş oldu. Y kuşağının tarih kitaplarından okuduğu felaket senaryolarının günümüzde de pekâlâ yaşanabileceğini görmüş olduk.